Showing papers on "Voting behavior published in 2021"

The Dynamics of Political Communication: Media and Politics in a Digital Age

Abstract: "The Dynamics of Political Communication blends the drama, excitement, and chaos of politics with the extensive body of social science research that maps in detail the role of the communication media in our political life." —Maxwell McCombs, University of Texas at Austin "The effortlessness and accessibility with which this text walks the reader through theories, current examples and exercises will also make it a very popular textbook for undergraduate courses. I look forward to assigning it in my classes."—Dietram A. Scheufele, University of Wisconsin-Madison "Written in an easily accessible style and filled with timely and interesting examples, this textbook would be a first-rate addition to any introductory course on the topic."—Gadi Wolfsfeld, Author of Making Sense of Media and Politics: Five Principles in Political Communication "…an engaging and timely analysis of the central role of media in American politics. … The book provides multiple perspectives to stimulate critical thought and reflection."—Ann N. Crigler, University of Southern California "Perloff has offered a systematic overview of the topic that allows us to make sense of the chaotic communication environment we are enveloped within. … A must-read for anyone looking to introduce themselves to this important research area."—R. Lance Holbert, The Ohio State University What impact do news and political advertising have on us? How do candidates use media to persuade us as voters? Are we informed adequately about political issues? Do 21st-century political communications measure up to democratic ideals? The Dynamics of Political Communication: Media and Politics in a Digital Age explores these issues and guides us through current political communication theories and beliefs. Author Richard M. Perloff details the fluid landscape of political communication and offers us an engaging introduction to the field and a thorough tour of the discipline. He examines essential concepts in this arena, such as agenda-setting, agenda-building, framing, political socialization, and issues of bias that are part of campaign news. Designed to provide an understanding and appreciation of the principles involved in political communication along with methods of research and hypothesis-testing, each chapter includes materials that challenge us by encouraging reflection on controversial matters and providing links to online examples of real-life political communication. The text’s companion website provides expanded resources for students as well as materials for instructors to use in the classroom. The Dynamics of Political Communication immerses readers in contemporary events through its coverage of online campaigning, effects of negative advertising, issues of gender bias in campaign politics, and image-management strategies in the 2012 campaign. It will prepare you to survey the current political landscape with a more critical eye, and encourage a greater understanding of the challenges and occurrences presented in this constantly evolving field.

Do refugees impact voting behavior in the host country? Evidence from Syrian refugee inflows to Turkey

Abstract: We study how individual political preferences changed in response to the influx of over 3.5 million Syrian refugees to Turkey during 2012–2016. Using a difference-in-differences research design, we compare the political outcomes in geographic areas with high versus low intensities of refugee presence before and after the beginning of the Syrian Civil War. To address the endogeneity of refugees’ location choices, we adopt an instrumental variables approach that relies on (1) historical dispersion of Arabic speakers in Turkish provinces and (2) driving distances between Turkish and Syrian residential areas to predict the flows of refugees across Turkish provinces during the study period. We find strong polarization in attitudes towards refugees between the supporters and opponents of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). However, regression analyses of monthly survey data suggest that the massive inflow of refugees induced only a modest net drop in support for the AKP. Refugee inflows did not have a significant impact on election outcomes during the study period.

How “Us” and “Them” Relates to Voting Behavior—Social Structure, Social Identities, and Electoral Choice:

Abstract: The last decades have seen the emergence of a divide pitting the new left against the far right in advanced democracies. We study how this universalism-particularism divide is crystallizing into a ...

Un)happiness and voting in U.S. presidential elections.

Abstract: A rapidly growing literature has attempted to explain Donald Trump's success in the 2016 U.S. presidential election as a result of a wide variety of differences in individual characteristics, attitudes, and social processes. We propose that the economic and psychological processes previously established have in common that they generated or electorally capitalized on unhappiness in the electorate, which emerges as a powerful high-level predictor of the 2016 electoral outcome. Drawing on a large dataset covering over 2 million individual surveys, which we aggregated to the county level, we find that low levels of evaluative, experienced, and eudaemonic subjective well-being (SWB) are strongly predictive of Trump's victory, accounting for an extensive list of demographic, ideological, and socioeconomic covariates and robustness checks. County-level future life evaluation alone correlates with the Trump vote share over Republican baselines at r = -.78 in the raw data, a magnitude rarely seen in the social sciences. We show similar findings when examining the association between individual-level life satisfaction and Trump voting. Low levels of SWB also predict anti-incumbent voting at the 2012 election, both at the county and individual level. The findings suggest that SWB is a powerful high-level marker of (dis)content and that SWB should be routinely considered alongside economic explanations of electoral choice. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

From party to leader mobilization? The personalization of voter turnout:

Abstract: Partisan dealignment has been frequently advanced as a pivotal driver of the personalization of voting behavior. As voters’ long-term attachments with parties have eroded, it is argued that partisa...

