Showing papers by "Arun Kumar published in 1999"

Risk analysis of traffic and revenue forecasts for road investment projects. discussions and closure

Abstract: Two discussions of a paper with the aforementioned title by W.H.K. Lam and M.L. Tam, published in this journal (Volume 4, Number 1, March 1998), are presented. The first discusser maintains that the tolerance of convergence should be indicated and questions the breakdown of vehicle types in the paper's analysis. The remaining four discussers are of the opinion that a simple regression model could be formulated where the internal rate of return (IRR) is given in terms of critical random variables such as traffic volume at commencement, traffic growth rate, estimated project cost, and toll growth rate. They maintain that the random variables could then be defined in terms of their expected value and their ranges and that the probabilistic analysis of the IRR could be performed analytically.