Using a Bayesian likelihood approach, we estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for the US economy using seven macro-economic time series. The model incorporates many types of real and nominal frictions and seven types of structural shocks. We show that this model is able to compete with Bayesian Vector Autoregression models in out-of-sample prediction. We investigate the relative empirical importance of the various frictions. Finally, using the estimated model we address a number of key issues in business cycle analysis: What are the sources of business cycle fluctuations? Can the model explain the cross-correlation between output and inflation? What are the effects of productivity on hours worked? What are the sources of the "Great Moderation"?

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Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach

We estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for the US economy. The model incorporates many types of real and nominal frictions: sticky nominal price and wage setting, habit formation in consumption, investment adjustment costs, variable capital utilisation and fixed costs in production. It also contains many types of shocks including productivity, labour supply, investment, preference, cost-push and monetary policy shocks. Using Bayesian estimation techniques, the relative importance of the various frictions and shocks in explaining the US business cycle are empirically investigated. We also show that this model is able to outperform standard VAR and BVAR models in out-of-sample prediction.

/pdf/shocks-and-frictions-in-us-business-cycles-a-bayesian-dsge-2gcs6kvruw.pdf

Shocks and frictions in US business cycles: A Bayesian DSGE approach

This paper argues that the textbook search and matching model cannot generate the observed business-cycle-frequency fluctuations in unemployment and job vacancies in response to shocks of a plausible magnitude. In the United States, the standard deviation of the vacancy-unemployment ratio is almost 20 times as large as the standard deviation of average labor productivity, while the search model predicts that the two variables should have nearly the same volatility. A shock that changes average labor productivity primarily alters the present value of wages, generating only a small movement along a downward-sloping Beveridge curve (unemploymentvacancy locus). A shock to the separation rate generates a counterfactually positive correlation between unemployment and vacancies. In both cases, the model exhibits virtually no propagation. (JEL E24, E32, J41, J63, J64)

/pdf/the-cyclical-behavior-of-equilibrium-unemployment-and-17ieb2nfw9.pdf

The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies

Most central banks perceive a trade-off between stabilizing inflation and stabilizing the gap between output and desired output. However, the standard new Keynesian framework implies no such trade-off. In that framework, stabilizing inflation is equivalent to stabilizing the welfare-relevant output gap. In this paper, we argue that this property of the new Keynesian framework, which we call the divine coincidence, is due to a special feature of the model: the absence of non-trivial real imperfections. We focus on one such real imperfection, namely, real wage rigidities. When the baseline new Keynesian model is extended to allow for real wage rigidities, the divine coincidence disappears, and central banks indeed face a trade-off between stabilizing inflation and stabilizing the welfare-relevant output gap. We show that not only does the extended model have more realistic normative implications, but it also has appealing positive properties. In particular, it provides a natural interpretation for the dynamic inflation-unemployment relation found in the data.

/pdf/real-wage-rigidities-and-the-new-keynesian-model-zj6s1oewfu.pdf

Real Wage Rigidities and the New Keynesian Model

This essay briefly reviews the state of knowledge about the government spending multiplier. Drawing on theoretical work, aggregate empirical estimates from the United States, as well as cross-locality estimates, I assess the likely range of multiplier values for the experiment most relevant to the stimulus package debate: a temporary, deficit-financed increase in government purchases. I conclude that the multiplier for this type of spending is probably between 0.8 and 1.5. ( JEL E23, E62, H50)

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Can Government Purchases Stimulate the Economy

A number of authors have recently emphasized that the conventional model of unemployment dynamics due to Mortensen and Pissarides has difficulty accounting for the relatively volatile behavior of labor market activity over the business cycle. We address this issue by modifying the MP framework to allow for staggered multiperiod wage contracting. What emerges is a tractable relation for wage dynamics that is a natural generalization of the period-by-period Nash bargaining outcome in the conventional formulation. An interesting side-product is the emergence of spillover effects of average wages on the bargaining process. We then show that a reasonable calibration of the model can account well for the cyclical behavior of wages and labor market activity observed in the data. The spillover effects turn out to be important in this respect.

