Showing papers on "Voting behavior published in 2006"
TL;DR: This article examined two aspects of personality that may influence political choice, traits and personal values, using the Five Factor Model of personality traits and the Schwartz (1992) theory of basic personal values.
Abstract: Voters' political choices have presumably come to depend more on their personal preferences and less on their social characteristics in Western democracies. We examine two aspects of personality that may influence political choice, traits and personal values, using the Five Factor Model of personality traits and the Schwartz (1992) theory of basic personal values. Data from 3044 voters for the major coalitions in the Italian national election of 2001 showed that supporters of the two coalitions differed in traits and values, largely as hypothesized. Center-left voters were higher than center-right voters in the traits of friendliness and openness and lower in energy and conscientiousness. Regarding values, center-left voters were higher than center-right voters in universalism, benevolence, and self-direction and lower in security, power, achievement, conformity, and tradition. Logistic regressions revealed that values explained substantial variance in past and future voting and in change of political choice, trumping personality traits. We discuss explanations for the primacy of values and implications for the social cognitive view of personality.
697 citations
TL;DR: The authors analytically confronts the often contradictory results of the available evidence and sketches the broad outline of a preliminary theory on the relationship between the media and the political agenda, which is contingent upon a number of conditions.
Abstract: Recently the study of the relationship between the media and the political agenda has received growing attention of both media and political science scholars. However, these research efforts have not led to a general discussion or a real theory on the media’s political agenda setting power. This article first analytically confronts the often contradictory results of the available evidence. Then, it sketches the broad outline of a preliminary theory. Political agenda setting by the media is contingent upon a number of conditions. The input variables of the model are the kind of issues covered, the specific media outlet, and the sort of coverage. Political context variables, the features of the political actors at stake, are at the heart of the model. The model proposes five sorts of output ranging from no political adoption to fast substantial adoption of media issues.
559 citations
Book•
26 Jun 2006TL;DR: In this article, the authors propose a paradigm shifting framework for studying voter decision making, and propose a new normative focus for the scientific study of voting behavior: we should care about not just which candidate received the most votes, but also how many citizens voted correctly - in accordance with their own fully-informed preferences.
Abstract: This book attempts to redirect the field of voting behavior research by proposing a paradigm-shifting framework for studying voter decision making. An innovative experimental methodology is presented for getting 'inside the heads' of citizens as they confront the overwhelming rush of information from modern presidential election campaigns. Four broad theoretically-defined types of decision strategies that voters employ to help decide which candidate to support are described and operationally-defined. Individual and campaign-related factors that lead voters to adopt one or another of these strategies are examined. Most importantly, this research proposes a new normative focus for the scientific study of voting behavior: we should care about not just which candidate received the most votes, but also how many citizens voted correctly - that is, in accordance with their own fully-informed preferences.
500 citations
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TL;DR: Gender differences in political behavior are a source of ongoing interest for political pundits, campaign advisors, and students of American politics as mentioned in this paper, and even small shifts in the political choices of men and women can have significant electoral consequences.
Abstract: Gender differences in political behavior are a source of ongoing interest for political pundits, campaign advisors, and students of American politics. In a closely divided nation, even small shifts in the political choices of men and women can have significant electoral consequences. In politics, the gender gap refers to male-female differences in party identification and voting behavior. As a practical matter, the contemporary gender gap (with women more aligned with the Democratic Party) emerged in 1964 with the election of Lyndon B. Johnson. The gender divide has grown incrementally over time, hitting a contemporary high of 14 percentage points in 1996 (see Figure 1). Since then, the size of the political difference between men and women has declined somewhat; the 2004 gender gap in party identification and voting fell to 9.5 and 7 points, respectively. The 2004 vote gap was half of what it was at its apex in 1996, and while one hesitates to make too much of a single point on this larger time series, a sustained contraction of the gender gap could pose rather dire circumstances for the Democratic Party, or, conversely, great fortune for the Republicans.
408 citations
TL;DR: This paper showed that the electoral relevance of political talk depends heavily on the political expertise imbedded in discussion networks and that the level of political sophistication in a person's social network exerts a positive influence on participation.
