Probability Distributions.- Linear Models for Regression.- Linear Models for Classification.- Neural Networks.- Kernel Methods.- Sparse Kernel Machines.- Graphical Models.- Mixture Models and EM.- Approximate Inference.- Sampling Methods.- Continuous Latent Variables.- Sequential Data.- Combining Models.

Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning

For the last 25 years species delimitation in prokaryotes (Archaea and Bacteria) was to a large extent based on DNA-DNA hybridization (DDH), a tedious lab procedure designed in the early 1970s that served its purpose astonishingly well in the absence of deciphered genome sequences. With the rapid progress in genome sequencing time has come to directly use the now available and easy to generate genome sequences for delimitation of species. GBDP (Genome Blast Distance Phylogeny) infers genome-to-genome distances between pairs of entirely or partially sequenced genomes, a digital, highly reliable estimator for the relatedness of genomes. Its application as an in-silico replacement for DDH was recently introduced. The main challenge in the implementation of such an application is to produce digital DDH values that must mimic the wet-lab DDH values as close as possible to ensure consistency in the Prokaryotic species concept. Correlation and regression analyses were used to determine the best-performing methods and the most influential parameters. GBDP was further enriched with a set of new features such as confidence intervals for intergenomic distances obtained via resampling or via the statistical models for DDH prediction and an additional family of distance functions. As in previous analyses, GBDP obtained the highest agreement with wet-lab DDH among all tested methods, but improved models led to a further increase in the accuracy of DDH prediction. Confidence intervals yielded stable results when inferred from the statistical models, whereas those obtained via resampling showed marked differences between the underlying distance functions. Despite the high accuracy of GBDP-based DDH prediction, inferences from limited empirical data are always associated with a certain degree of uncertainty. It is thus crucial to enrich in-silico DDH replacements with confidence-interval estimation, enabling the user to statistically evaluate the outcomes. Such methodological advancements, easily accessible through the web service at http://ggdc.dsmz.de
 , are crucial steps towards a consistent and truly genome sequence-based classification of microorganisms.

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Genome sequence-based species delimitation with confidence intervals and improved distance functions

The standard bootstrap (SBS), despite being computationally intensive, is widely used in maximum likelihood phylogenetic analyses. We recently proposed the ultrafast bootstrap approximation (UFBoot) to reduce computing time while achieving more unbiased branch supports than SBS under mild model violations. UFBoot has been steadily adopted as an efficient alternative to SBS and other bootstrap approaches. Here, we present UFBoot2, which substantially accelerates UFBoot and reduces the risk of overestimating branch supports due to polytomies or severe model violations. Additionally, UFBoot2 provides suitable bootstrap resampling strategies for phylogenomic data. UFBoot2 is 778 times (median) faster than SBS and 8.4 times (median) faster than RAxML rapid bootstrap on tested data sets. UFBoot2 is implemented in the IQ-TREE software package version 1.6 and freely available at http://www.iqtree.org.

UFBoot2: Improving the Ultrafast Bootstrap Approximation.

Summary. In the paper I give a brief review of the basic idea and some history and then discuss some developments since the original paper on regression shrinkage and selection via the lasso.

/pdf/regression-shrinkage-and-selection-via-the-lasso-a-4sbzd06ar6.pdf

Regression shrinkage and selection via the lasso: a retrospective

Nonparametric bootstrap has been a widely used tool in phylogenetic analysis to assess the clade support of phylogenetic trees. However, with the rapidly growing amount of data, this task remains a computational bottleneck. Recently, approximation methods such as the RAxML rapid bootstrap (RBS) and the Shimodaira-Hasegawa-like approximate likelihood ratio test have been introduced to speed up the bootstrap. Here, we suggest an ultrafast bootstrap approximation approach (UFBoot) to compute the support of phylogenetic groups in maximum likelihood (ML) based trees. To achieve this, we combine the resampling estimated log-likelihood method with a simple but effective collection scheme of candidate trees. We also propose a stopping rule that assesses the convergence of branch support values to automatically determine when to stop collecting candidate trees. UFBoot achieves a median speed up of 3.1 (range: 0.66-33.3) to 10.2 (range: 1.32-41.4) compared with RAxML RBS for real DNA and amino acid alignments, respectively. Moreover, our extensive simulations show that UFBoot is robust against moderate model violations and the support values obtained appear to be relatively unbiased compared with the conservative standard bootstrap. This provides a more direct interpretation of the bootstrap support. We offer an efficient and easy-to-use software (available at http://www.cibiv.at/software/iqtree) to perform the UFBoot analysis with ML tree inference.

/pdf/ultrafast-approximation-for-phylogenetic-bootstrap-2yt6c7fswx.pdf

David Hinkley

Papers

Bootstrap Methods: Another Look at the Jackknife