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Logistic Regression A Self Learning Text

This chapter surveys the role of the IEA as a key component of the international energy security system. First, it gives an overview of the nature of the energy security challenges and the key governance regimes that have been set up historically to manage these challenges, including the IEA. Then, it elaborates on the specific roles taken up by the IEA in global energy governance, particularly in light of the dramatic changes that characterize the global energy security system. Finally, it gives a comparative overview of the three oil market interventions that the IEA has so far coordinated, before presenting the conclusions.

The international energy agency

Smoothing Forecasting And Prediction Of Discrete Time Series

Application and performance of machine learning techniques in manufacturing sector from the past two decades: A review

Increasing the market share of low-emission vehicles in relation to individual mobility is one of the main postulates of modern transport policy. In the discussion on low-emission and the new structure of the car fleet, the role of new vehicles is emphasized above all, ignoring the importance of the secondary market. In recent years, both in Poland and in other European Union countries, there has been a noticeable dynamic development of electromobility implementation processes in urban areas, the initial effect of which is increasing market accessibility to commercial vehicles with electric EV/BEV, hybrid HEV/PHEV and fuel cell powered FCEV. As in the case of vehicles powered by conventional ICEV fuels, also in relation to those defined as low-emission, their residual value is lost along with the operational process. Information on this variable is important both for the owner of a newly purchased vehicle, which after the period of its operation will decide to sell it as well as to the future buyer. The scientific aim of the study is to analyze the residual values of selected vehicle models from the primary and secondary market, with particular emphasis on stochastic operational phenomena. The subject of the research is to obtain extensive knowledge on the achieved changes in the residual values of low-emission vehicles in relation to ICEVs. For this purpose, a comparative analysis of the commercial program, data approximated from auction portals and own numerical modeling tool based on a neural network was performed. The research sample included, among others, selected models of passenger cars, the purchase offer of which included the choice of a drive unit powered by conventional and low-emission fuels. The use of this method allowed to answer the question whether low-emission vehicles are characterized by a greater or lesser loss of value in relation to conventionally powered vehicles ICEV.

A Method of Analyzing the Residual Values of Low-Emission Vehicles Based on a Selected Expert Method Taking into Account Stochastic Operational Parameters

http://www.ein.org.pl/sites/default/files/2019-01-01.pdf

Wear of brake system components in various operating conditions of vehicle inthe transport company

http://www.ein.org.pl/sites/default/files/2020-02-02.pdf

Application of the logistic regression for determining transition probability matrix of operating states in the transport systems

This article uses Markov and semi-Markov models as some of the most popular tools to estimate readiness and reliability. They allow to evaluate of both individual elements as well as entire systems—including production systems—as multi-state structures. To be able to distinguish states with varying degrees of technical readiness in complicated and complex objects (systems) allows to determine their individual impact on the tasks performed, as well as on the total reliability. The application of the Markov process requires, for the process dwell times in the individual states, to be random variables of exponential distribution and the fulfilling Markov’s property of the independence of these states. Omitting these assumptions may lead to erroneous results, which was the authors’ intention to show. The article presents a comparison of the results of the examination of the process of non-parametric distribution with an analysis in which its exponential form was (groundlessly) assumed. Significantly different results were obtained. The aim was to draw attention to the inconsistencies obtained and to the importance of a preliminary assessment of the data collected for examination. The diagnostics of the machine readiness operating in the studied production company was additionally performed. This allowed to evaluate its operational potential, especially in the context of solving process optimization problems.

Evaluation of Machinery Readiness Using Semi-Markov Processes

http://www.ein.org.pl/sites/default/files/2019-04-16.pdf

Forecasting the readiness of special vehicles using the semi-Markov model

Guarantee of the high level of tasks execution in enterprise is a proper organization of processes and provision of necessary resources for their implementation. Particularly important, especially from the distribution company point of view, is reliability of held transport means. It depends on rational fleet management, adherence to service intervals, proper their use, as well as even workload and avoidance of unnecessary mileage, which contributes to accelerated wear.
The analysis presented in this article showed that exploitation of transport means is also affected by factors not directly related to them, such as personnel decisions, which strongly determined the degree and manner of their use in the investigated company. Incompetent employees of the customer service department caused that there were generated unavoidable mileage, which could be avoided. They contributed not only to the increase of process costs, but also increased the degree of transport means consumption, unnecessarily reducing their efficiency and effectiveness.
In the study, Markov models were proposed in both discreet and continuous physical time. It concerned two stages of the process, before and after implementation of changes. An analysis of the process evolution over time was also made, calculating boundary probabilities. The obtained models not only allowed for a description of the analyzed system and prediction of selected logistic indicators, but also indicated the directions for possible improvements.

Anna Borucka

Papers

Wear of brake system components in various operating conditions of vehicle inthe transport company

Application of the logistic regression for determining transition probability matrix of operating states in the transport systems

Evaluation of Machinery Readiness Using Semi-Markov Processes

Forecasting the readiness of special vehicles using the semi-Markov model

Three-state markov model of using transport means