Abstract: Although people with larger, more politicized social networks are more likely to participate in elections, we know very little about what drives this relationship. I argue that the electoral relevance of political talk depends heavily on the political expertise imbedded in discussion networks. Using data gathered during the 1996 presidential election, I demonstrate that the level of political sophistication in a person’s social network exerts a positive influence on participation. Importantly, this effect is greater than the impact of political preferences in the network, the factor that is implicitly considered to be the main link between networks and involvement. This evidence makes two contributions to research on networks and participation. First, it provides support for a theoretical model that better accounts for research on the relationship between political talk, political disagreement, and involvement. Second, it changes the normative implications associated with political talk by suggesting that networks can encourage both higher levels of involvement and increased consideration of differing viewpoints.
295 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examine the role of foreign affairs in public opinion and voting at that low point of view and find that the public holds reasonably sensible and nuanced views, that these help shape their political behaviors and that these, in turn, help shape and constrain foreign policy making.
Abstract: ▪ Abstract Public opinion is central to representation, democratic accountability, and decision making. Yet, the public was long believed to be relatively uninterested in foreign affairs, absent an immediate threat to safety and welfare. It had become conventional to say that “voting ends at water's edge.” We start the examination of the scholarly understanding of the role of foreign affairs in public opinion and voting at that low point of view. Much subsequent development saw an increasing degree of holding and using of attitudes and beliefs about foreign affairs among the public. Moving in parallel with developments in political psychology, theoretical and methodological advances led to an increasingly widely shared view that the public holds reasonably sensible and nuanced views, that these help shape their political behaviors, and that these, in turn, help shape and constrain foreign policy making.
277 citations
TL;DR: The authors argue that the political control literature misses evidence from other academic literature that bears directly on this phenomenon and that researchers need to consider the values of the bureaucracy in any effort to assess the degree of political control.
Abstract: The literature on political control of bureaucracy reveals that bureaucracies are highly responsive to political forces. This paper argues that the political control literature misses evidence from other academic literature that bears directly on this phenomenon. Specifically, researchers need to consider the values of the bureaucracy in any effort to assess the degree of political control. An empirical test is presented using a data set from public education. Results show bureaucratic values to be far more influential in explaining bureaucratic outputs and outcomes than political factors. These findings suggest that a reinterpretation of previous empirical research is urgently in order.
225 citations
TL;DR: This paper found that party identification is much more strongly related to voters' ideological preferences than to their social identities as defined by their group memberships, and that the relationship between ideology and party identification has increased dramatically.
Abstract: This article uses data from the 1952-2004 American National Election Studies and the 2004 U.S. National Exit Poll to compare the influence of ideology and membership in social groups on party identification. Contrary to the claim by Green, Palmquist, and Schickler (2002) that party loyalties are rooted in voters’ social identities, we find that party identification is much more strongly related to voters’ ideological preferences than to their social identities as defined by their group memberships. Since the 1970s, Republican identification has increased substantially among whites inside and outside of the South with the most dramatic gains occurring among married voters, men, and Catholics. Within these subgroups, however, Republican gains have occurred mainly or exclusively among self-identified conservatives. As a result, the relationship between ideology and party identification has increased dramatically. This has important implications for voting behavior. Increased consistency between ideology and ...
225 citations
TL;DR: The authors found that white voters without college degrees have become significantly less Democratic; however, the contours of that shift bear little resemblance to Frank's account, and most of his white working-class voters see themselves as closer to the Democratic Party on social issues like abortion and gender roles but closer to Republican Party on economic issues.
Abstract: Thomas Frank’s What’s the Matter with Kansas? asserts that the Republican Party has forged a new “dominant political coalition” by attracting working-class white voters on the basis of “class animus” and “cultural wedge issues like guns and abortion.” My analysis confirms that white voters without college degrees have become significantly less Democratic; however, the contours of that shift bear little resemblance to Frank’s account. First, the trend is almost entirely confined to the South, where Democratic support was artificially inflated by the one-party system of the Jim Crow era of legalized racial segregation. (Outside the South, support for Democratic presidential candidates among whites without college degrees has fallen by a total of one percentage point over the past half-century.) Second, there is no evidence that “culture outweighs economics as a matter of public concern” among Frank’s working-class white voters. The apparent political significance of social issues has increased substantially over the past 20 years, but more among better-educated white voters than among those without college degrees. In both groups, economic issues continue to be most important. Finally, contrary to Frank’s account, most of his white working-class voters see themselves as closer to the Democratic Party on social issues like abortion and gender roles but closer to the Republican Party on economic issues.
