计量经济分析 = Econometric analysis

The paper investigates the impact of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) subsidies on farm total factor productivity (TFP) in the European Union (EU). We employ a structural semi-parametric estimation algorithm directly incorporating the effect of subsidies into a model of unobserved productivity. We empirically study the effects using the Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) samples for the EU-15 countries. Our main findings are clear: subsidies impact negatively on farm productivity in the period before the decoupling reform was implemented; after decoupling the effect of subsidies on productivity is more nuanced and in several countries it turned positive.

/pdf/cap-subsidies-and-productivity-of-the-eu-farms-3yekgbd5aa.pdf

CAP Subsidies and Productivity of the EU Farms

We investigate the effect of crop price and climate variables on rainfed corn and soybean yields and acreage in the United States using a large panel dataset for the 1977–2007 period. Instrumental variables are used to control for endogeneity of prices in yield and acreage regressions, while allowing for spatially auto-correlated errors. We find that an increase in corn price has a statistically significant positive impact on corn yield, but the effect of soybean price on soybean yields is not statistically significant. The estimated price elasticities of corn yield and acreage are 0.23 and 0.45, respectively. Of the increase in corn supply caused by an increase in corn price, we find that 33.8% is due to price-induced yield enhancement and 66.2% is due to price-induced acreage expansion. We also find that the impact of climate change on corn production ranges from $-$7% to $-$41% and on soybean ranges from $-$8% to $-$45%, depending on the climate change scenarios, time horizon, and global climate models used to predict climate change. We show that the aggregate net impact of omitting price variables is an overestimation of the effect of climate change on corn yield by up to 9% and on soybean yield by up to 15%.

/pdf/responsiveness-of-crop-yield-and-acreage-to-prices-and-4vt5o76h9o.pdf

Responsiveness of Crop Yield and Acreage to Prices and Climate

Economic reasoning and some empirical evidence suggest that government payments increase rents on agricultural lands to which the payments are attached (Barnard et al., Floyd, Gardner, Kuchler and Tegene). The degree to which this occurs—the incidence of current expected government payments on current rent—is relevant for policy in two ways. First, it provides information about the distribution of payment benefits vis-a-vis landowners and farmers. For example, if payment benefits are intended for farmers rather than landowners, and the incidence is high, a share of the benefits may miss their target.1 Because about 60% of U.S. farmland is owned by nonoperators, there is a real potential for this kind of misallocation (Hopkins, Morehart, and Bohman). Second, the level of incidence may reflect the degree to which government programs that give rise to these payments alter production. A high incidence may reflect a low supply response to a government program, because a small share of the payments is dissipated via lower output prices (due to greater quantities supplied) and higher prices for input factors besides land (due to greater quantities demanded). A low incidence may reflect a large supply response and a greater appropriation of payment benefits to commodity consumers and suppliers of other input factors, such as machinery and human capital. Thus, reliable

The Incidence of Government Program Payments on Agricultural Land Rents: The Challenges of Identification

This survey paper explores the literature on decoupling of farm programs that has emerged in the last 10 years. The paper identifies and assesses the various channels of potential coupling of decoupled farm payments and provides a taxonomy of coupling mechanisms found in theoretical and empirical papers. Coupling of decoupled payments is pervasive but effects when measurable are small, with the exception of the impact on land values. The paper points to unresolved issues on potential coupling mechanisms for further research.

How Coupled Are Decoupled Farm Payments? A Review of the Evidence

We analyze the coupling effect of expectations about base acreage and yield updating in future farm policy on production decisions in the presence of price, yield, and policy uncertainty for a risk-averse farmer producing a single crop. The farmer receives market revenue and government payments. Using stochastic dynamic programming, optimum decisions under present value calculations positively link current acreage and fertilizer decisions to future government payments through expected updates of base acreage and yield in the future regime. Moving from a zero probability of updating to a probability of one increases optimum acreage and yield by 6.25% and 0.134%, respectively. Copyright 2010, Oxford University Press.

/pdf/decoupled-farm-payments-and-the-role-of-base-acreage-and-2ac6djtwos.pdf

Decoupled Farm Payments and the Role of Base Acreage and Yield Updating Under Uncertainty

This survey paper explores the literature on decoupling of farm programs that has emerged in the last 10 years. The paper identifies and assesses the various channels of potential coupling of decoupled farm payments and provides taxonomy of coupling mechanisms found in theoretical and empirical papers. Coupling of decoupled payments is pervasive but effects when measurable are small, with the exception of the impact on land values. The paper points to unresolved issues on potential coupling mechanisms for further research.

/pdf/how-coupled-are-decoupled-farm-payments-a-review-of-coupling-18xm693akx.pdf

How coupled are decoupled farm payments? A review of coupling mechanisms and the evidence

In the context of the U.S farm policy, this paper analyzes the effect that expectations about base updating in future policies have on a farmer’s acreage decision in the presence of price, yield and policy uncertainty. We consider a risk neutral farmer producing a single crop whose income consists of market revenue and government payments. We consider two policy regimes. Decisions made in the current policy regime are linked to government payments in the future policy regime through the possibility of a base update in the future regime. There is policy uncertainty about the possibility of a base update being allowed in the future. We combine stochastic dynamic programming with present value calculations to link current acreage decisions to future program payments. The average optimal planted acreage is weakly increasing in the subjective probability of the future base update. The maximum percentage increase in the average optimal planted acreage is 6%.

https://lib.dr.iastate.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1224&context=econ_las_workingpapers

Decoupled Farm Payments and the Role of Base Updating Under Uncertainty

In the context of U.S. farm policy, this paper analyzes the effect that expectations about base acreage and yield updating in future policies have on a farmer's production decisions in the presence of price, yield and policy uncertainty. We consider a risk averse farmer producing a single crop whose income consists of market revenue and government payments. We consider two policy regimes. Decisions on acreage and fertilizer use made in the current policy regime are linked to government payments in the future policy regime through the possibility of a base acreage and yield update in the future regime. There is policy uncertainty about the possibility of the updates being allowed in the future. We combine stochastic dynamic programming with present value calculations to link current acreage and input use decisions to future program payments. The average optimal planted acreage and fertilizer use are increasing in the subjective probability of the future update. The estimated maximum percentage increase in the average optimal planted acreage is 6.25%. The estimated maximum percentage increase in the average yield, resulting from optimal fertilizer use is much smaller at 0.134%.

/pdf/decoupled-farm-payments-and-the-role-of-base-acreage-and-4do0rzwjmz.pdf

Arathi Bhaskar

Papers

How Coupled Are Decoupled Farm Payments? A Review of the Evidence

Decoupled Farm Payments and the Role of Base Acreage and Yield Updating Under Uncertainty

How coupled are decoupled farm payments? A review of coupling mechanisms and the evidence

Decoupled Farm Payments and the Role of Base Updating Under Uncertainty

Decoupled Farm Payments and the Role of Base Acreage and Yield Updating under Uncertainty