Showing papers by "Anthony Patt published in 2022"

A historical turning point? Early evidence on how the Russia-Ukraine war changes public support for clean energy policies

Abstract: Given the importance of oil and gas from Russia for many European countries, the invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces in 2022 could be a turning point for energy policy in Europe. A framing in line with the clean-energy transition, however, is not a given. Here, we present early evidence on how the war has changed public policy support for policies aiming at the phase-out of fossil fuels, and for policies supporting the phase-in of clean energy alternatives. Using a population survey in Switzerland, we evaluate the changing support for different policy proposals with varying information treatments. Overall, we find strong support for clean energy policies across much of the political spectrum. Nevertheless, an interpretation of the war's ramifications in line with strengthened climate policy is by no means a given, and public support needs to be translated into policy action.

Definitions and implications of climate-neutral aviation

Abstract: To meet ambitious climate targets, the aviation sector needs to neutralize CO2 emissions and reduce non-CO2 climatic effects. Despite being responsible for approximately two-thirds of aviation’s impacts on the climate, most of aviation non-CO2 species are currently excluded from climate mitigation efforts. Here we identify three plausible definitions of climate-neutral aviation that include non-CO2 forcing and assess their implications considering future demand uncertainty, technological innovation and CO2 removal. We demonstrate that simply neutralizing aviation’s CO2 emissions, if nothing is done to reduce non-CO2 forcing, causes up to 0.4 °C additional warming, thus compromising the 1.5 °C target. We further show that substantial rates of CO2 removal are needed to achieve climate-neutral aviation in scenarios with little mitigation, yet cleaner-flying technologies can drastically reduce them. Our work provides policymakers with consistent definitions of climate-neutral aviation and highlights the beneficial side effects of moving to aircraft types and fuels with lower indirect climate effects. Non-CO2 effects must be addressed for climate-neutral aviation but are currently ignored in international climate policies. The authors provide a framework with different definitions of climate neutrality, then show how technological and demand-side mitigation efforts can help to achieve these targets.

On the quality of emission reductions: observed effects of carbon pricing on investments, innovation, and operational shifts. A response to van den Bergh and Savin (2021)

Abstract: Abstract To meet the Paris Agreement targets, carbon emissions from the energy system must be eliminated by mid-century, implying vast investment and systemic change challenges ahead. In an article in WIREs Climate Change, we reviewed the empirical evidence for effects of carbon pricing systems on technological change towards full decarbonisation, finding weak or no effects. In response, van den Bergh and Savin (2021) criticised our review in an article in this journal, claiming that it is “unfair”, incomplete and flawed in various ways. Here, we respond to this critique by elaborating on the conceptual roots of our argumentation based on the importance of short-term emission reductions and longer-term technological change, and by expanding the review. This verifies our original findings: existing carbon pricing schemes have sometimes reduced emissions, mainly through switching to lower-carbon fossil fuels and efficiency increases, and have triggered weak innovation increases. There is no evidence that carbon pricing systems have triggered zero-carbon investments, and scarce but consistent evidence that they have not. Our findings highlight the importance of adapting and improving climate policy assessment metrics beyond short-term emissions by also assessing the quality of emission reductions and the progress of underlying technological change.

Wolves, Crows, Spiders, and People: A Qualitative Study Yielding a Three-Layer Framework for Understanding Human–Wildlife Relations

Abstract: Human dimensions research has proposed a multitude of variables impacting the viability of wildlife populations. Extant approaches to systematizing these variables have mostly focused on human relations to only one animal species or taxon and are largely descriptive, rather than explanatory. In this study, we provide a three-layer framework for understanding people’s responses to a variety of human–wildlife encounters. We conducted a comparative qualitative study, interviewing 20 stakeholders on one of three ecologically disparate model animals. Through thematic analysis, we identified person-specific, species-specific, and overarching factors whose interplay shapes people’s reactions to encounters with wildlife. The person-specific factors, individual people’s biographic backgrounds and life themes, fuel the polarization of stances towards wildlife. The species-specific factors, people’s mental images of wild animals, explain the particular character of different human–wildlife relations. The overarching factors, fundamental questions regarding the place of humans in nature or motivations of control over animal agents, stir the intensity inherent in human encounters with wildlife. This three-layer framework amends existing proposals by providing a cohesive system and an in-depth portrayal of shared and specific factors and processes in various human–wildlife relations and by elucidating their interaction in influencing people’s responses to encounters with wild animals.

From wasteland to oasis: Transformative effects of trees on farmland and livelihoods

Abstract: In face of today's alarming trend of resource degradation and reversal of poverty reduction, path‐breaking strategies are needed. However, there is limited evidence to inform the design of policies. We scrutinized an agricultural development program that follows a holistic approach and includes the cultivation of fruit trees, to tackle this natural resource degradation and human vulnerability nexus. Can it transform so‐called wastelands and lift marginalized smallholders out of poverty? The geographic rollout of the program produced a natural experiment that allowed for an evaluation design with treatment and control groups and a survey of 2000 households randomly sampled from 188,231 participants in four Indian states, covering geographically diverse areas. This is the first time that the livelihood impacts of such farming systems have been analyzed on such a large scale and over a 23‐year period. Our results show that degraded farmland can be transformed into green assets if poverty alleviation and environmental regeneration are tackled in a holistic manner. We find a clear and significant trend in the improvement of socio‐economic factors, including higher income and positive life changes, as well as ecological benefits. By assessing the potential of trees to reverse environmental degradation and alleviate chronic poverty, this study provides much‐needed evidence for the science‐policy dialog of development programs. This video (3 minutes) gives an impression of the context of the study (Video S1 ).