223 citations
TL;DR: This paper examined the extent to which constituency and sub-constituency preferences are reflected in roll call voting in the 106th House and found that only majority party Republicans are especially responsive to the preferences of same-party constituents.
Abstract: This paper examines the extent to which constituency and subconstituency preferences are reflected in roll-call voting in the 106th House. Aggregating 100,814 randomly selected respondents to measure subconstituency preferences provides an unprecedented ability to measure subconstituency preferences in the House. Looking at the relationship over all votes, “key votes,” and on individual votes confirms that representatives are not completely responsive to the district mean voter, that only majority party Republicans are especially responsive to the preferences of same-party constituents, and that same-party constituency preferences cannot entirely account for systematic differences in Republican and Democratic voting behavior.
221 citations
TL;DR: In all South African elections since 1994, race has been an overwhelming predictor of voting behavior for most of the South African electorate as mentioned in this paper, and they evaluated three explanations for this outcome: an expressive hypothesis, which sees voting as an act of identity expression; a politics-as-usual approach, which points to standard factors like policy preferences or performance evaluations; and a racial heuristics approach, suggesting that voters use race as a cognitive shortcut during elections.
Abstract: In all South African elections since 1994, race has been an overwhelming predictor of voting behavior for most of the South African electorate. This paper evaluates three explanations for this outcome: an expressive hypothesis, which sees voting as an act of identity expression; a politics-as-usual approach, which points to standard factors like policy preferences or performance evaluations; and a racial heuristics approach, which suggests that voters use race as a cognitive shortcut during elections. It finds that racial heuristics, combined with performance evaluations, provide the best explanation for South Africa's racial census.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors draw on work in both political and social psychology to develop a theoretical framework consistent with the federalist view of democratic representation to explain how people make voting decisions and find that while citizens do make distinctions among levels of government when evaluating issues, they only link these distinctions to their voting decisions if those issue attitudes are highly accessible.
Abstract: Federalism is designed to enhance democratic representation because it gives citizens the opportunity to shape policymaking at multiple levels of government. This design feature is premised on the assumption that individuals make distinctions in the responsibilities that pertain to different levels of government and link these distinctions to their voting decisions. Citizens are expected to sanction politicians for those policy decisions over which their level of government has responsibility. This paper draws on work in both political and social psychology to develop a theoretical framework consistent with the federalist view of democratic representation to explain how people make voting decisions. Individuals who were able to vote in elections at all three levels of government (national, state, and local) in 2002 were surveyed, allowing a full test of the federalist voting model. Findings show that while citizens do make distinctions among levels of government when evaluating issues, they only link these distinctions to their voting decisions if those issue attitudes are highly accessible. Implications for democratic representation and future research are discussed.
TL;DR: This article examined non-Hispanic whites' voting behavior on three California ballot initiatives: Propositions 187, 209, and 227, and found that whites' decisions were shaped by their political context.
Abstract: Does context—racial, economic, fiscal, and political—affect whites’ votes on racially-related ballot propositions? We examine non-Hispanic whites’ voting behavior on three California ballot initiatives: Propositions 187, 209, and 227. Unlike previous analyses that lacked individual-level data and were therefore limited to ecological inference, we combine individual-level data from exit polls with county-level contextual variables in a hierarchical linear model. Racial/ethnic context affected whites’ votes only on Proposition 187, economic context had no influence on vote choice, and the effect of fiscal context was limited to Proposition 227. However, across the propositions, whites’ decisions were shaped by their political context. Thus, we do not find support for the “racial threat” hypothesis across all racially-charged issues.