Gender differences in civic and political engagement and participation among Italian young people

Abstract: A substantial amount of literature has revealed gender gaps in political participation. However, little is known about such gaps when using more comprehensive measures of civic and political participation including online participation. In the present study, we recruited a sample (n = 1792) of young people living in Italy. Controlling for age, majority/minority status, socioeconomic status, respondents’ educational attainment, and parents’ educational attainment, we found that female participants reported higher scores on online and civic participation, while male participants were more likely to report political and activist participation. The effect size for these gender differences was small. In addition, we did not find any gender differences in voting behavior in the last European parliamentary elections, national parliamentary elections, and local elections. These findings highlight the need to move toward a more comprehensive and detailed picture of gender gaps in political engagement and participation including different types of participation.

When Voters Matter: The Limits of Local Government Responsiveness:

Abstract: I use over-time variation resulting from geographic sorting to estimate the impact of local preferences on local policy. Building a new panel data set of county-level voting behavior and county-lev...

Is the Bridge Broken? Increasing Ethnic Attachments and Declining Party Influence among Latino Voters:

Abstract: In this article, we test whether perceptions of Latino linked fate influence partisan identification and voting behavior among the Latino electorate across time. Specifically, we contend that attac...

Are You Picking Up What I Am Laying Down? Ideology in Low-Information Elections:

Abstract: In November 2017, New Orleans elected the first woman, and first Black woman, mayor in the city’s history. Voters were unable to rely on gender, race, or partisanship to differentiate between the c...

Does class-based campaigning work? how working class appeals attract and polarize voters

Abstract: Recent elections have featured various politicians directly appealing to the working class, yet we know little about how citizens react to class appeals from candidates. We investigate this question using survey experiments conducted in the United States and Denmark. We show that symbolic class rhetoric substantially influences candidate evaluations and ultimately polarizes these evaluations across class lines. We also unpack how class appeals work and find that while they increase perceptions of representation among working class voters, they have a more limited effect on perceptions of candidates’ ideological position. Our results help explain how class affects voter decision-making and contribute to broader discussions about the role of political elites in activating social cleavages.

Dangerous Disconnect: Voter Backlash, Elite Misperception, and the Costs of Violence as an Electoral Tactic

Abstract: Why do politicians use violence as an electoral tactic, and how does it affect voting behavior? Theories of election-related violence focus on the electoral benefits such violence is said to provide, relying on the assumption that when parties and candidates employ violence, they do so based on an accurate assessment of its relative costs and benefits. Far less attention has been paid to the costs of violence as an electoral tactic, including the potential for voter backlash against it. This study provides evidence that voter backlash against violence is more significant than both scholars and politicians tend to assume. Moreover, that backlash can diminish the electoral advantages that violence provides. Combining survey experiments with Kenyan voters and observational data on violence and election outcomes, I find compelling evidence for broad-based voter backlash against violence that undermines its effectiveness as an electoral tactic. At the same time, data from parallel survey experiments and qualitative interviews with Kenyan politicians demonstrate that they underestimate the extent to which violence diminishes their support among voters. The results highlight the often underappreciated costs of violence as an electoral tactic and the role that elite misperceptions can play in its persistence.

Populism between voting and non-electoral participation

Abstract: The article focuses on a neglected aspect of populist mobilisation, i.e. non-electoral participation (NEP), and elaborates on the extent to which populist party voters engage politically outside th...

A new divide? Assessing the transnational-nationalist dimension among political parties and the public across the EU:

Abstract: European politics is increasingly being contested along two dimensions: the economic left-right dimension and a relatively new dimension focused on European integration and immigration We test thi

Populist attitudes and conspiratorial thinking

Abstract: What happens to the anti-establishment sentiments of pro-incumbent voters for a populist force that is in government and thus controls the political system? This article examines this question util...

