Settlements in coastal lowlands are especially vulnerable to risks resulting from climate change, yet these lowlands are densely settled and growing rapidly. In this paper, we undertake the fi rst global review of the population and urban settlement patterns in the Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ), defi ned here as the contiguous area along the coast that is less than 10 metres above sea level. Overall, this zone covers 2 per cent of the world's land area but contains 10 per cent of the world's population and 13 per cent of the world's urban population. A dis- proportionate number of the countries with a large share of their population in this zone are small island countries, but most of the countries with large populations in the zone are large countries with heavily populated delta regions. On average, the Least Developed Countries have a higher share of their population living in the zone (14 per cent) than do OECD countries (10 per cent), with even greater disparities in the urban shares (21 per cent compared to 11 per cent). Almost two- thirds of urban settlements with populations greater than 5 million fall, at least partly, in the zone. In some countries (most notably China), urbanization is driving a movement in population towards the coast. Reducing the risk of disasters related to climate change in coastal settlements will require a combination of mitigation, migration and settlement modifi cation.

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0956247807076960

The rising tide: assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones:

Anthropogenic global warming has significantly influenced physical and biological processes at global and regional scales. The observed and anticipated changes in global climate present significant opportunities and challenges for societies and economies. We compare the vulnerability of 132 national economies to potential climate change impacts on their capture fisheries using an indicator-based approach. Countries in Central and Western Africa (e.g. Malawi, Guinea, Senegal, and Uganda), Peru and Colombia in north-western South America, and four tropical Asian countries (Bangladesh, Cambodia, Pakistan, and Yemen) were identified as most vulnerable. This vulnerability was due to the combined effect of predicted warming, the relative importance of fisheries to national economies and diets, and limited societal capacity to adapt to potential impacts and opportunities. Many vulnerable countries were also among the world’s least developed countries whose inhabitants are among the world’s poorest and twice as reliant on fish, which provides 27% of dietary protein compared to 13% in less vulnerable countries. These countries also produce 20% of the world’s fish exports and are in greatest need of adaptation planning to maintain or enhance the contribution that fisheries can make to poverty reduction. Although the precise impacts and direction of climate-driven change for particular fish stocks and fisheries are uncertain, our analysis suggests they are likely to lead to either increased economic hardship or missed opportunities for development in countries that depend upon fisheries but lack the capacity to adapt.

/pdf/vulnerability-of-national-economies-to-the-impacts-of-1dogy4xth3.pdf

Vulnerability of national economies to the impacts of climate change on fisheries

During the past four decades (1960–2000), the United States experienced major transformations in population size, development patterns, economic conditions, and social characteristics. These social, economic, and built-environment changes altered the American hazardscape in profound ways, with more people living in high-hazard areas than ever before. To improve emergency management, it is important to recognize the variability in the vulnerable populations exposed to hazards and to develop place-based emergency plans accordingly. The concept of social vulnerability identifies sensitive populations that may be less likely to respond to, cope with, and recover from a natural disaster. Social vulnerability is complex and dynamic, changing over space and through time. This paper presents empirical evidence on the spatial and temporal patterns in social vulnerability in the United States from 1960 to the present. Using counties as our study unit, we found that those components that consistently increased social vulnerability for all time periods were density (urban), race/ethnicity, and socioeconomic status. The spatial patterning of social vulnerability, although initially concentrated in certain geographic regions, has become more dispersed over time. The national trend shows a steady reduction in social vulnerability, but there is considerable regional variability, with many counties increasing in social vulnerability during the past five decades.