TL;DR: This article investigated trends and cross-national variation in the impact of class, religious, and gender cleavages on voting behavior in six advanced capitalist democracies in the postwar period using multinomial logistic regression models.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigated how and why political knowledge varies between citizens and found that the effect of education varies with the country's degree of economic redistribution, and that political knowledge is less contingent on education attained than in more inegalitarian countries.
Abstract: Political knowledge is a powerful predictor of political participation. Moreover, what citizens know about the political system and its actors is a central aspect of informed voting. This article investigates how and why political knowledge varies between citizens. The analysis is comparative and based on data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems. At the micro level, the results confirm results from national surveys – specifically that education explains what citizens know about politics. It is found in a contextualized analysis, however, that the effect of education varies with the country’s degree of economic redistribution. In more egalitarian countries, political knowledge is less contingent on education attained than in more inegalitarian countries. Similarly, education seems to have a stronger effect in countries with majoritarian electoral systems compared to countries with proportional systems. The political knowledge of the citizenry is a key aspect of democracy. Democratic theorists from John Stuart Mill to Robert Dahl have stressed the importance of political information in democratic decision making. Since representative democracy is based on the delegation of power from citizens to representatives, the defining moment is at the time of elections: for democracy to function properly, electors need to have sufficient knowledge of the political system and the political actors in order to cast a meaningful vote. If they are to ensure that political parties and leaders are accountable for their actions, voters need information to evaluate their performance. They need to be able to compare parties’ commitments and manifestos in a prospective manner against their own political preferences and, in retrospect, to know enough about the parties’ record to give some weight to the credibility of their commitments (Manin et al. 1999, 44 – 6). Even though contemporary democratic political systems are egalitarian in principle (i.e. they are based on universal suffrage where every citizen has a vote), practice is less egalitarian since ‘citizens are differently endowed with resources that can be used for political activity and influence’ (Verba et al.
TL;DR: The authors examined the extent to which voters engage in strategic behavior when presented with the opportunity to do so, and found that the willingness of voters to act in a strategic fashion is significantly greater than reported in previous studies.
TL;DR: The Political Engagement Project as mentioned in this paper studied the effects of 21 different courses and programs on a diverse group of young adults, including college students and recent graduates, on their political engagement.
Abstract: Political participation is critical for the legitimacy of democracy, yet we know surprisingly little about how political competencies develop and can be promoted in young adults. Many studies show low levels of political activity among young Americans, including college students and recent graduates. Although this is widely recognized as a problem, there is little research on specific experiences and practices that show promise for increasing political understanding and involvement among young people. In addition, much existing research on political life focuses on a narrow set of activities, especially voting, rather than on the multiple dimensions of responsible political engagement, dimensions such as the understanding, skills, and motivations that support and enhance many forms of active democratic citizenship. This article describes and shares initial results from a pre- and postsurvey used in The Political Engagement Project, a study of the effects of 21 different courses and programs on a diverse g...
TL;DR: In this article, the authors provide a more actor-oriented approach to the construction of political news by looking at the competition over news exposure during political waves in Israel, which are sudden and significant changes in the political environment that are characterized by a substantial increase in the amount of public attention centered on a political issue or event.
Abstract: The study is meant to provide a more actor-oriented approach to the construction of political news by looking at the competition over news exposure during political waves in Israel. Political waves are sudden and significant changes in the political environment that are characterized by a substantial increase in the amount of public attention centered on a political issue or event. A theoretical model is presented that attempts to explain who initiates political waves, which types of waves provide the most opportunities for the participation of different types of political actors, and which actors are in the best position to be included when different types of waves are covered in the news media. Four major hypotheses are developed that focus on both the nature of the wave and the individual characteristics of the political actors who are competing for exposure. Among the most important individual traits are charismatic communication skills, political standing, and the extent to which the individual can b...
TL;DR: The authors developed directions of thought for evaluating how faithfully political narratives represent "political reality", and suggested several strategies for performing this evaluation based on the analysis of political narratives. But, they did not consider the relationship between political narratives and political reality.
Abstract: This article develops directions of thought for evaluating how faithfully political narratives represent “political reality,” and suggests several strategies for performing this evaluation. Based o...