/pdf/unemployment-fluctuations-with-staggered-nash-wage-1lcs2rp686.pdf

Unemployment fluctuations with staggered nash wage bargaining

We develop and estimate a medium scale macroeconomic model that allows for unemployment and staggered nominal wage contracting. In contrast to most existing quantitative models, employment adjustment is on the extensive margain and the employment of existing workers is efficient. Wage rigidity, however, affects the hiring of new workers. The former is introduced via the staggered Nash bargaing setup of Gertler and Trigari (2006). A robust finding is that the model with wage rigidity provides a better description of the data than does a flexible wage version. Overall, the model fits the data roughly as well as existing quantitative macroeconomic models, such as Smets and Wouters (2007) or Christiano, Eichenbaum and Evans (2005). More work is necessary, however, to ensure a robust identification of the key labor market parameters.

An Estimated Monetary DSGE Model with Unemployment and Staggered Nominal Wage Bargaining

We develop and estimate a medium scale macroeconomic model that allows for unemployment and staggered nominal wage contracting. In contrast to most existing quantitative models, employment adjustment is on the extensive margin and the employment of existing workers is efficient. Wage rigidity, however, affects the hiring of new workers. The former is introduced via the staggered Nash bargaining setup of Gertler and Trigari (2006). A robust finding is that the model with wage rigidity provides a better description of the data than does a flexible wage version. Overall, the model fits the data roughly as well as existing quantitative macroeconomic models, such as Smets and Wouters (2007) or Christiano, Eichenbaum, and Evans (2005). More work is necessary, however, to ensure a robust identification of the key labor market parameters.

/pdf/an-estimated-monetary-dsge-model-with-unemployment-and-10t9stckmy.pdf

In order to explain the joint fluctuations of output, inflation and the labor market, this paper first develops a general equilibrium model that integrates a theory of equilibrium unemployment into a monetary model with nominal price rigidities. Then, it estimates a set of structural parameters characterizing the dynamics of the labor market. The estimated model can explain the cyclical behavior of employment, hours per worker, job creation and job destruction conditional on a shock to monetary policy. Moreover, allowing for variation of the labor input at the extensive margin leads to a significantly lower elasticity of marginal costs with respect to output. This helps to explain the sluggishness of inflation and the persistence of output after a monetary policy shock. The ability of the model to account for the joint dynamics of output and inflation relies on its ability to explain the dynamics of the labor market.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID515066_code356495.pdf?abstractid=515066&mirid=1

Equilibrium Unemployment, Job Flows and Inflation Dynamics

This paper develops a general equilibrium model to explain a set of facts regarding job flows, unemployment and inflation dynamics. It integrates a theory of equilibrium unemployment into a monetary model with nominal price rigidities. The labor market displays matching frictions and endogenous job destruction. The model can explain the cyclical behavior of unemployment, job creation, job destruction and the joint fluctuations of the labor input along both the extensive and the intensive margin conditional on a shock to monetary policy. Allowing for variation of the labor input at the extensive margin leads to a significantly lower elasticity of marginal costs with respect to output. This helps to explain the sluggishness of inflation and the persistence of output after a monetary policy shock.

/pdf/equilibrium-unemployment-job-flows-and-inflation-dynamics-b0xyjwzpxy.pdf

Antonella Trigari

Papers

Unemployment fluctuations with staggered nash wage bargaining

An Estimated Monetary DSGE Model with Unemployment and Staggered Nominal Wage Bargaining

An Estimated Monetary DSGE Model with Unemployment and Staggered Nominal Wage Bargaining

Equilibrium Unemployment, Job Flows and Inflation Dynamics

Equilibrium Unemployment, Job Flows and Inflation Dynamics ∗