Микроэкономическая теория банковского дела (Microeconomics of banking)

We develop and estimate a DSGE model for the Brazilian economy as part of the macroe- conomic modeling framework of the Central Bank of Brazil. The model combines the building blocks of standard DSGE models (e.g., price and wage rigidities and adjustment costs) with the following features that better describe the Brazilian economy: (i) a fiscal authority pursuing an explicit target for the primary surplus; (ii) administered or regulated prices as part of the consumer price index; (iii) external nance for imports,which amplies the eects of changes in external nancial conditions on the economy;and (iv) imported goods used in the production of intermediate goods. It also includes the presence of nancially constrained households. We estimate the model with Bayesian techniques, using data since 1999, when in ation targeting was implemented in Brazil.Evaluation based on impulse response functions, moment conditions, variance error decomposition, and initial forecasting exercises suggests that the model can be a useful toolfor policy analysis and forecasting.

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SAMBA: Stochastic Analytical Model with a Bayesian Approach

Are Islamic banks inherently more stable than conventional banks? We address this question by applying a survival analysis based on the Cox proportional hazard model to a comprehensive sample of 421 banks in 20 Middle and Far Eastern countries from 1995 to 2010. By comparing the failure risk for both bank types, we find that Islamic banks have a significantly lower risk of failure than that of their conventional peers. This lower risk is based both unconditionally and conditionally on bank-specific (microeconomic) variables as well as macroeconomic and market structure variables. Our findings indicate that the design and implementation of early warning systems for bank failure should recognize the distinct risk profiles of the two bank types.

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A Survival Analysis of Islamic and Conventional Banks

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The politics of major banking crises has been transformed since the nineteenth century. Analyzing extensive historical and contemporary evidence, Chwieroth and Walter demonstrate that the rising wealth of the middle class has generated 'great expectations' among voters that the government is responsible for the protection of this wealth. Crisis policy interventions have become more extensive and costly - and their political aftermaths far more fraught - because of democratic governance, not in spite of it. Using data from numerous democracies over two centuries, and detailed studies of Brazil, the United Kingdom and the United States, this book breaks new ground in exploring the consequences of the emerging mass political demand for financial stabilization. It shows why great expectations have induced rising financial fragility, more financial sector bailouts and rising political instability and discontent in contemporary democracies, providing new insight to anyone concerned with contemporary policy and politics.

The wealth effect: how the great expectations of the middle class have changed the politics of banking crises

Quantitative easing and related capital flows into Brazil: Measuring its effects and transmission channels through a rigorous counterfactual evaluation

We apply duration (survival) models with exponential hazard and exponential piecewise-constant hazard functions to study the determinants of bank failure over the period 1994 to 1998 in Brazil. The models deal empirically with left censoring in the data. We control for macroeconomic conditions and contagion effects, besides bank-specific factors. Our results indicate that foreign banks have distinct empirical survival functions relatively to other banks. For Brazil, macroeconomic and bank-level covariates explain the likelihood and timing of bank failure. Our indicator of system-wide financial fragility (IFF) suggests that the banking industry faced increased fragility after November 1995. We find evidence that the Program of Incentives to the Restructuring and Strengthening of the National Financial System (Proer) was able to distinguish solvent from insolvent banks.

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Explaining Bank Failures in Brazil: Micro, Macro and Contagion Effects (1994-1998)

This paper proposes a working definition for “financial stability” related to systemic risk. Systemic risk is then measured as the probability of disruption of financial services taking into account its time and cross-sectional dimensions and several risk factors. The paper discusses the implications of this definition for Brazil in the aftermath of the recent global financial crisis. A comparison with the United States and the Euro zone is provided. In addition, systemic risk in the Brazilian credit market is investigated given its crucial role as main financial stability driver. Finally, synthetic indicators of systemic risk are used to monitor financial stability. The link between systemic risk and synthetic indicators and/or well-correlated proxies (e.g., a credit-to-GDP gap) allows the calculation of the probability of disruption of the financial system across its time dimension. Therefore, if a Financial Stability Committee and/or the prudential regulator define its tolerance level for “financial stability” as a threshold measured by this probability of disruption, it might have the capability of determining the precise moment when it should strengthen its set of adequate macroprudential responses and policies.

Financial stability in Brazil

We estimate an identified VAR (SVAR) with contemporaneous restrictions derived from a model of the market for bank reserves, which allows us to disentangle monetary policy shocks from demand shocks for reserves in Brazil. The main results are: i) the Central Bank of Brazil acts in order to smooth the bank reserve market interest rate (Selic); ii) the spread between the Selic rate and the discount rate provides information to estimate the demand curve for borrowed reserves; iii) overidentifying restrictions show that we cannot reject, for any period or model, the interest rate operational target hypothesis, even during the fixed exchange rate regime; iv) the impulse response functions show that shocks to the demand for reserves and to borrowed reserves generate statistically significant responses in real output and the inflation rate; v) all models display the liquidity effect and a small inflation rate puzzle.

Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks in the Brazilian Market for Bank Reserves

This policy paper reviews the rationale for emerging market economies adopting macroprudential policies in an unstable global environment. Monetary policy in these economies is discussed with reference to its complex interaction with global events and spillovers. In particular, the paper describes and discusses macroprudential and monetary policies adopted in Brazil in 2009-10. The paper also reviews the market turbulences caused by the fiscal limit problem in some advanced economies in 2011-12 and explores its consequences for emerging market economies, in particular for Brazil, highlighting the role of macroprudential measures under such circumstances. Global coordination issues are also addressed from an emerging market point of view. Commodity prices, inflation and growth prospects for emerging markets will be discussed as well under a complex and volatile global liquidity environment.

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Adriana Soares Sales

Papers

Quantitative easing and related capital flows into Brazil: Measuring its effects and transmission channels through a rigorous counterfactual evaluation

Explaining Bank Failures in Brazil: Micro, Macro and Contagion Effects (1994-1998)

Financial stability in Brazil

Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks in the Brazilian Market for Bank Reserves

Coping with a Complex Global Environment: a Brazilian perspective on emerging market issues