Olives are one of the largest crops in the Mediterranean region, especially in Andalusia, in southern Spain. A thermal model has been developed for forecasting the start of the olive tree pollen season at five localities in Andalusia: Cordoba, Priego, Jaen, Granada and Malaga using airborne pollen and meteorological data from 1982 to 2001. Threshold temperatures varied between 5°C and 12.5°C depending on bio-geographical characteristics. The external validity of the results was tested using the data for the year 2002 as an independent variable and it confirmed the model’s accuracy with only a few days difference from predicted values. All the localities had increasingly earlier start dates during the study period. This could confirm that olive flower phenology can be considered as a sensitive indicator of the effects of climate fluctuations in the Mediterranean area. The theoretical impact of the predicted climatic warming on the olive’s flowering phenology at the end of the century is also proposed by applying Regional Climate Model data. A general advance, from 1 to 3 weeks could be expected, although this advance will be more pronounced in mid-altitude inland areas.

https://www.uco.es/rea/publicaciones/andalucia/cordoba/Heat_requirement.pdf

Heat requirement for the onset of the Olea europaea L. pollen season in several sites in Andalusia and the effect of the expected future climate change

The transfer of pollen from floral anther to recipient stigma is the critical reproductive event among higher plants--this is the botanical view of pollen. Proteins and glycoproteins from pollen can function as allergens, environmental molecules interacting with the human immune system to elicit an allergic response in susceptible individuals--this is how allergists and immunologists see pollen grains. Between 10 and 25% of the population now have symptoms of hay fever or allergic asthma and the incidence has more than doubled in the past three decades while the reason(s) for this increment are only hypothetical, but there is a multitude of them. Despite our natural focus on this impact of pollen on human health, pollen have to be considered in a larger context. First of all, to evaluate the bioavailability of allergens from pollen, we have to understand their function and their influence factors. Furthermore, pollen grains are not only releasing proteins eliciting specific immune responses, but they also liberate bioactive lipid mediators and this much more rapidly. And last but not least, recent observations indicate, that pollen do not only induce allergy and thus have a much broader impact on human health. This review is an attempt to favour this holistic view of pollen and their impact on human health.

Impact of pollen on human health: More than allergen carriers?

The main characteristics of the Quercus pollination season were studied in 14 different localities of the Iberian Peninsula from 1992-2004. Results show that Quercus flowering season has tended to start earlier in recent years, probably due to the increased temperatures in the pre-flowering period, detected at study sites over the second half of the 20th century. A Growing Degree Days forecasting model was used, together with future meteorological data forecast using the Regional Climate Model developed by the Hadley Meteorological Centre, in order to determine the expected advance in the start of Quercus pollination in future years. At each study site, airborne pollen curves presented a similar pattern in all study years, with different peaks over the season attributable in many cases to the presence of several species. High pollen concentrations were recorded, particularly at Mediterranean sites. This study also proposes forecasting models to predict both daily pollen values and annual pollen emission. All models were externally validated using data for 2001 and 2004, with acceptable results. Finally, the impact of the highly-likely climate change on Iberian Quercus pollen concentration values was studied by applying RCM meteorological data for different future years, 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2099. Results indicate that under a doubled CO2 scenario at the end of the 21st century Quercus pollination season could start on average one month earlier and airborne pollen concentrations will increase by 50% with respect to current levels, with higher values in Mediterranean inland areas.

http://www.uco.es/rea/publicaciones/andalucia/cordoba/Quercus_AAEM_def.pdf

Quercus pollen season dynamics in the Iberian peninsula: response to meteorological parameters and possible consequences of climate change.

Climate change is expected to increase temperatures and lower rainfall in Mediterranean regions; however, there is a great degree of uncertainty as to the amount of change. This limits the prediction capacity of models to quantify impacts on water resources, vegetation productivity and erosion. This work circumvents this problem by analysing the sensitivity of these variables to varying degrees of temperature change (increased by up to 6·4 °C), rainfall (reduced by up to 40%) and atmospheric CO2 concentrations (increased by up to 100%). The SWAT watershed model was applied to 18 large watersheds in two contrasting regions of Portugal, one humid and one semi-arid; incremental changes to climate variables were simulated using a stochastic weather generator. The main results indicate that water runoff, particularly subsurface runoff, is highly sensitive to these climate change trends (down by 80%). The biomass growth of most species showed a declining trend (wheat down by 40%), due to the negative impacts of increasing temperatures, dampened by higher CO2 concentrations. Mediterranean species, however, showed a positive response to milder degrees of climate change. Changes to erosion depended on the interactions between the decline in surface runoff (driving erosion rates downward) and biomass growth (driving erosion rates upward). For the milder rainfall changes, soil erosion showed a significant increasing trend in wheat fields (up to 150% in the humid watersheds), well above the recovery capacity of the soil. Overall, the results indicate a shift of the humid watersheds to acquire semi-arid characteristics, such as more irregular river flows and increasingly marginal conditions for agricultural production. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Vulnerability of water resources, vegetation productivity and soil erosion to climate change in Mediterranean watersheds

Phenological trends in southern Spain: A response to climate change

http://www.uco.es/raa/publicaciones/andalucia/cordoba/AFM_article_def.pdf

A.M. Gutierrez

Papers

Modelling start of oak pollen season in different climatic zones in Spain