Summary Background Since December, 2019, Wuhan, China, has experienced an outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of patients with COVID-19 have been reported but risk factors for mortality and a detailed clinical course of illness, including viral shedding, have not been well described. Methods In this retrospective, multicentre cohort study, we included all adult inpatients (≥18 years old) with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 from Jinyintan Hospital and Wuhan Pulmonary Hospital (Wuhan, China) who had been discharged or had died by Jan 31, 2020. Demographic, clinical, treatment, and laboratory data, including serial samples for viral RNA detection, were extracted from electronic medical records and compared between survivors and non-survivors. We used univariable and multivariable logistic regression methods to explore the risk factors associated with in-hospital death. Findings 191 patients (135 from Jinyintan Hospital and 56 from Wuhan Pulmonary Hospital) were included in this study, of whom 137 were discharged and 54 died in hospital. 91 (48%) patients had a comorbidity, with hypertension being the most common (58 [30%] patients), followed by diabetes (36 [19%] patients) and coronary heart disease (15 [8%] patients). Multivariable regression showed increasing odds of in-hospital death associated with older age (odds ratio 1·10, 95% CI 1·03–1·17, per year increase; p=0·0043), higher Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score (5·65, 2·61–12·23; p Interpretation The potential risk factors of older age, high SOFA score, and d-dimer greater than 1 μg/mL could help clinicians to identify patients with poor prognosis at an early stage. Prolonged viral shedding provides the rationale for a strategy of isolation of infected patients and optimal antiviral interventions in the future. Funding Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences; National Science Grant for Distinguished Young Scholars; National Key Research and Development Program of China; The Beijing Science and Technology Project; and Major Projects of National Science and Technology on New Drug Creation and Development.

Clinical course and risk factors for mortality of adult inpatients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: a retrospective cohort study

The author's preface gives an outline: "This book is about weakconvergence methods in metric spaces, with applications sufficient to show their power and utility. The Introduction motivates the definitions and indicates how the theory will yield solutions to problems arising outside it. Chapter 1 sets out the basic general theorems, which are then specialized in Chapter 2 to the space C[0, l ] of continuous functions on the unit interval and in Chapter 3 to the space D [0, 1 ] of functions with discontinuities of the first kind. The results of the first three chapters are used in Chapter 4 to derive a variety of limit theorems for dependent sequences of random variables. " The book develops and expands on Donsker's 1951 and 1952 papers on the invariance principle and empirical distributions. The basic random variables remain real-valued although, of course, measures on C[0, l ] and D[0, l ] are vitally used. Within this framework, there are various possibilities for a different and apparently better treatment of the material. More of the general theory of weak convergence of probabilities on separable metric spaces would be useful. Metrizability of the convergence is not brought up until late in the Appendix. The close relation of the Prokhorov metric and a metric for convergence in probability is (hence) not mentioned (see V. Strassen, Ann. Math. Statist. 36 (1965), 423-439; the reviewer, ibid. 39 (1968), 1563-1572). This relation would illuminate and organize such results as Theorems 4.1, 4.2 and 4.4 which give isolated, ad hoc connections between weak convergence of measures and nearness in probability. In the middle of p. 16, it should be noted that C*(S) consists of signed measures which need only be finitely additive if 5 is not compact. On p. 239, where the author twice speaks of separable subsets having nonmeasurable cardinal, he means "discrete" rather than "separable." Theorem 1.4 is Ulam's theorem that a Borel probability on a complete separable metric space is tight. Theorem 1 of Appendix 3 weakens completeness to topological completeness. After mentioning that probabilities on the rationals are tight, the author says it is an

Convergence of probability measures

The class of beta regression models is commonly used by practitioners to model variables that assume values in the standard unit interval (0, 1). It is based on the assumption that the dependent variable is beta-distributed and that its mean is related to a set of regressors through a linear predictor with unknown coefficients and a link function. The model also includes a precision parameter which may be constant or depend on a (potentially different) set of regressors through a link function as well. This approach naturally incorporates features such as heteroskedasticity or skewness which are commonly observed in data taking values in the standard unit interval, such as rates or proportions. This paper describes the betareg package which provides the class of beta regressions in the R system for statistical computing. The underlying theory is briefly outlined, the implementation discussed and illustrated in various replication exercises.

