This volume, written by leading authorities from Eastern Europe, outlines the history of the health and environmental consequences of the Chernobyl disaster. Although there has been much discussion concerning the impacts of nuclear accidents, and Chernobyl in particular, never before has there been a comprehensive presentation of all the available information concerning the health and environmental effects of the low dose radioactive contaminants that were emitted from the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant. The official discussions emanating from the IAEA and associated UN agencies (e.g. the Chernobyl Forum reports) have largely downplayed or ignored many of the findings reported in the Eastern European scientific literature and as a consequence these reports have erred on the side of negative findings simply because much of what was known was not included in their assessments. This new book provides a complete and extensive summary of all known research, including that published in Russian and Ukrainian, and provides new insights to the likely long term health and environmental consequences of nuclear accidents. NOTE: Annals volumes are available for sale as individual books or as a journal. For information on institutional journal subscriptions, please visit www.blackwellpublishing.com/nyas. ACADEMY MEMBERS: Please contact the New York Academy of Sciences directly to place your order (www.nyas.org). Members of the New York Academy of Science receive full-text access to the Annals online and discounts on print volumes. Please visit http://www.nyas.org/MemberCenter/Join.aspx for more information about becoming a member.

https://wonkythinking.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Charles-review.pdf

Chernobyl: Consequences of the Catastrophe for People and the Environment

Little is known about the response behavior of parents whose children are ex-posed to an early-life shock. We interpret the prenatal exposure of the Austrian 1986 cohort to radioactive fallout from the Chernobyl accident as a negative hu-man capital shock and examine their parents' response behavior. To identify causal effects, we can rely on exogenous variation in the exposure to radioactive fallout (over time and) between communities due to geographic differences in precipitation at the time of the accident. Our design-based approach (which ac-counts for culling effects) provides robust empirical evidence for compensating investment behavior. Families with low socioeconomic status reduce their family size, while families with higher status respond with reduced maternal labor sup-ply. Our results urge caution in the interpretation of estimates of the long-term effects of early-life shocks on children. These estimates should only be interpreted as reduced-form estimates, and one has to account for parental response behav-ior to reach a deeper understanding on the relationship between early-life shocks and the formation of human capital. In the case of our application, we can inter-pret the estimates as the lower bound of the biological effect. For exposed chil-dren from higher socioeconomic backgrounds, there are no detrimental effects discernable. In contrast, exposed children from lower socioeconomic backgrounds have significantly worse human capital outcomes as young adults. This suggests that compensating investment by parents with higher socioeconomic status is relatively more effective.

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Parental response to early human capital shocks: Evidence from the Chernobyl accident

Possible effects of Chernobyl fallout on outcome of pregnancy in Finland were evaluated in a nationwide follow-up study. The outcomes were the rate of live births and stillbirths, pregnancy loss, and induced abortions by municipality. Exposure was assessed based on nationwide surveys of radiation dose rate from the Chernobyl fallout, from both external and internal exposures. Using these measurements, we estimated the monthly dose rate for each of the 455 Finnish municipalities. On average, the dose rate from Chernobyl fallout reached 50 microSv per month in May 1986--a doubling of the natural background radiation. In the most heavily affected area, 4 times the normal background dose rates were recorded. Given the underlying regional differences in live birth, stillbirth, and abortion rates, we used longitudinal analysis comparing changes over time within municipalities. A temporary decline in the live birth rate had already begun before 1986, with no clear relationship to the level of fallout. A statistically significant increase in spontaneous abortions with dose of radiation was observed. No marked changes in induced abortions or stillbirths were observed. The decrease in the live birth rate is probably not a biological effect of radiation, but more likely related to public concerns of the fallout. The effect on spontaneous abortions should be interpreted with caution, because of potential bias or confounding. Further, there is little support in the epidemiologic literature on effects of very low doses of radiation on pregnancy outcome.

Chernobyl fallout and outcome of pregnancy in Finland.

