Recent tests for the convergence hypothesis derive from regressing average growth rates on initial levels: a negative initial coefficient is interpreted as convergence. These tests turn out to be plagued by Galton's classical fallacy of regression towards the mean. Using a dynamic version of Galton's fallacy, I establish that coefficients of arbitrary signs in such regressions are consistent with an unchanging cross-section distribution of incomes. Alternative, more direct empirics used here show a tendency for divergence, rather than convergence, of cross-country incomes.

Galton's Fallacy and Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis (Now published in Scandinavian Journal of Economics 95 (4), 1993, pp.427-443.)

This study investigated the impact of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak on prices of maize, sorghum, imported rice and local rice in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We estimated dynamic panel data models with controls for macroeconomic setting using general method of moments estimation. The study found that the COVID-19 outbreak led to increases in food prices of the sampled countries. Restrictions on movements or lockdowns in the wake of COVID-19 was associated with an increase in the price of maize only. We also found that exchange rate, inflation and crude oil prices exerted a detrimental effect on food prices. We recommend that governments of SSA countries invest in infrastructure that improves efficiencies in the food supply chain during pandemics. Providing adequate support to industries in the value chain will also improve food availability and food price stability post-COVID-19.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/1467-8268.12525

COVID-19 and food prices in sub-Saharan Africa.

The purpose of this paper is sixfold: first, to know the ability of area carrying capacity to the development of downstream oil palm industry; second, to know the potential for the development of downstream oil palm industry in efforts to improve the community through employment and business opportunities in the regions; third, to find eco-friendly institutional arrangement strategies of oil palm farming in order to spur economic growth and development; fourth, to formulate strategies for potential environmental impact as a result of institutional arrangement and development of downstream oil palm industry, both in regional and national scope; fifth, to predict the economic multiplier effect as impact of institutional arrangement and development of oil-palm-based downstream industry; and sixth, to include production centers and development areas of oil-palm-based downstream industry in potential areas.,Research location was in potential areas of oil palm plantation development, either in the form of plasma through state-owned enterprises (BUMN) and private-owned enterprises (BUMS), or in the form of self-supporting by community. The research locations were divided into two parts, namely the land area and the coastal area. The land area of Riau consisted of Kampar, Rokan Hulu and Kuantan Singingi Regency, while the coastal area of Riau consisted of Pelalawan, Siak, Bengkalis, Indragiri Hilir, Indragiri Hulu and Rokan Hilir Regency. Both research areas had different productivity which was caused by differences in soil fertility. The required data were primary and secondary data.,Plantation activities have increased the mobility of goods in the villages, causing plantation activities to also open business and employment opportunities for people who are able to accept these opportunities. Since post-1998 crisis, the growth of oil palm plantation area in Riau increased sharply, namely in 1998, the area of oil palm plantations was 901,276 ha, in 2012, 1,119,798 ha and increased to 2,103,175 ha at the end of 2017. Through economic activities that produce goods and services required during the plantation process and the development, downstream industries will have backward linkages. The development of oil palm plantations in Riau has had an impact on economic activities in rural areas. The result of the research in the field is that the average income of farmers in the plantation subsector (especially oil palm) is Rp4,576,696 per month or $5,781.09 per year. The impact on investment in the estate subsector has been felt by rural communities. This condition also affects the purchasing power of the people, resulting in the increase of mobility of goods and people. During the period 2009–2016, rural communities enjoyed a high level of prosperity. During this period, the price of fresh fruit bunch at the farm level was quite profitable. On the other hand, the production of the plantation area also increased compared to the previous period. The impact of rising prices and increasing production of farmers is that the farmers’ welfare index in the countryside had a positive value of 0.43. This index showed the increase of farmers’ welfare from the previous period by 43 percent.,There are few previous studies which have comprehensively and specifically reviewed the regional economic empowerment through institutional arrangement and development of oil-palm-based downstream industry. The development of oil palm plantations aims to eliminate poverty and underdevelopment, especially in rural areas. In addition, it also pays attention to equity. In broad sense, agricultural development which is based on plantations aims to improve the welfare of the community so that there is a change in the pattern of life of the surrounding community. On the other hand, the success of plantation development that is based on oil palm agribusiness is expected to reduce income inequality between community groups and between regions.

