世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

In Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson, henceforth AJR, (2001), we advanced the hypothesis that the mortality rates faced by Europeans in different parts of the world after 1500 affected their willingness to establish settlements and choice of colonization strategy. Places that were relatively healthy (for Europeans) were—when they fell under European control—more likely to receive better economic and political institutions. In contrast, places where European settlers were less likely to go were more likely to have “extractive” institutions imposed. We also posited that this early pattern of institutions has persisted over time and influences the extent and nature of institutions in the modern world. On this basis, we proposed using estimates of potential European settler mortality as an instrument for institutional variation in former European colonies today. Data on settlers themselves are unfortunately patchy—particularly because not many went to places they believed, with good reason, to be most unhealthy. We therefore followed the lead of Curtin (1989 and 1998) who compiled data on the death rates faced by European soldiers in various overseas postings. 1 Curtin’s data were based on pathbreaking data collection and statistical work initiated by the British military in the mid-nineteenth century. These data became part of the foundation of both contemporary thinking about public health (for soldiers and for civilians) and the life insurance industry (as actuaries and executives considered the

/pdf/the-colonial-origins-of-comparative-development-an-empirical-4a7vtfps9i.pdf

The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation

https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/shleifer/files/ip_corpgov.pdf

Investor Protection and Corporate Governance

The author argues that the preponderance of theoretical reasoning and empirical evidence suggests a positive first order relationship between financial development and economic growth. There is evidence that the financial development level is a good predictor of future rates of economic growth, capital accumulation, and technological change. Moreover, cross-country, case-style, industry level and firm-level analysis document extensive periods when financial development crucially affects the speed and pattern of economic development. The author explains what the financial system does and how it affects, and is affected by, economic growth. Theory suggests that financial instruments, markets and institutions arise to mitigate the effects of information and transaction costs. A growing literature shows that differences in how well financial systems reduce information and transaction costs influence savings rates, investment decisions, technological innovation, and long-run growth rates. A less developed theoretical literature shows how changes in economic activity can influence financial systems. The author advocates a functional approach to understanding the role of financial systems in economic growth. This approach focuses on the ties between growth and the quality of the functions provided by the financial systems. The author discourages a narrow focus on one financial instrument, or a particular institution. Instead, the author addresses the more comprehensive question: What is the relationship between financial structure and the functioning of the financial system?

/pdf/financial-development-and-economic-growth-views-and-agenda-1isr9l81uu.pdf

Financial development and economic growth : views and agenda

1. Introduction and Overview. 2. Detecting Influential Observations and Outliers. 3. Detecting and Assessing Collinearity. 4. Applications and Remedies. 5. Research Issues and Directions for Extensions. Bibliography. Author Index. Subject Index.

Regression Diagnostics: Identifying Influential Data and Sources of Collinearity

The authors investigate the impact of the menu approach to debt rescheduling on the market value of two major creditors: US and Japanese banks They try to understand how major creditor banks are affected by debt reschedulings and the menu choices they make, so that debt deals can be structured in a way that appeals to both creditors and debtor countries They measure the stock market's reaction to the announcement of the Brady Plan and the Mexican debt reduction agreement The Brady Plan was implemented through the menu approach, which acknowledges creditor heterogeneity and provides financing packages that meet the country's financing requirements while still allowing the banks to reduce their exposure The Mexican agreement provides an opportunity to test the impact of the Brady Plan's implementation By examining individual bank's menu choices, exposure levels, and the market's reaction, they explore whether banks were able to make optimal portfolio choices when confronted with the obligation to participate They show that stock prices for different groups of banks reacted quite differently to focal events Among all banks, US multinationals showed the strongest positive reaction to the Brady announcement and the Mexican agreement US non-multinationals do not appear to have been significantly affected by these international-debt-related events The reaction experienced by all Japanese banks was much weaker than that of US multinationals and was negative for the Brady announcement and the initial Mexico announcement The authors contend that the lack of a strong reaction was because of the Japanese banks'relatively low exposure to developing country risk They see the negative market reaction as a reflection of the expectation that a US-initiated debt reduction strategy would not be favorable for Japanese banks Indeed, after the menu choices were announced, the market recognized that the Japanese banks were treated fairly and corrected itself They do not find that banks that made different choices were treated differently by the market, so banks were able to negotiate menu choices in their best interest and to make portfolio choices consistent with their business objectives The results here confirm that the menu approach to debt restructuring may benefit both the creditor banks and the debtor countries

The Brady Plan, the 1989 Mexican debt reduction agreement, and bank stock returns in the United States and Japan

There is a divergence in the returns of top-performing firms and the rest of the economy, especially in industries that rely on a skilled labor force, raising concerns about their market power. This paper shows that the divergence is explained by the mismeasurement of intangible capital. Compared with other firms, star firms produce more per dollar of invested capital, have higher growth, innovation, and productivity and are not differentially affected by exogenous competitive shocks. Their pricing power supports their high intangible capital investment. Some exceptional firms may pose concerns due to their potential to foreclose competition in the future.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID3944271_code55964.pdf?abstractid=3230154&mirid=1

The Rise of Star Firms : Intangible Capital and Competition

The author develops an empirical model to value a financial institution's capital for regulatory purposes, which when estimated for a sample of failed and nonfailed institutions, reveals the need for a market-value accounting approach to capital.

https://www.clevelandfed.org/~/media/content/newsroom and events/publications/working papers/1991/wp 9104 on the valuation of deposit institutions pdf.pdf

On the Valuation of Deposit Institutions

Ever since the debt crisis of 1982, commercial banks continue to be reluctant in lending to developing countries. It is often argued that regulatory pressures on commercial banks have also contributed to the banks' reduced exposure to developing countries. This paper explores this possibility, focusing particularly on the effect of the Bank for International Settlement (BIS) risk-related capital adequacy regulations and different practices of country risk provisioning in major creditor countries. The main conclusion of the paper is that the BIS capital adequacy regulations may be somewhat less effective than they appear in accomplishing their main goal of controlling the overall riskiness of the international banking system, but that they may be quite effective in decreasing the size of commercial banks' developing country loan portfolios. The paper also discusses how mandated provisioning rules against developing countries are an additional deterrent to increasing bank lending.

Creditor country regulations and commercial bank lending to developing countries

Un ensemble influent de recherches theoriques et un nouveau courant de travaux empiriques suggerent que le fonctionnement du systeme financier formel affecte le niveau auquel les opportunites economiques sont determinees par le talent et l’initiative plutot que par la richesse parentale et les connexions sociales. Par consequent, davantage de recherches sont necessaires pour identifier quelles politiques du secteur financier formel renforcent le fonctionnement du systeme financier de facon a elargir les horizons economiques de ceux qui sont economiquement exclus.

Asli Demirguc-Kunt

Papers

The Brady Plan, the 1989 Mexican debt reduction agreement, and bank stock returns in the United States and Japan

The Rise of Star Firms : Intangible Capital and Competition

On the Valuation of Deposit Institutions

Creditor country regulations and commercial bank lending to developing countries

Finance et opportunité économique