We will review some of the major results in random graphs and some of the more challenging open problems. We will cover algorithmic and structural questions. We will touch on newer models, including those related to the WWW.

Random graphs

Preface 1. Decision-Theoretic Foundations 1.1 Game Theory, Rationality, and Intelligence 1.2 Basic Concepts of Decision Theory 1.3 Axioms 1.4 The Expected-Utility Maximization Theorem 1.5 Equivalent Representations 1.6 Bayesian Conditional-Probability Systems 1.7 Limitations of the Bayesian Model 1.8 Domination 1.9 Proofs of the Domination Theorems Exercises 2. Basic Models 2.1 Games in Extensive Form 2.2 Strategic Form and the Normal Representation 2.3 Equivalence of Strategic-Form Games 2.4 Reduced Normal Representations 2.5 Elimination of Dominated Strategies 2.6 Multiagent Representations 2.7 Common Knowledge 2.8 Bayesian Games 2.9 Modeling Games with Incomplete Information Exercises 3. Equilibria of Strategic-Form Games 3.1 Domination and Ratonalizability 3.2 Nash Equilibrium 3.3 Computing Nash Equilibria 3.4 Significance of Nash Equilibria 3.5 The Focal-Point Effect 3.6 The Decision-Analytic Approach to Games 3.7 Evolution. Resistance. and Risk Dominance 3.8 Two-Person Zero-Sum Games 3.9 Bayesian Equilibria 3.10 Purification of Randomized Strategies in Equilibria 3.11 Auctions 3.12 Proof of Existence of Equilibrium 3.13 Infinite Strategy Sets Exercises 4. Sequential Equilibria of Extensive-Form Games 4.1 Mixed Strategies and Behavioral Strategies 4.2 Equilibria in Behavioral Strategies 4.3 Sequential Rationality at Information States with Positive Probability 4.4 Consistent Beliefs and Sequential Rationality at All Information States 4.5 Computing Sequential Equilibria 4.6 Subgame-Perfect Equilibria 4.7 Games with Perfect Information 4.8 Adding Chance Events with Small Probability 4.9 Forward Induction 4.10 Voting and Binary Agendas 4.11 Technical Proofs Exercises 5. Refinements of Equilibrium in Strategic Form 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Perfect Equilibria 5.3 Existence of Perfect and Sequential Equilibria 5.4 Proper Equilibria 5.5 Persistent Equilibria 5.6 Stable Sets 01 Equilibria 5.7 Generic Properties 5.8 Conclusions Exercises 6. Games with Communication 6.1 Contracts and Correlated Strategies 6.2 Correlated Equilibria 6.3 Bayesian Games with Communication 6.4 Bayesian Collective-Choice Problems and Bayesian Bargaining Problems 6.5 Trading Problems with Linear Utility 6.6 General Participation Constraints for Bayesian Games with Contracts 6.7 Sender-Receiver Games 6.8 Acceptable and Predominant Correlated Equilibria 6.9 Communication in Extensive-Form and Multistage Games Exercises Bibliographic Note 7. Repeated Games 7.1 The Repeated Prisoners Dilemma 7.2 A General Model of Repeated Garnet 7.3 Stationary Equilibria of Repeated Games with Complete State Information and Discounting 7.4 Repeated Games with Standard Information: Examples 7.5 General Feasibility Theorems for Standard Repeated Games 7.6 Finitely Repeated Games and the Role of Initial Doubt 7.7 Imperfect Observability of Moves 7.8 Repeated Wines in Large Decentralized Groups 7.9 Repeated Games with Incomplete Information 7.10 Continuous Time 7.11 Evolutionary Simulation of Repeated Games Exercises 8. Bargaining and Cooperation in Two-Person Games 8.1 Noncooperative Foundations of Cooperative Game Theory 8.2 Two-Person Bargaining Problems and the Nash Bargaining Solution 8.3 Interpersonal Comparisons of Weighted Utility 8.4 Transferable Utility 8.5 Rational Threats 8.6 Other Bargaining Solutions 8.7 An Alternating-Offer Bargaining Game 8.8 An Alternating-Offer Game with Incomplete Information 8.9 A Discrete Alternating-Offer Game 8.10 Renegotiation Exercises 9. Coalitions in Cooperative Games 9.1 Introduction to Coalitional Analysis 9.2 Characteristic Functions with Transferable Utility 9.3 The Core 9.4 The Shapkey Value 9.5 Values with Cooperation Structures 9.6 Other Solution Concepts 9.7 Colational Games with Nontransferable Utility 9.8 Cores without Transferable Utility 9.9 Values without Transferable Utility Exercises Bibliographic Note 10. Cooperation under Uncertainty 10.1 Introduction 10.2 Concepts of Efficiency 10.3 An Example 10.4 Ex Post Inefficiency and Subsequent Oilers 10.5 Computing Incentive-Efficient Mechanisms 10.6 Inscrutability and Durability 10.7 Mechanism Selection by an Informed Principal 10.8 Neutral Bargaining Solutions 10.9 Dynamic Matching Processes with Incomplete Information Exercises Bibliography Index