Regional economic empowerment through oil palm economic institutional development

The study analyzed the determinants of smallholder vegetable farmerâ€™s access and demand to credit Primary data were collected from hundred randomly selected farmers with the aid of structured questionnaires using multi-stage sampling procedures One common approach used to modeling this situation is the tobit model However, the decision taken by farmers to demand credit is preceded by the decision to have â€œaccess to creditâ€  Therefore, a double-hurdle model was specified and used to determine factors influencing credit access and demand Econometric results show that age has a positive and significant value on the quantity equation, but negative and significant on the access equation The study concluded that the spread of lending agencies, membership to farmersâ€™ association, extension service, large farm size increase both access to and demand for credit In addition, small and female farmers should be encouraged to form associations to ensure appropriate information sharing and advantage of non-rationing credit

https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/179942/1/Djoumessi%20et%20al.credit-paper.pdf

Determinants of Smallholder Vegetable Farmers Credit Access and Demand in Southwest region, Cameroon

Data from the Groningen Growth and Development Center's Africa Sector Database and the Demographic and Health Surveys reveals that much of Africa's recent growth and poverty reduction has been associated with a substantive decline in the share of the labor force engaged in agriculture This decline is most pronounced for rural females over the age of 25 who have a primary education; it has been accompanied by a systematic increase in the productivity of the labor force, as it has moved from low productivity agriculture to higher productivity services and manufacturing Although the employment share in manufacturing is not expanding rapidly, in most of the low-income African countries the employment share in manufacturing has not peaked and is still expanding, albeit from very low levels More work is needed to understand the implications of these shifts in employment shares for future growth and development in Africa south of the Sahara

The changing structure of Africa's economies

This paper analyzes the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic on employment in Cameroon. Using data collected from a rapid survey led by the National Institute of Statistics, on a sample of 1,310 respondents from April to May 2020. These data show that a large proportion of workers suffered a wage cut (60.93%) and temporary job suspension (31.6%), and the smallest proportion suffered job loss (7.47%). The results of the logistic regression show that lower frequency of outgoings to work, difficulties in accessing transport services and the loss of customer confidence have a strong negative impact on both wage cuts and temporary suspensions of work. The closure (total or partial) of activities has increasingly enhanced job loss. Further, the log of odds show that workers in private firms are more affected than their peers in public firms, and the middle-aged are the most affected group. So, it is recommended to revamp the old methods of activity into digital innovation that enables less physical touch and find an appropriate way to support those who have lost their jobs during this Covid-19 pandemic, particularly in the private sector.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/1467-8268.12508

The adverse impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the labor market in Cameroon.

Purpose This study examines the efficiency of vegetable farmers within the tree-crop based rainforest agro-ecological zone in Southwest region of Cameroon Design/methodology/approach The non-parametric data envelopment analysis method was used to evaluate technical and scale efficiencies while Tobit model was used to identify factors affecting efficiency of vegetable production Findings An econometric analyses results indicates that family size, education and extension service have significant impact on both technical and scale efficiencies, whereas credit service has significant impact on scale efficiency. Practical implications Future agricultural policies could include measures to improve the capacity of farmers to efficiently use existing resources Originality/value In Cameroun only a few studies have been conducted on technical efficiency. These encompass mainly cash and food crops. To the best of our knowledge, no single study has measured technical efficiency of vegetable farmers in forest based fa...

Socio-economic and institutional factors underlying efficiency of smallholder vegetable farms in Southwest region of Cameroon

Moving off Agrarian Societies: Agricultural Productivity to Facilitate Economic Transformations and Non‐agricultural Employment Growth in Sub‐Saharan Africa

Yannick Fosso Djoumessi

Papers

Determinants of Smallholder Vegetable Farmers Credit Access and Demand in Southwest region, Cameroon

The adverse impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the labor market in Cameroon.

Socio-economic and institutional factors underlying efficiency of smallholder vegetable farms in Southwest region of Cameroon

Moving off Agrarian Societies: Agricultural Productivity to Facilitate Economic Transformations and Non‐agricultural Employment Growth in Sub‐Saharan Africa

The impact of malnutrition on infant mortality and life expectancy in Africa.