TL;DR: In this article, the influence of the IMF and World Bank on voting patterns in the UN General Assembly was analyzed using panel data for about 100 countries over the period 1970-2002, showing that countries receiving concessional IMF loans are significantly more likely to vote with the G7 countries, while (nonconcessional) money from the IBRD significantly reduces voting coincidence.
Abstract: Using panel data for about 100 countries over the period 1970-2002 this paper analyzes empirically the influence of the IMF and the World Bank on voting patterns in the UN General Assembly. The main hypotheses tested relate to the impact of overall foreign aid, and IMF and World Bank loans in particular. The influence of trade and foreign direct investment, democracy, dependence, and cultural as well as political proximity on voting behavior is also analyzed. Our results, based on Extreme Bounds Analysis, show that countries receiving concessional IMF loans are significantly more likely to vote with the G7 countries, while (non-concessional) money from the IBRD significantly reduces voting coincidence. Bilateral aid from G7 countries is not robustly related to voting in the General Assembly.
TL;DR: The increase in the number of women candidates in American politics has raised questions about whether the presence of these women has an impact on the public by mobilizing attitudes and behaviors.
Abstract: The increase in the number of women candidates in American politics has raised questions about whether the presence of these women has an impact on the public by mobilizing attitudes and behaviors....
01 Jan 2006
TL;DR: This article found that illiterates are twice as likely to vote as those who can read in Egypt, and that the votes of illiterates tend to be cheaper to purchase by political entrepreneurs and are also more vulnerable to intimidation by state authorities.
Abstract: This paper examines voter behavior in Egypt, an electoral authoritarian country. While some voters cast their ballots on an ideological basis, many Egyptian voters expect to receive a direct material beneflt for their vote. Although voter turnout is associated with higher levels of education in developed democracies, I flnd that in Egypt, illiterates are twice as likely to vote as those who can read. This is because the votes of illiterates tend to be cheaper to purchase by political entrepreneurs, and illiterates are also more vulnerable to intimidation by state authorities. These flndings have implications for our understanding of clientelistic politics, electoral authoritarianism, and accountability in autocratic regimes.
TL;DR: In this article, a model on voting behavior in referendums was developed to examine how and to what extent parties can influence the outcome of a referendum by influencing voters' perceptions of the issue on the ballot.
Abstract: Direct democracy allows citizens to undercut the will of their elected representatives. Yet, while the electorate has the final say in referendums, political parties are in a privileged position to influence voters’ perceptions of the issue on the ballot. By developing a model on voting behaviour in referendums, this article examines how and to what extent parties can influence referendum outcomes. It argues that as pivotal information providers in referendum campaigns, political parties can influence the framing of and uncertainty associated with the ballot proposal and thus, in turn, affect voting behaviour. These propositions are evaluated empirically in a ‘controlled comparison’ of the two Danish referendums on the Maastricht Treaty, as these cases allow us to examine how changes in party strategies affect changes in referendum outcomes.
TL;DR: The study stresses the complementary role of Web news use and online political discussion relative to traditional modes of political communication in spurring political participation.
Abstract: This case study examines how traditional and Internet news use, as well as face-to-face and online political discussion, contributed to political participation during the period leading up to the Iraq War. A Web-based survey of political dissenters (N = 307) conducted at the start of the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq provides the data used to examine the relationships among informational media use, online and face-to-face political discussion, and political participation among the respondents, who were recruited through blogs, discussion boards, and listservs opposing the Iraq war. Analyses reveal that among these respondents, Internet news use contributed to both face-to-face and online discussion about the situation in Iraq. Online and face-to-face political discussion mediated certain news media effects on anti-war political participation. The study stresses the complementary role of Web news use and online political discussion relative to traditional modes of political communication in spurring political participation.
TL;DR: This paper found that the negative relationship typically demonstrated between both religious commitment and doctrinal orthodoxy to political tolerance does not manifest and that religion is insignificant vis-a-vis political and psychological determinants of political tolerance.