博弈论 : 矛盾冲突分析 = Game theory : analysis of conflict

https://www.linkgroup.hu/docs/13PharmTher.pdf

Structure and dynamics of molecular networks: A novel paradigm of drug discovery: A comprehensive review

We survey recent trends in practical algorithms for balanced graph partitioning, point to applications and discuss future research directions.

/pdf/recent-advances-in-graph-partitioning-4eois71ejs.pdf

Recent Advances in Graph Partitioning

Passive immunisation for the prevention and treatment of human infectious diseases can be traced back to the 20(th) century. The recent Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa has turned the spotlight onto the possible use of convalescent whole blood and convalescent plasma in the treatment of infectious diseases because they are the only therapeutic strategy available in some cases, given the unavailability of vaccines, drugs or other specific treatments. Convalescent blood products could be a valid option in the treatment/prophylaxis of several infectious diseases both in association with other drugs/preventive measures and as the only therapy when a specific treatment is not available. However, there are still some issues to consider in determining the advisability of implementing a large-scale convalescent plasma transfusion programme.

Convalescent plasma: new evidence for an old therapeutic tool?

Building resilience into today's complex infrastructures is critical to the daily functioning of society and its ability to withstand and recover from natural disasters, epidemics, and cyber-threats. This study proposes quantitative measures that capture and implement the definition of engineering resilience advanced by the National Academy of Sciences. The approach is applicable across physical, information, and social domains. It evaluates the critical functionality, defined as a performance function of time set by the stakeholders. Critical functionality is a source of valuable information, such as the integrated system resilience over a time interval, and its robustness. The paper demonstrates the formulation on two classes of models: 1) multi-level directed acyclic graphs, and 2) interdependent coupled networks. For both models synthetic case studies are used to explore trends. For the first class, the approach is also applied to the Linux operating system. Results indicate that desired resilience and robustness levels are achievable by trading off different design parameters, such as redundancy, node recovery time, and backup supply available. The nonlinear relationship between network parameters and resilience levels confirms the utility of the proposed approach, which is of benefit to analysts and designers of complex systems and networks.

/pdf/operational-resilience-concepts-design-and-analysis-3ng6wvnr1a.pdf

Operational resilience: Concepts, design and analysis

Complex socioeconomic networks such as information, finance and even terrorist networks need resilience to cascades - to prevent the failure of a single node from causing a far-reaching domino effect. We show that terrorist and guerrilla networks are uniquely cascade-resilient while maintaining high efficiency, but they become more vulnerable beyond a certain threshold. We also introduce an optimization method for constructing networks with high passive cascade resilience. The optimal networks are found to be based on cells, where each cell has a star topology. Counterintuitively, we find that there are conditions where networks should not be modified to stop cascades because doing so would come at a disproportionate loss of efficiency. Implementation of these findings can lead to more cascade-resilient networks in many diverse areas.

/pdf/optimizing-topological-cascade-resilience-based-on-the-3liubtbyjh.pdf

Optimizing topological cascade resilience based on the structure of terrorist networks.