Fairness views and political preferences: evidence from a large and heterogeneous sample

Abstract: We elicit distributional fairness ideals of impartial spectators using an incentivized experiment in a large and heterogeneous sample of the German population. We document several empirical facts: (i) egalitarianism is more popular than efficiency- and maxi-min ideals; (ii) females are more egalitarian than men; (iii) men are relatively more efficiency minded; (iv) left-leaning voters are more likely to be egalitarians, whereas right-leaning voters are more likely to be efficiency-minded; and (v) young and high-educated participants hold different fairness ideals than the rest of the population. Moreover, we show that fairness ideals predict preferences for redistribution and intervention by the government, as well as actual charitable giving, even after controlling for a range of covariates. This paper thus contributes to our understanding of the underpinnings of voting behavior and ideological preferences and to the literature that links laboratory measures and field behavior.

No Country for Asylum Seekers? How Short-Term Exposure to Refugees Influences Attitudes and Voting Behavior in Hungary

Abstract: How does exposure to refugees influence political behavior? We present evidence from Hungary, a country with widespread anti-immigration attitudes, that short term exposure during the 2015 refugee crisis predicts anti-refugee voting and sentiment We code exposure to refugees at the settlement level using reports from state media, an independent online news site, and an online social media aggregator Settlements through which refugees traveled showed significantly higher anti-refugee voting in a national referendum in 2016 The effect decreases sharply with distance Using a difference-in-differences model, we find that the far-right opposition gained, while the governing right-wing party lost votes in these settlements in subsequent parliamentary elections This suggests incumbents are punished by voters skeptical of immigration regardless of their policy position Survey data supports this finding of a competition among right-wing parties, as individuals in exposed settlements are more fearful of immigrants and support restrictive policies only if they identify as right-wing

Gender Stereotypes, Political Leadership, and Voting Behavior in Tunisia

Abstract: Although female political representation in the Arab world has nearly doubled in the last decade, little is known about how voters in the region view female politicians and their political platforms, particularly in a new democracy like Tunisia. We conduct original conjoint and vignette survey experiments to examine the effects of candidate gender and gender- and leadership-congruent political platforms on voter support. Building on role congruity theory, we find evidence of bias against female candidates among voters, particularly among respondents who hold patriarchal gender norms. Additionally, we find that all respondents are more likely to prefer candidates who emphasize security issues rather than women’s rights. Overall, our study suggests that female candidates who emphasize issues congruent with stereotypes of political leadership, such as security, can increase voter support, though respondents also reward male candidates who appeal to leadership congruent issues.

Brahmin Left versus Merchant Right? Education, class, multiparty competition, and redistribution in Western Europe

Abstract: In this article, we revisit the main claims of Part Four of Thomas Piketty's Capital and Ideology and especially the changing support coalitions for parties of the left. Piketty's core argument in this part of the book is that the left now represents the highly educated and that, as a result, the redistributive preferences of the working class do not find representation in today's party systems. We address these claims building on existing political science research that has investigated the transformation of politics in advanced capitalist societies. We argue, first, that the educational divide cannot be adequately analyzed by looking at a left and a right bloc, but crucially needs to pay attention to the rise of green/left-libertarian and radical right parties. Second, we contend that the new middle classes that support parties of the left are largely in favor of economic redistribution. Analyzing data from the European Social Survey in 11 West European countries from 2002 to 2018, we show that the effect of education on voting left or right is indeed largely driven by green/left-libertarian and radical right parties, while there is little empirical evidence that social democratic parties represent the educational elite. We also find that redistributive preferences remain at the heart of voting behavior and that, especially for educated voters, these preferences determine whether someone votes for a party of the left rather than the right.

Electoral participation, political disaffection, and the rise of the populist radical right:

Abstract: Does the populist radical right benefit from increased electoral mobilization? Integrating theories of political grievances with accounts of party competition in Western Europe, we contend that the...

The Dynamic Electoral Returns of a Large Anti-Poverty Program

Abstract: Short-term re-election strategies are widely used by governments around the world. This is problematic if governments can maximize their re-election chances by prioritizing short-term spending befo...

