Uncertainty, production, choice, and agency - The state-contingent approach.

Based on the author's widely used earlier text African Farm Management, this account updates the economic analysis of tropical agriculture and includes examples from all parts of the developing world. Writing in a clear, concise style, Professor Upton explains the essential theories of farm economics without numerous mathematical formulae. This account is completely revised, with increased emphasis on 'farm household economics', in which farms are seen as consumers as well as producers. Containing a new chapter on the economics of irrigated agriculture. This book provides an invaluable economic framework for better understanding the management of farming systems in the tropics, and will be welcomed by students of tropical agriculture worldwide.

The economics of tropical farming systems.

Abstract Background Syria is a developing country whose economy is still dominated by the agricultural sector. The agricultural sector is considered as the main source of food in Syria and a major source of employment and income generation. Food and agricultural policies in Syria focus heavily on achieving food security and improving its four pillars (availability, accessibility, stability and utilization). As a result, until 2011, a good progress has been attained in food availability. The food security situation deteriorated in Syria after 2011 crisis, with the number of people facing acute food insecurity rising from 7.9 million in 2020 to a staggering 12.4 million in 2021. This is the result of many shocks that the agricultural sector has been exposed to, such as the relative decrease in cultivated areas, high costs of production, reduced input availability including labour, prevailing violence, related damage to farm equipment, and abandoned land. In view of the changes that the agricultural sector has been exposed to in Syria as a result of the crisis, the study concerns measuring the technical efficiency of production of some rain-fed cereal and legume crops in Syria and comparing it in the pre and post-crisis period, which has started in 2011. A non-parametric (DEA) method is applied for measuring technical efficiency during the time period 2003–2010 (pre-crisis) and the period 2011–2018 (post-crisis) with censored regression (the tobit model) to investigate the determinants of technical efficiency. A t test is used to test the null hypothesis (H 0 ) that there was no difference in technical efficiency of the production of studied crops before and after the crisis in Syria and the alternative hypothesis (H a ) that there was a significant difference in technical efficiency. Results The findings show low level of technical efficiency in the post-crisis period. The results verified differences in the technical efficiency of pre- and post-crisis period. The use of censored regression with dummy for crisis has shown negative and significant effect on technical efficiency of each of the durum wheat and lentil crops, while it had no significant effect on the other studied crops. Conclusions This study can provide important information to the government to pursue a new policy for recovery and improving the agricultural production and productivity. There is an urgent need to adopt new policies that focus on providing production requirements in the form of low-interest loans, sustainable use of resources, providing support for the marketing process, and focusing on the export markets of some study crops (chickpeas and lentils). Government should improve agricultural extension services for farmers and encouraging them to adopt new technologies. 

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Evaluation of technical efficiency of some rain-fed cereal and legume crops production in Syria: does crisis matter?

This thesis aims at measuring the impact of agricultural policy on water use and farms’ incomes in the northeast of the Syrian Arab Republic. The scope of the research is confined to the three governorates of Deir-Ezzour (DEG), Al-Rakka (RAK), and Al-Hassakeh (HAG). The choice of these governorates, that together form the Northeast of Syria, is due to their heavy reliance on policy regulated crops, which makes them relatively more sensitive to any policy reform. Moreover, the negative impact of the current policy on water balance is evident in the Northeast, especially in the area of Al-Khabour basin, located almost entirely in HAG.
In the thesis, irrigated agriculture of the Northeast of Syria has been modelled by a set of representative farms, using the General Algebraic Modelling System (GAMS). The representative farms’ programming models are calibrated on data on observed cropping patterns and water use of 2005. Then, the policy reforms that have occurred after 2005 are considered in the models by changing the values of the relevant policy parameters and new baseline results obtained, inclusive of the most recent implemented reforms.
The comparison between the baseline results of 2005 and the post-reform baseline results show that the recent reform is expected to have a limited impact on water use and farm income. Predicted changes in water use are less than +5% on average, over the entire region, although they vary across the three governorates of the region, with negative change in Al-Hassakeh, and positive in Al-Rakka and Deir-Ezzour. On the other hand, changes in income levels and stability are more noticeable in the three governorates and are always positive. The changes in average income levels range from +15% in Deir-Ezzour to +3% in Al-Hassakeh. The impact on the stability of income is of the same magnitude in percent terms. It is of interest to note that the impact of the recent policy reforms, due to the stabilization of maize price, is greater on income stability than on average income levels in the three governorates.
The next analysis has involved simulation of alternative policy scenarios, including introduction of modern irrigation technology, reform in the farm credit system, and stabilization of alternative crops’ prices. The simulations reveal interesting policy implications. They illustrate that adoption of modern irrigation techniques, even by all farms in the region, would not solve the water scarcity problem in Al-Khabour basin where there will still be a noticeable deficit. This is due to the still low efficiency of modern irrigation schemes in the current condition of the region, but also because our model predicts that water saved thanks to the adoption of modern irrigation schemes will allow expansion of irrigated land. In addition, the results show that decoupling access to official credit from strategic crops would have negligible effects on cropping patterns and, consequently, water use. Similar results come out if the subsidy currently linked to cotton irrigated from private wells would be decoupled. Of the various possible simulated policies, stabilizing cumin price would have the largest positive impact on water consumption, because of expanding cumin cultivation, which is a crop with irrigation requirements, at the expense of wheat and other winter crops. 
The thesis adds to the evidence that price policy is potentially the instrument that affects farmers’ decision the most. If effective in stabilizing price for water saving crops, this may be an important tool to combine farm welfare improvement with increased sustainability in water use.

Ahmad Sadiddin

Papers

Agricultural Policy Impact on the Stability of Farm Income and Water Use in the North-East of the Syrian Arab Republic