Showing papers by "Anthony T. Newall published in 2010"

Influenza-attributable mortality in Australians aged more than 50 years: a comparison of different modelling approaches

Abstract: This study aimed to compare systematically approaches to estimating influenza-attributable mortality in older Australians. Using monthly age-specific death data together with viral surveillance counts for influenza and respiratory syncytial virus, we explored two of the most frequently used methods of estimating excess influenza-attributable disease: Poisson and Serfling regression models. These approaches produced consistent age and temporal patterns in estimates of influenza-attributable mortality in older Australians but some variation in the magnitude of the disease burden. Of Australians aged >50 years, average annual estimated influenza-attributable deaths (all cause) ranged from 2314 to 3457 for the Serfling and Poisson regression models, respectively. The excess influenza-attributable disease burden was substantial under all approaches.

Cost-effectiveness of pharmaceutical-based pandemic influenza mitigation strategies.

Abstract: We used a hybrid transmission and economic model to evaluate the relative merits of stockpiling antiviral drugs and vaccine for pandemic influenza mitigation. In the absence of any intervention, our base-case assumptions generated a population clinical attack rate of 31.1%. For at least some parameter values, population prepandemic vaccination strategies were effective at containing an outbreak of pandemic influenza until the arrival of a matched vaccine. Because of the uncertain nature of many parameters, we used a probabilistic approach to determine the most cost-effective strategies. At a willingness to pay of >A$24,000 per life-year saved, more than half the simulations showed that a prepandemic vaccination program combined with antiviral treatment was cost-effective in Australia.