http://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/181/4102/803.full.pdf

Earthquake Prediction: A Physical Basis

SUMMARY Earthquake prediction research has been conducted for over 100 years with no obvious successes. Claims of breakthroughs have failed to withstand scrutiny. Extensive searches have failed to find reliable precursors. Theoretical work suggests that faulting is a non-linear process which is highly sensitive to unmeasurably fine details of the state of the Earth in a large volume, not just in the immediate vicinity of the hypocentre. Any small earthquake thus has some probability of cascading into a large event. Reliable issuing of alarms of imminent large earthquakes appears to be effectively impossible. Key word: Earthquake prediction.

Earthquake prediction: a critical review

Despite over 2 decades of international and national monitoring of electrical signals with the hope of detecting precursors to earthquakes, the scientific community is no closer to understanding why precursors are observed only in some cases. Laboratory measurements have demonstrated conclusively that self potentials develop owing to fluid flow and that both resistivity and magnetization change when rocks are stressed. However, field experiments have had much less success. Many purported observations of low-frequency electrical precursors are much larger than expectations based on laboratory results. In some cases, no precursors occurred prior to earthquakes, or precursory signals were reported with no corresponding coseismic signals. Nonetheless, the field experiments are in approximate agreement with laboratory measurements. Maximum resistivity changes of a few percent have been observed prior to some earthquakes in China, but the mechanism causing those changes is still unknown. Anomalous electric and magnetic fields associated with fluid flow prior to earthquakes may have been observed. Finally, piezomagnetic signals associated with stress release in earthquakes have been documented in measurements of magnetic fields.

Electromagnetic precursors to earthquakes in the Ulf band: A review of observations and mechanisms

Subsurface radon emanation monitored in shallow dry holes along an active segment of the San Andreas fault in central California shows spatially coherent large temporal variations that seem to be correlated with local seismicity.

Radon emanation on San Andreas Fault

Preferential loss of uranium-234 relative to uranium-238 from rocks into solutions has long been attributed to recoiling alpha-emitting nuclei. Direct evidence has been obtained for two mechanisms, first, recoil ejection from grains, and now release by natural etching of alpha-recoil tracks. The observations have implications for radon emanation and for the storage of alpha-emitting radioactive waste.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/207/4434/979.full.pdf

A.N. Semenov

Papers

The processes preceding strong earthquakes in some regions of middle Asia