/pdf/temporal-and-spatial-changes-in-social-vulnerability-to-3ioay1stp9.pdf

Temporal and spatial changes in social vulnerability to natural hazards

. Damage assessments of natural hazards supply crucial information to decision support and policy development in the fields of natural hazard management and adaptation planning to climate change. Specifically, the estimation of economic flood damage is gaining greater importance as flood risk management is becoming the dominant approach of flood control policies throughout Europe. This paper reviews the state-of-the-art and identifies research directions of economic flood damage assessment. Despite the fact that considerable research effort has been spent and progress has been made on damage data collection, data analysis and model development in recent years, there still seems to be a mismatch between the relevance of damage assessments and the quality of the available models and datasets. Often, simple approaches are used, mainly due to limitations in available data and knowledge on damage mechanisms. The results of damage assessments depend on many assumptions, e.g. the selection of spatial and temporal boundaries, and there are many pitfalls in economic evaluation, e.g. the choice between replacement costs or depreciated values. Much larger efforts are required for empirical and synthetic data collection and for providing consistent, reliable data to scientists and practitioners. A major shortcoming of damage modelling is that model validation is scarcely performed. Uncertainty analyses and thorough scrutiny of model inputs and assumptions should be mandatory for each damage model development and application, respectively. In our view, flood risk assessments are often not well balanced. Much more attention is given to the hazard assessment part, whereas damage assessment is treated as some kind of appendix within the risk analysis. Advances in flood damage assessment could trigger subsequent methodological improvements in other natural hazard areas with comparable time-space properties.

/pdf/review-article-assessment-of-economic-flood-damage-2cxqtnpv6j.pdf

Review article "Assessment of economic flood damage"

In this study, we consider facility location decisions for a humanitarian relief chain responding to quick-onset disasters. In particular, we develop a model that determines the number and locations of distribution centres in a relief network and the amount of relief supplies to be stocked at each distribution centre to meet the needs of people affected by the disasters. Our model, which is a variant of the maximal covering location model, integrates facility location and inventory decisions, considers multiple item types, and captures budgetary constraints and capacity restrictions. We conduct computational experiments to illustrate how the proposed model works on a realistic problem. Results show the effects of pre- and post-disaster relief funding on relief system's performance, specifically on response time and the proportion of demand satisfied. Finally, we discuss the managerial implications of the proposed model.

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/13675560701561789

Facility location in humanitarian relief

Earthquakes, floods, drought, and other natural hazards cause tens of thousands of deaths, hundreds of thousands of injuries, and billions of dollars in economic losses each year around the world Many billions of dollars in humanitarian assistance, emergency loans, and development aid are expended annually Yet efforts to reduce the risks of natural hazards remain largely uncoordinated across different hazard types and do not necessarily focus on areas at highest risk of disaster Natural Disaster Hotspots presents a global view of major natural disaster risk hotspots - areas at relatively high risk of loss from one or more natural hazards It summarizes the results of an interdisciplinary analysis of the location and characteristics of hotspots for six natural hazards - earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides, floods, drought, and cyclones Data on these hazards are combined with state-of-the-art data on the sub-national distribution of population and economic output and past disaster losses to identify areas at relatively high risk from one or more hazards

Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis

Earthquakes, floods, drought, and other natural hazards cause tens of thousands of deaths, hundreds of thousands of injuries, and billions of dollars in economic losses each year around the world. Many billions of dollars in humanitarian assistance, emergency loans, and development aid are expended annually. Yet efforts to reduce the risks of natural hazards remain largely uncoordinated across different hazard types and do not necessarily focus on areas at highest risk of disaster. Natural Disaster Hotspots presents a global view of major natural disaster risk hotspots - areas at relatively high risk of loss from one or more natural hazards. It summarizes the results of an interdisciplinary analysis of the location and characteristics of hotspots for six natural hazards - earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides, floods, drought, and cyclones. Data on these hazards are combined with state-of-the-art data on the sub-national distribution of population and economic output and past disaster losses to identify areas at relatively high risk from one or more hazards.

These case studies complement the earlier groundbreaking work of Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis published in April 2005. Three case studies address specific hazards: landslides, storm surges and drought. An additional, three case studies address regional multi-hazard situations in Sri Lanka, the Tana River basin in Kenya, and the city of Caracas, Venezuela.

Arthur L. Lerner-Lam

Papers

Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis

Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis

Natural Disaster Hotspots: Case Studies