The 1986 nuclear reactor acci- dent at Chernobyl caused nonuniform radiocontamina- tion of air and land, primarily within regions of the former Soviet Union and Western Europe. Major expo- sure groups included the reactor workers, villagers evacuated from within 30 km of the accident, the ''liquidators'' who decontaminated the evacuation zone afterward, those in radiocontaminated villages not evacuated, and ''others'' not in the latter categories. The possibility of being exposed to radiation caused considerable anxiety, especially among pregnant women. Were teratogenic levels of radiation ($0.1 Gy) exposure attained? To date there is no consistent proof that this level of radiation exposure was received. Nevertheless, thousands of induced abortions were performed. Radioiodine (I-131) caused thyroid cancer in young children in portions of Belarus, the Ukraine, and Russia. It is not known but very possible that I-131 fetal thyroid exposure contributed to this observation. The relationship between mental retardation and radia- tion exposure has not been confirmed. Leukemia and other cancers, while predicted for the liquidators (mainly males), has not been found in the other exposure groups at this time. Investigations of aborted fetuses and newborns in Belarus showed an increase in the frequency of both congenital and fetal abnormalities in high and low Cs-137 contaminated regions. This study is unreliable due to detection and selection biases. Accident and environmental factors unrelated to radia- tion doses may have contributed to these observations. Occasional positive teratogenic studies in less contami- nated regions of Western Europe are suspect because of the low radiation doses received. There is no substantive proof regarding radiation-induced terato- genic effects from the Chernobyl accident. Teratology 60:100-106, 1999. r 1999 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

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Teratogen update: Radiation and chernobyl

Background Numerous investigations have been carried out concerning the possible impact of the Chernobyl accident, in April 1986, on the prevalence of anomalies at birth and on perinatal mortality. The accident has contaminated Eastern Europe more heavily than Western Europe. If there was an effect of the radioactive contamination on perinatal mortality or stillbirth proportions one would expect to find it more pronounced in Eastern Europe as compared to Western Europe. We therefore studied long-term time trends in European stillbirth proportions. Methods Linear logistic regression was applied to model the time trends in stillbirth proportions. Dummy variables were used to account for effects that can be associated with certain years or locations. A synoptic logistic regression model is suggested for the western, central, and eastern parts of Europe. Results There is a marked differential effect in the long-term stillbirth time trends between Western Europe (Belgium, France, Great Britain, Iceland, Ireland, Luxembourg, Portugal, Spain), Central Europe (Austria, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Norway, Switzerland), and Eastern Europe represented by four countries (Greece, Hungary, Poland, Sweden). In contrast to the western and central European trends, the eastern European trend exhibits an absolute increase of the stillbirth proportion in 1986 as compared with 1985 and an apparent upward shift of the whole trend line from 1986 on. Conclusion Our results are in contrast to those of many analyses of the health consequences of the Chernobyl accident and contradict the present radiobiological knowledge. As we are dealing with highly aggregated data, other causes or artefacts may explain the observed effects. Hence, the findings should be interpreted with caution and further independent evidence should be sought.

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European stillbirth proportions before and after the Chernobyl accident.

Perinatal mortality in Germany was investigated with respect to a possible relationship to the nuclear accident in Chernobyl on April 26, 1986. Using annual data of perinatal mortality, a trend analysis based on an appropriately chosen statistical model was performed which showed a significant increase in 1987. In addition, we calculated the cesium concentration in women's bodies using data of the cesium concentration in milk. We found two peaks of cesium concentration that were associated with the observed two peaks of monthly perinatal mortality data with a delay of 7 months.

Perinatal mortality in Germany following the Chernobyl accident

Objective This study investigates the trend of perinatal mortality rates in Fukushima Prefecture and four neighboring prefectures (Miyagi, Gunma, Tochigi, and Ibaraki) after the disaster at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in March 2011. Material and methods Japanese monthly perinatal mortality data on a prefecture level are available on a website of the Japanese government. A combined regression of perinatal mortality rates from the study region and the rest of Japan (the control region) is conducted. The regression model allows for an asymptotic lower limit and a level change of perinatal mortality rates in 2012-2017 in the study region relative to the predicted trend. Results In 2012-2017, perinatal mortality in the study region shows a significant 10.6% increase relative to the trend in preceding years (p = 0.006). The excess mortality translates to 195 (95% CI: 28, 462) excess perinatal deaths. The increase is three times greater in Fukushima Prefecture than in the four neighboring prefectures and the difference in excess rates is statistically significant (p = 0.010). Periodic peaks of perinatal mortality are found in 2012-2017 with maxima around April. Conclusion We find an increase in perinatal mortality in Fukushima and four neighboring prefectures after the Fukushima nuclear accident. The results agree with similar observations in Germany and Ukraine after the Chernobyl disaster. Due to its ecological design, the study cannot prove a causal link between radiation exposure and perinatal mortality. Continued observation of the trend of perinatal mortality in contaminated regions of Japan is recommended.