Get Information or Get in Formation: The Effects of High-Information Environments on Legislative Elections

Abstract: How does the changing information environment affect the degree to which voters make independent decisions for different offices on their ballots? Leveraging the gradual roll-out of broadband internet across the United States and across congressional districts, this study uses within-district variation over four election cycles to examine the effects of internet access on voting behavior in US legislative elections. The results show that the expansion of broadband resulted in less split-ticket voting and a lower incumbency advantage because voters exposed to increased high-speed internet voted in a more partisan fashion. Consistent with work demonstrating the effect of the internet on local news consumption, the results suggest that the change in the information environment resulting from enhanced internet access led voters to prioritize national considerations over local considerations. This has important consequences for not only how voters act, but the resulting incentives that elected officials confront.

The urban–rural divide in radical right populist support: the role of resident’s characteristics, urbanization trends and public service supply

Abstract: In a number of recent elections in Western Europe, support for far-right populist parties has been significantly higher in non-urban areas than in urban areas. This paper answers the following questions; (1) Can the urban–rural divide in voting behavior be explained by the fact that urban and non-urban populations differ in terms of education, income and other individual characteristics of voters, or by variations in immigration? (2) Can variations in public service supply explain parts of the urban–rural divide in far-right populist support? and (3) How does population growth and public services relate to voting behavior when examining urban and rural municipalities separately? The analyses combine survey data on individual characteristics and register data aggregated on municipalities. The results in this paper suggest that voter characteristics and immigration explain a substantial part of the urban–rural divide. However, the propensity to vote for a far-right populist party is still higher in regions with lower population growth even when controlling for individual characteristics and immigration. When considering public service supply, the urban–rural divide is further weakened. The propensity to vote for a far-right party decreases with higher public service supply and higher share of immigrants. The findings in this paper thereby support the hypothesis that individuals in shrinking areas with lower access to public services are likely to respond to the deterioration of their location by casting a vote on the far-right (i.e., protest voting).

The Temporal Focus of Campaign Communication

Abstract: Experiences from the past and present influence decision-making. Voting behavior at elections also involves retrospective and prospective considerations. Yet, we do not know the degree to which par...

Multiple Ideal Points: Revealed Preferences in Different Domains

Abstract: We extend classical ideal point estimation to allow voters to have different preferences when voting in different domains—for example, when voting on agricultural policy than when voting on defense policy Our scaling procedure results in estimated ideal points on a common scale As a result, we are able to directly compare a member’s revealed preferences across different domains of voting (different sets of motions) to assess if, for example, a member votes more conservatively on agriculture motions than on defense In doing so, we are able to assess the extent to which voting behavior of an individual voter is consistent with a uni-dimensional spatial model—if a member has the same preferences in all domains The key novelty is to estimate rather than assume the identity of “stayers”—voters whose revealed preference is constant across votes Our approach offers methodology for investigating the relationship between the basic space and issue space in legislative voting (Poole 2007) There are several methodological advantages to our approach First, our model allows for testing sharp hypotheses Second, the methodology developed can be understood as a kind of partial-pooling model for item response theory scaling, resulting in less uncertainty of estimates Related, our estimation method provides a principled and unified approach to the issue of “granularity” (ie, the level of aggregation) in the analysis of roll-call data (Crespin and Rohde 2010; Roberts et al 2016) We illustrate the model by estimating US House of Representatives members’ revealed preferences in different policy domains, and identify several other potential applications of the model including: studying the relationship between committee and floor voting behavior; and investigating constituency influence and representation

Political extremism and distrust: Does radical political orientation predict political distrust and negative attitudes towards European integration?

Abstract: Institutional and political distrust are often associated with the improved electoral performance of extremist parties. This study analyses to what extent political distrust and Euroscepticism are associated with extreme left and right ideological positions. We specifically examine voters in the Netherlands – a country with wide array of political parties spanning a broad ideological spectrum. The study utilises probability samples from the Dutch National Election Survey and the European Election Studies, as well as opt-in samples collected through Vote Advice Applications (VAAs), amounting to a total of 20,548 analysed respondents. By employing hierarchical regression analyses, we find that across multiple elections at the national and European level, both radical left and radical right respondents are more prone to be politically distrustful and Eurosceptic, than respondents who profess a centrist political ideology. In addition, our analyses suggest that distrust and Euroscepticism can be explained by respondents’ party preference.