Abstract: While there has been numerous empirical works on political tolerance in the United States, many of these studies have not: addressed the role of religion, used adequate measures of religion, incorporated advances in the measurement of political tolerance, and/or included all the psychological and political predictors of political tolerance. Correcting these deficiencies, I present and test a religious model of political tolerance utilizing structural equation modeling. I find that the negative relationship typically demonstrated between both religious commitment and doctrinal orthodoxy to political tolerance does not manifest and that religion is insignificant vis-a-vis political and psychological determinants of political tolerance.
TL;DR: This paper analyzed the meaning and context of media coverage and political public relations during the national debate on immigration in Germany between May 2000 and March 2002 and found a high level of correlation between the preferred thematic and position frames of the political players and those in the press coverage.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors identify a set of distinct hypotheses for why one might expect residents of inner cities and suburbs to differ in their political views, and empirically test the relative contribution of each of the hypothesized mechanisms in explaining the geography of party preferences.
Abstract: Recent research conducted in both the United States and Canada has found that residents of inner cities and suburbs are diverging in their voting behavior and political attitudes. The mechanisms producing such a divergence, however, have remained unclear. After identifying a set of distinct hypotheses for why one might expect residents of inner cities and suburbs to differ in their political views, this article draws on a survey undertaken by the author in one electoral district in the Toronto region to empirically test the relative contribution of each of the hypothesized mechanisms in explaining the geography of party preferences. This study suggests there is no single explanation for the city-suburban cleavage, and that the mechanisms producing it are complex. Spatial segregation (based on individual attributes such as race, ethnicity, and class) is clearly important; however neighborhood self-selection, local experience, and, to a lesser extent, mode of consumption all have significant independent eff...
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors consider to what extent one of the most widely tested and supported theories of the European Union (EU) welcomed its new member states from Central and Eastern Europe.
Abstract: On 1 May 2004, the European Union (EU) welcomed its new member states from Central and Eastern Europe. This paper considers to what extent one of the most widely tested and supported theories of vo...
Posted Content•
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigate the role of partisan and opportunistic political factors, as opposed to economic fundamentals, in the evolution of government size, and they show that an overtly political factor can be said to play a distinct role in public choices if it can be shown to lead to departures from a dynamic path defined by the evolution in economic fundamentals in a competitive political system.
Abstract: We address the problem of how to investigate whether economics, or politics, or both, matter in the explanation of public policy. The problem is first posed in a particular context by uncovering a political business cycle (using Canadian data for 130 years) and by taking up the challenge to make this fact meaningful by finding a transmission mechanism through actual public choices. Since the cycle is in real growth, and it is reasonable to suppose that public expenditure would be involved, the central task then is to investigate the role of (partisan and opportunistic) political factors, as opposed to economic fundamentals, in the evolution of government size. We proceed by asking whether the data allow us to distinguish between the convergence and the nonconvergence hypotheses. Convergence means that political competition forces public spending to converge in the long run to a level dictated by endowments, tastes and technology. Nonconvergence is taken to mean that political factors other than the degree of political competition prevent convergence to that long run. The general idea here, one that may be applied in any situation where the key issue is the role of economics versus politics over time, is that an overtly political factor can be said to play a distinct role in the evolution of public choices if it can be shown to lead to departures from a dynamic path defined by the evolution of economic fundamentals in a competitive political system.
TL;DR: A rich and plausible academic literature has delineated reasons to believe Brazil's democratic political institutions, including electoral rules, the political party system, federalism, and the rules of legislative procedure, are sub-optimal from the viewpoints of democratic representativeness and policymaking effectiveness as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: A rich and plausible academic literature has delineated reasons to believe Brazil's democratic political institutions--including electoral rules, the political party system, federalism, and the rules of legislative procedure--are sub-optimal from the viewpoints of democratic representativeness and policymaking effectiveness. We concur that specific peculiarities of Brazilian political institutions likely complicate the process of solving societal collective action dilemmas. Nonetheless, Brazil's economic and social track record since redemocratization in the mid 1980s has been quite good in comparative regional perspective. Perhaps, like Italy in Europe, Brazil's informal political negotiating mechanisms, or even other less obvious institutional structures, provide sufficient countervailing influences to allow "governance" to proceed relatively smoothly despite the appearance of chaos and political dysfunction.