Beta Regression in R

This paper presents a polynomial dimensional decomposition (PDD) method for global sensitivity analysis of stochastic systems subject to independent random input following arbitrary probability distributions. The method involves Fourier-polynomial expansions of lower-variate component functions of a stochastic response by measure-consistent orthonormal polynomial bases, analytical formulae for calculating the global sensitivity indices in terms of the expansion coefficients, and dimension-reduction integration for estimating the expansion coefficients. Due to identical dimensional structures of PDD and analysis-of-variance decomposition, the proposed method facilitates simple and direct calculation of the global sensitivity indices. Numerical results of the global sensitivity indices computed for smooth systems reveal significantly higher convergence rates of the PDD approximation than those from existing methods, including polynomial chaos expansion, random balance design, state-dependent parameter, improved Sobol’s method, and sampling-based methods. However, for non-smooth functions, the convergence properties of the PDD solution deteriorate to a great extent, warranting further improvements. The computational complexity of the PDD method is polynomial, as opposed to exponential, thereby alleviating the curse of dimensionality to some extent. Mathematical modeling of complex systems often requires sensitivity analysis to determine how an output variable of interest is influenced by individual or subsets of input variables. A traditional local sensitivity analysis entails gradients or derivatives, often invoked in design optimization, describing changes in the model response due to the local variation of input. Depending on the model output, obtaining gradients or derivatives, if they exist, can be simple or difficult. In contrast, a global sensitivity analysis (GSA), increasingly becoming mainstream, characterizes how the global variation of input, due to its uncertainty, impacts the overall uncertain behavior of the model. In other words, GSA constitutes the study of how the output uncertainty from a mathematical model is divvied up, qualitatively or quantitatively, to distinct sources of input variation in the model [1].

Reliability Engineering and System Safety

A general class of zero-or-one inflated beta regression models

Improved estimators for a general class of beta regression models

Nadarajah and Gupta (2004) introduced the beta Frechet (BF) distribution, which is a generalization of the exponentiated Frechet (EF) and Frechet distributions, and obtained the probability density and cumulative distribution functions. However, they did not investigate the moments and the order statistics. In this article, the BF density function and the density function of the order statistics are expressed as linear combinations of Frechet density functions. This is important to obtain some mathematical properties of the BF distribution in terms of the corresponding properties of the Frechet distribution. We derive explicit expansions for the ordinary moments and L-moments and obtain the order statistics and their moments. We also discuss maximum likelihood estimation and calculate the information matrix which was not given in the literature. The information matrix is numerically determined. The usefulness of the BF distribution is illustrated through two applications to real data sets.

Some Results for Beta Fréchet Distribution

In this article, we consider the issue of assessing influence of observations in the general class of beta regression models introduced by Simas et al. (Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 54:348–366, 2010), which is very useful in situations in which the response is restricted to the standard unit interval (0,1). Our results generalize those in Espinheira et al. (Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 52:4417–4431, 2008a; J. Appl. Stat. 35:407–419, 2008b), which only apply to linear beta regression models. We define some residuals, and a Portmanteau test for serial correlation. Further, some influence methods, such as the global, local, and total local influence of an individual and generalized leverage, are discussed. Moreover, we also derive the normal curvatures of local influence under various perturbation schemes. Finally, simulation results and an application to real data show the usefulness of our results.

Influence diagnostics in a general class of beta regression models

In this paper, we consider the two-parameter Birnbaum–Saunders distribution proposed by Birnbaum and Saunders [Birnbaum, Z.W. and Saunders, S.C., 1969, A new family of life distributions. Journal of Applied Probability, 6, 319–327], which is commonly used for modeling the lifetime of materials and equipment. We consider different strategies of bias correction of the maximum-likelihood estimators for the parameters that index the distribution via bootstrap (parametric and nonparametric). The numerical evidence favors a particular bootstrap estimator based on parametric resampling. Finally, an example with real data is presented and discussed.

Bootstrap-based improved estimators for the two-parameter Birnbaum–Saunders distribution

We introduce a variational theory for processes adapted to the multidimensional Brownian motion filtration that provides a differential structure allowing to describe infinitesimal evolution of Wiener functionals at very small scales. The main novel idea is to compute the “sensitivities” of processes, namely derivatives of martingale components and a weak notion of infinitesimal generator, via a finite-dimensional approximation procedure based on controlled inter-arrival times and approximating martingales. The theory comes with convergence results that allow to interpret a large class of Wiener functionals beyond semimartingales as limiting objects of differential forms which can be computed path wisely over finite-dimensional spaces. The theory reveals that solutions of BSDEs are minimizers of energy functionals w.r.t. Brownian motion driving noise.

/pdf/a-weak-version-of-path-dependent-functional-ito-calculus-brpyq38j1f.pdf

Alexandre B. Simas

Papers

Improved estimators for a general class of beta regression models

Some Results for Beta Fréchet Distribution

Influence diagnostics in a general class of beta regression models

Bootstrap-based improved estimators for the two-parameter Birnbaum–Saunders distribution

A weak version of path-dependent functional Itô calculus