Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth's climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community.

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The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment

Anthropogenic pressures on the Earth System have reached a scale where abrupt global environmental change can no longer be excluded. We propose a new approach to global sustainability in which we define planetary boundaries within which we expect that humanity can operate safely. Transgressing one or more planetary boundaries may be deleterious or even catastrophic due to the risk of crossing thresholds that will trigger non-linear, abrupt environmental change within continental- to planetary-scale systems. We have identified nine planetary boundaries and, drawing upon current scientific understanding, we propose quantifications for seven of them. These seven are climate change (CO2 concentration in the atmosphere <350 ppm and/or a maximum change of +1 W m-2 in radiative forcing); ocean acidification (mean surface seawater saturation state with respect to aragonite ≥ 80% of pre-industrial levels); stratospheric ozone (<5% reduction in O3 concentration from pre-industrial level of 290 Dobson Units); biogeochemical nitrogen (N) cycle (limit industrial and agricultural fixation of N2 to 35 Tg N yr-1) and phosphorus (P) cycle (annual P inflow to oceans not to exceed 10 times the natural background weathering of P); global freshwater use (<4000 km3 yr-1 of consumptive use of runoff resources); land system change (<15% of the ice-free land surface under cropland); and the rate at which biological diversity is lost (annual rate of <10 extinctions per million species). The two additional planetary boundaries for which we have not yet been able to determine a boundary level are chemical pollution and atmospheric aerosol loading. We estimate that humanity has already transgressed three planetary boundaries: for climate change, rate of biodiversity loss, and changes to the global nitrogen cycle. Planetary boundaries are interdependent, because transgressing one may both shift the position of other boundaries or cause them to be transgressed. The social impacts of transgressing boundaries will be a function of the social-ecological resilience of the affected societies. Our proposed boundaries are rough, first estimates only, surrounded by large uncertainties and knowledge gaps. Filling these gaps will require major advancements in Earth System and resilience science. The proposed concept of "planetary boundaries" lays the groundwork for shifting our approach to governance and management, away from the essentially sectoral analyses of limits to growth aimed at minimizing negative externalities, toward the estimation of the safe space for human development. Planetary boundaries define, as it were, the boundaries of the "planetary playing field" for humanity if we want to be sure of avoiding major human-induced environmental change on a global scale.

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Planetary boundaries: Exploring the safe operating space for humanity

The article is intended as a contribution to the ongoing conceptual development of corporate sustainability. At the business level sustainability is often equated with eco-efficiency. However, such a reduction misses several important criteria that firms have to satisfy if they want to become truly sustainable.

This article discusses how the concept of sustainable development has evolved over the past three decades and particularly how it can be applied to the business level. It then goes on to describe the three types of capital relevant within the concept of corporate sustainability: economic, natural and social capital.

From this basis we shall then develop the six criteria managers aiming for corporate sustainability will have to satisfy: eco-efficiency, socio-efficiency, eco-effectiveness, socio-effectiveness, sufficiency and ecological equity. The article ends with a brief outlook towards future research. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. and ERP Environment

Beyond the business case for corporate sustainability

This book demonstrates that people's basic values and beliefs are changing, in ways that affect their political, sexual, economic, and religious behaviour. These changes are roughly predictable: to a large extent, they can be interpreted on the basis of a revised version of modernisation theory presented here. Drawing on a massive body of evidence from societies containing 85 percent of the world's population, the authors demonstrate that modernisation is a process of human development, in which economic development gives rise to cultural changes that make individual autonomy, gender equality, and democracy increasingly likely. The authors present a model of social change that predicts how the value systems play a crucial role in the emergence and flourishing of democratic institutions - and that modernisation brings coherent cultural changes that are conducive to democratisation.

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Modernization, Cultural Change, and Democracy: The Human Development Sequence

https://steadystate.org/wp-content/uploads/Stern_KuznetsCurve.pdf

The Rise and Fall of the Environmental Kuznets Curve

Every person approaches problems with the help of models. A model is simply an ordered set of assumptions about a complex system. Our world model was built specifically to investigate five major trends of global concern—accelerating industrialization, rapid population growth, widespread malnutrition, depletion of nonrenewable resources, and a deteriorating environment. It is possible to alter the growth trends and to establish a condition of ecological and economic stability that is sustainable far into the future. The state of global equilibrium could be designed so that the basic material needs of each person on earth are satisfied and each person has an equal opportunity to realize his individual human potential. Although the history of human effort contains numerous incidents of mankind's failure to live within physical limits, it is success in overcoming limits that forms the cultural tradition of many dominant people in today's world.

The Limits to Growth

The Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mankind

PrefaceMost people acknowledge that the earth is finite. Yet the belief that continuednmaterial growth is possible and desirable remains an important influence on thenmajority of public and private decisions. Policy makers generally assume that growthnwill provide them tomorrow with the resources required to deal with todayrs problems.nPromises that the poor will receive a share of the additional goods and servicesncreated by growth are widely substituted for any real effort to change social values ornredistribute current income. Deficit spending, high interest rates, and the squanderingnof materials are all prevalent, and all are justified in part by the claim that morenincome, greater productivity, and increased resource reserves will inevitably be availablenin the future.Recently, however, concern about the consequences of population growth, increasednenvironmental pollution, and the depletion of fossil fuels has cast doubt uponnthe belief that continuous growth is either possible or a panacea. Yet it is difficult fornindividuals or institutions to recognize or respond to limits to growth, for the causesnand consequences of increased production and population extend over long timenperiods, are numerous, and lie interlinked within a system too complex to be encompassedneasily by the human mind. Before current social objectives and institutionalnforms can be intelligently reevaluated, new theoretical bases are required to assist innunderstanding the dynamics of growth in a finite world.In July 1970 the executive committee of The Club of Rome attended a seminarnpresented by members of the System Dynamics Group at the Massachusetts Institutenof Technology. The committee had come to determine whether the system analysisntechniques developed at M.I.T. by Professor Jay W. Forrester and his associatesncould provide new perspectives on the interlocking complex of costs and benefitsninherent in continued physical growth on a finite planet. Professor Forrester broughtnto The Club of Rome meeting a preliminary computer simulation model, callednWorld2, that specified important relationships among population, economic output,nand environmental constraints. At the meeting, plans were developed for a researchnprogram to test and extend Forresterrs initial theories. I directed the group of scientists and students involved in that effort, and worked with my associates to preparenthe material for three reports on our research. n n

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William W. Behrens

Papers

The Limits to Growth

The Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mankind

Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World

A response to Sussex

“Perspectives, Problems, and Models” from The Limits to Growth (1972)