A Research Project Submitted In partial Fulfilment for the award of the Degree of Master of Arts in Economics, of the University of Nairobi

Determinants of Agricultural Productivity in Kenya

Abstract Rain-fed food crop production is very sensitive to climate variability. The majority of Ethiopian population is reliant on rain-fed seasonal agriculture, which is the backbone of the country’s economy. The objective of the study was to investigate the impact of rainfall and temperature changes on maize and sorghum yields. The data were analyzed using the Mann–Kendall trend test, Sen’s slope, correlation, and regression models. The study’s findings demonstrated that rainfall and temperature have different effects on maize and sorghum yields. The Mann-Kendall trend test has detected the presence of a significant increasing trend for both maize and sorghum yields. Though there was an upward trend, the result also suggests that maize and sorghum yields have been fluctuating more. There was a variation of 90% and 88% in maize and sorghum yield, respectively. The R-squared statistics indicated the variability of 25.21%, 1.12%, and 20.39% in maize yield was explained by its growing period rainfall, minimum, and maximum temperature respectively. Growing period rainfall and minimum temperature were positively correlated with maize and sorghum yield output, while the maximum temperature was negatively correlated. A significant association has been detected between sorghum yield and its growing period rainfall and maximum temperature. The regression model revealed that rainfall, minimum, and maximum temperatures explained 46.81%, 5.08%, and 30.18% of the variation in sorghum production, respectively. Both crops showed unpredictability as a result of rainfall and temperature changes, emphasizing the necessity for irrigated agriculture, agricultural diversification, and livelihood diversification to respond to climate variability.

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/23311932.2022.2057656?needAccess=true

Impact of climate variability on rain-fed maize and sorghum yield among smallholder farmers

Climate change and its impacts on Vietnam agriculture: A macroeconomic perspective

As an important production factor of grain production, agricultural machinery can effectively provide a theoretical basis for agricultural modernization development strategies by exploring its impact on grain production capacity and efficiency. This research starts from the two aspects of grain production capacity and grain production efficiency, takes rice, wheat, and corn as the research objects, and uses the C–D production function and Tobit model as the basis, respectively, to establish two impact models of production capacity and production efficiency. At the same time, according to the different emphases of the two models, this research designs different variable systems and finally uses the data from 2017 to 2021 for empirical analysis. The research results show that the influence coefficients of machinery service income and machinery power resource input on the total grain production capacity are 0.0976 and 0.0437, respectively, with a significant positive impact. At the same time, for rice crops, wheat crops, and corn crops, the amount of mechanization cost per mu has a significant positive impact on the yield capacity of crops, with impact coefficients of 0.0311, 0.0827, and 0.0233, respectively. The supply level of agricultural machinery services and the utilization rate of agricultural machinery services per mu have a significant positive impact on grain production efficiency. The impact coefficients of the supply level of agricultural machinery services per mu are 0.0192, 0.0587, and 0.0241, respectively. The impact coefficients of the agricultural machinery service utilization rate are 0.0059, 0.0148, and 0.0607, respectively, with a significant positive impact. It can be seen that agricultural production mechanization can effectively promote the improvement in grain production capacity and efficiency and promote the process of agricultural modernization. At present, most of the research on industrial mechanization services is biased toward the choice of agricultural mechanization services by farmers. However, this research has carried out the impact mechanism analysis from the perspective of time and space and the perspective of crops, rationalizing the impact mechanism of agricultural production capacity and agricultural production efficiency under agricultural mechanization.

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The Influence of Agricultural Production Mechanization on Grain Production Capacity and Efficiency

Currently change in climate is known as the main environmental difficult that the world face. Its effect is openly reduces agricultural output in particular and economic growth in general. The main objective of the study was to examine the long run and short run effect of climate change on agricultural output in Ethiopia over a period of 1980-2016. The Auto Regresive Distributive Lag approach to co integration was applied to examine the long run and short run effect of climate change on agricultural output. ADF test was used for Unit root test. Result of bound test reveals that there is stable long run relationship between RAGDP, labour force, Mean annual rainfall, Average temperature, agriculture land, and fertilizer input import. The estimated long run model reveals that climate changes have an important effect on agricultural output which is the main contributor of overall GDP of the country. The coefficient of error correction term is -0.738 suggesting about 73.8% annual adjustment towards long run equilibrium. The estimate coefficients of short run show that mean annual rainfall have significant effect whereas average temperature has insignificant effect on output. In the long run both main variable of interest have significant effect on agricultural output with a positive effect from mean annual rainfall and negative effect from average temperature. In order to lessen the effects the study recommends concerned body needs to create a specific policies especially focus on technological adoption that avert effect of increase in temperature and that would result increase on the output by adopting technology at macro and micro level, additionally information regarding climate should be available for producers and consumer.

https://online-journal.unja.ac.id/JES/article/download/9076/5834

Adamu Mulu Ketema

Papers

Effect of climate change on agricultural output in Ethiopia