/pdf/fisheries-management-in-a-changing-climate-lessons-from-the-frd97wwigt.pdf

Fisheries Management in a Changing Climate Lessons from the 2012 Ocean Heat Wave in the Northwest Atlantic

The last decade has produced record-breaking heat waves in many parts of the world. At the same time, it was globally the warmest since sufficient measurements started in the 19th century. Here we show that, worldwide, the number of local record-breaking monthly temperature extremes is now on average five times larger than expected in a climate with no long-term warming. This implies that on average there is an 80 % chance that a new monthly heat record is due to climatic change. Large regional differences exist in the number of observed records. Summertime records, which are associated with prolonged heat waves, increased by more than a factor of ten in some continental regions including parts of Europe, Africa, southern Asia and Amazonia. Overall, these high record numbers are quantitatively consistent with those expected for the observed climatic warming trend with added stationary white noise. In addition, we find that the observed records cluster both in space and in time. Strong El Nino years see additional records superimposed on the expected long-term rise. Under a medium global warming scenario, by the 2040s we predict the number of monthly heat records globally to be more than 12 times as high as in a climate with no long-term warming.

/pdf/global-increase-in-record-breaking-monthly-mean-temperatures-3dv29oe2yg.pdf

Global increase in record-breaking monthly-mean temperatures

Recent global crises reveal an emerging pattern of causation that could increasingly characterize the birth and progress of future global crises. A conceptual framework identifies this pattern's deep causes, intermediate processes, and ultimate outcomes. The framework shows how multiple stresses can interact within a single social-ecological system to cause a shift in that system's behavior, how simultaneous shifts of this kind in several largely discrete social-ecological systems can interact to cause a far larger intersystemic crisis, and how such a larger crisis can then rapidly propagate across multiple system boundaries to the global scale. Case studies of the 2008-2009 financial-energy and food-energy crises illustrate the framework. Suggestions are offered for future research to explore further the framework's propositions.

/pdf/synchronous-failure-the-emerging-causal-architecture-of-4dq4t9jhjd.pdf

Synchronous failure: the emerging causal architecture of global crisis

The empirical status of Tom Tyler’s (1990) process-based model of regulation is frustrated by the fact that most studies are conducted in the US, leaving open the question of whether similar effects can be observed in countries with different historical and political contexts. The current study tests two process-based model hypotheses using cross-sectional survey data from 683 young adults in Slovenia. The results reveal: (1) procedural justice judgments significantly shape individual perceptions of police legitimacy, and (2) perceived police legitimacy explains self-reported compliance with the law. Though slightly diminished in magnitude, the legitimacy effect persists when using an instrumental variable to address possible endogeneity bias and after statistically controlling for known correlates of law violating behavior (i.e., personal morality and low self-control). The findings also show that the legitimacy effect on compliance with different laws (e.g., littering and buying stolen property) varies depending on the operationalization of legitimacy (i.e., additive scale versus instrumental variable). While the findings indicate that the process-based model of regulation is germane to post-socialist countries such as Slovenia, more research focusing on the explanatory breadth of the model is necessary.

Compliance with the Law in Slovenia: The Role of Procedural Justice and Police Legitimacy

This note presents the background to and current progress in a project undertaken by the Council of Europe to develop a European sourcebook on crime and criminal justice statistics. First results from the work in progress are included, highlighting the difficulties of such comparative studies and the need to match statistical data with background definitional information.

/pdf/the-european-sourcebook-on-crime-and-criminal-justice-22qa7i2ewr.pdf

The European Sourcebook on Crime and Criminal Justice Statistics

Policing in Central and Eastern Europe

The relationship between the public and private sectors in Slovenia - from coexistence towards partnership?

Introduction: Historical Background, Developments, and Challenges of Policing in Central and Eastern Europe.- Country Studies: Policing in Austria, Policing in Bosnia & Herzegovina, Policing in Croatia, Policing in Czech Republic, Policing in Estonia, Policing in Macedonia, Policing in Germany, Policing in Hungary, Policing in Kosovo, Policing in Montenegro, Policing in Russia, Policing in Serbia, Policing in the Slovak Republic, Policing in Slovenia, Policing in the Republic of Srpska.- Conclusion: Trends and Areas for Further Research.

Handbook on policing in Central and Eastern Europe

This article presents a study on urban security management in the capitals of the former Yugoslav republics (FYR): Ljubljana (Slovenia), Zagreb (Croatia), Sarajevo (Bosnia and Herzegovina), Belgrad...

Urban security management in the capitals of the former Yugoslav republics

All contemporary societies are facing environmental crime as one among many modern threats to the environment and human / animal life and this is due to the unlimited exploitation of natural resources and pollution. The aim of the present paper is to describe different responses to environmental crime and the development of green criminology in South Eastern Europe. In this region environmental crime occurs under the influence of social conditions and circumstances in which the environment is used as a source of resources for survival, as well as economic factors which mean the environment is used as a resource for profit. For countries in South Eastern Europe it is typical that environmental criminals change their modus operandi and adapt to new socio-economic circumstances, use different loopholes in legislation and exploit gaps in infrastructure and enforcement leading to committing environmental offences without being processed and punished. In many countries of South Eastern Europe green criminology is still in its nascent stages but is focusing on similar obstacles and challenges to those identified elsewhere, such as multi-disciplinarity, cooperation with the natural sciences, and responding to particularities in the region, such as pollution of marine and coastal ecosystems, hunting tourism, and organized crimes such as timber logging.

Andrej Sotlar

Papers

Policing in Central and Eastern Europe

The relationship between the public and private sectors in Slovenia - from coexistence towards partnership?

Handbook on policing in Central and Eastern Europe

Urban security management in the capitals of the former Yugoslav republics

Environmental crime and green criminology in South Eastern Europe—practice and research