Relationships between entities in complex systems could be represented using the paradigm of networks. The network representation can then reveal the evolution, structure and dynamics of those systems. Frequently, obtaining the required scientific data about the networks is expensive or infeasible. In other words, the amount of available empirical data is insufficient for simulation, validation, verification, and other scientific tasks. In these situations, empirical data should be augmented by synthetic data generated from models in such a way that properties of the system are preserved in the synthetic data, even when those properties are unique to the system or not fully known, but existing methods only reproduce a limited set of specified network properties. Here we introduce a novel strategy for synthesizing artificial networks that can realistically model a variety of network properties and that is termed multiscale network generation, or as a specific algorithm, MUSKETEER. This strategy first creates a hierarchy of aggregated representations of the original network, and then reformulates the network generation problem at all levels of this hierarchy in order to take into account properties at multiple scales of the system. The network is then edited at any or all scales, depending on the desired variability in the ensemble of synthetic networks. We find that for many complex networks taken from real-world systems, the strategy is able to preserve important properties with little statistical bias while achieving high degree of variability and arbitrary difference from the original.

https://people.cs.clemson.edu/~isafro/papers/musk-fusion.pdf

Multiscale network generation

Importance Infection with the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the leading cause of hospitalizations in children, accounting for more than 90 000 hospitalizations every year in the United States. For children who are at risk for severe RSV infections, the American Academy of Pediatrics recommends immunoprophylaxis with a series of up to 5 injections of the antibody palivizumab administered monthly, beginning on November 1 of each year. However, many practitioners initiate injections at the onset of RSV season as indicated by local surveillance. Objectives To evaluate the effectiveness of current regimens for palivizumab injections across different cities and to design an optimized regimen. Design, Setting, and Participants We performed a mathematical modeling study of the risk for hospitalization due to RSV infection. The model accounted for the pharmacokinetics of the antibody, the timing of the injections, and seasonal patterns of RSV, including geographic and year-to-year variability. We used the model to estimate the efficacy of current regimens, including the American Academy of Pediatrics recommendation, and to design a more effective injection regimen, the optimized fixed start (OFS), which uses city-specific initiation dates. Participants were the approximately 700 000 individuals who had specimens tested for RSV by National Respiratory and Enteric Virus Surveillance System laboratories in 18 US cities from July 1, 1994, through June 30, 2011 (a total of 725 741 tests). Interventions Different palivizumab injection regimens. Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcome measure was reduction in hospitalizations due to RSV infections. The secondary measures were cost (number of palivizumab doses) and duration of protection (in days). Results The American Academy of Pediatrics–recommended 5-injection regimen is expected to reduce hospitalization risk by a median of 2.7% (range, −2.2% to 6.1%) compared with the conventional regimen based on RSV surveillance. The 5-injection OFS regimen is expected to further reduce risk by a median of 6.8% (range, 4.9% to 14.8%), and the 4-injection OFS regimen is expected to achieve efficacy comparable to that of the conventional 5-injection regimen while reducing costs by 20%. Conclusions and Relevance Modified palivizumab regimens can improve protection for children at risk for severe outcomes of RSV infection and thereby lower rates of hospitalization due to RSV.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/articlepdf/2130731/poi140100.pdf

Efficacy and Optimization of Palivizumab Injection Regimens Against Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection

Terrorist organizations change over time because of processes such as recruitment and training as well as counter-terrorism (CT) measures, but the effects of these processes are typically studied qualitatively and in separation from each other. Seeking a more quantitative and integrated understanding, we constructed a simple dynamic model where equations describe how these processes change an organization’s membership. Analysis of the model yields a number of intuitive as well as novel findings. Most importantly it becomes possible to predict whether counter-terrorism measures would be sufficient to defeat the organization. Furthermore, we can prove in general that an organization would collapse if its strength and its pool of foot soldiers decline simultaneously. In contrast, a simultaneous decline in its strength and its pool of leaders is often insufficient and short-termed. These results and other like them demonstrate the great potential of dynamic models for informing terrorism scholarship and counter-terrorism policy making.

Alexander Gutfraind

Papers

Operational resilience: Concepts, design and analysis

Optimizing topological cascade resilience based on the structure of terrorist networks.

Multiscale network generation

Efficacy and Optimization of Palivizumab Injection Regimens Against Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection

Understanding Terrorist Organizations with a Dynamic Model