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1361-6498/ab36a3/pdf

Perinatal mortality after the Fukushima accident: a spatiotemporal analysis.

This study investigates trends in perinatal mortality rates in Fukushima Prefecture and four neighboring prefectures (Miyagi, Gunma, Tochigi, and Ibaraki) before and after the Fukushima nuclear disaster in March 2011. Beginning in 2012, perinatal mortality rates deviate upwards from the trend in preceding years; the monthly data show significant peaks in May 2012 and March 2013. It is unlikely that these peaks are associated with external radiation exposures received during March 2011. They might rather be associated with internal radiation exposure from the ingestion of radioactively contaminated food. These findings agree with similar observations in Germany after Chernobyl, but they conflict with statements by WHO and UNSCEAR that no adverse effects of the Fukushima accident on pregnancy outcomes are expected.

http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1361-6498/aa79b5/pdf

Perinatal mortality after the Fukushima accident.

Response to the letter to the editor by H. H. Rossi.

Malformation rates in the German state of Bavaria, as a whole, did not increase in 1987, the year following the Chernobyl accident. Also an analysis of the monthly data does not show any association between radiation exposure and malformation rates seven months later. But in a detailed analysis on the level of districts, taking the spatial structure into account, we find an association between malformation rates and the calculated caesium concentration in pregnant women. We used a non-parametric estimation of the dose-response relationship, which gives an increasing malformation risk for regions with higher caesium exposure. The results should be interpreted carefully since the analysis has been conducted as an explorative observational study. The results are not in line with the present understanding of the biological effects, including the existence of a threshold dose, for teratogenic effects of low level ionising radiation. Background Ionising radiation is an established risk factor for congenital malformations making them an relevant endpoint in the study of possible health effects from the Chernobyl accident. An increased prevalence of congenital malformations at birth was reported for different European countries after the Chernobyl accident. However, existing databases often do not meet quality criteria required for meaningful epidemiologic analysis. The EUROCAT registry only covers approximately 10% of the European population. Also, underascertainment of prevalent cases is a systematic problem in many registers. An overview of the literature on malformation rates following Chernobyl is given in a review article by Hoffmann [1]. In northern Turkey, a significant increase of neural tube defects was reported. A rise in congenital malformations after Chernobyl was found in Belarus. In Croatia, an increase of CNS anomalies was detected in aborted foetuses or in newborns that died within 28 days of delivery. The EUROCAT registry, however, revealed no indication of a systematic increase in the prevalence of Down’s syndrome, anencephaly, or spina bifida. Most researchers argued that the radiation exposure from the Chernobyl fallout would be too low to cause any measurable increase in malformation rates. In Germany, data of the prevalence of malformations at birth were collected a posteriori in the State of Bavaria, several years before and after Chernobyl (1984 to 1991). Bavaria was the German Federal state with the highest radiation exposure from Chernobyl. A study, conducted by the German Federal Office of Radiation Protection (Bundesamt fur Strahlenschutz, BfS), found no significant difference in malformation rates between the higher exposed southern part of Bavaria and the less contaminated northern part following Chernobyl [2]. In a study on perinatal mortality in Germany following the Chernobyl accident, Korblein and Kuchenhoff found a small but statistically significant mortality rise in 1987, the year after the Chernobyl accident. Furthermore, an analysis of the monthly data gave an association between caesium burden and perinatal mortality seven months later [3]. There would have been a similar possible effect on congenital malformations as experimental studies on mice have shown that irradiation of the foetus with 200 R during the period of

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Alfred Körblein

Papers

Perinatal mortality in Germany following the Chernobyl accident

Perinatal mortality after the Fukushima accident: a spatiotemporal analysis.

Perinatal mortality after the Fukushima accident.

Response to the letter to the editor by H. H. Rossi.

Combined Spatial-Temporal Analysis of Malformation Rates in Bavaria After the Chernobyl Accident