A review of drought concepts

Though drought is a recurrent phenomenon in Bangladesh, very little attention has been so far paid to the mitigation and preparedness of droughts. This article presents a method for spatial assessment of drought risk in Bangladesh. A conceptual framework, which emphasizes the combined role of hazard and vulnerability in defining risk, is used for the study. Standardized precipitation index method in a GIS environment is used to map the spatial extents of drought hazards in different time steps. The key social and physical factors that define drought vulnerability in the context of Bangladesh are identified and corresponding thematic maps in district level are prepared. Composite drought vulnerability map is developed through the integration of those thematic maps. The risk is computed as the product of the hazard and vulnerability. The result shows that droughts pose highest risk to the northern and northwestern districts of Bangladesh.

Drought risk assessment in the western part of Bangladesh

The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is now widely used throughout the world in both a research and an operational mode. For arid climates, or those with a distinct dry season where zero values are common, the SPI at short time scales is lower bounded, referring to non-normally distributed in this study. In these cases, the SPI is always greater than a certain value and fails to indicate a drought occurrence. The nationwide statistics based on our study suggest that the non-normality rates are closely related to local precipitation climates. In the eastern United States, SPI values at short time scales can be used in drought/flood monitoring and research in any season, while in the western United States, because of its distinct seasonal precipitation distribution, the appropriate usage and interpretation of this index becomes complicated. This would also be the case for all arid climates. From a mathematical point of view, the non-normally distributed SPI is caused by a high probability of no-rain cases represented in the mixed distribution that is employed in the SPI construction. From a statistical point of view, the 2-parameter gamma model used to estimate the precipitation probability density function and the limited sample size in dry areas and times would also reduce the confidence of the SPI values.



On the basis of the results identified within this study, we recommend that the SPI user be cautious when applying short-time-scale SPIs in arid climatic regimes, and interpret the SPI values appropriately. In dry climates, the user should focus on the duration of the drought rather than on just its severity. It is also worth noting that the SPI results from a statistical product of the input data. This character makes it difficult to link the SPI data to the physical functioning of the Earth system. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society.

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Appropriate application of the standardized precipitation index in arid locations and dry seasons

Drought has become a recurrent phenomenon in Turkey in the last few decades. Significant drought conditions were observed during years of late 1980s and the trend continued in the late 1990s. The country’s agricultural sector and water resources have been under severe constraints from the recurrent droughts. In this study, spatial and temporal dimensions of meteorological droughts in Turkey have been investigated from vulnerability concept. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) method was used to detail geographical variations in the drought vulnerability based on frequency and severity of drought events at multiple time steps. Critical (threshold) rainfall values were derived for each station at multiple-time steps in varying drought categories to determine least amount of rainfall required to avoid from drought initiation. The study found that drought vulnerability portrays a very diverse but consistent picture with varying time steps. At regional scale, south-eastern and eastern Anatolia are characterized with moderate droughts at shorter time steps, while the occurrence of severe droughts at shorter time steps is observed at non-coastal parts of the country. A similar picture was observed with very severe droughts. The critical (threshold) values exhibited rising numbers during the growing season at 3-month step in the South-eastern Anatolia, which might have significant consequences considering presence of large irrigation projects under-development in the region. In general, rainfall amounts required for non-drought conditions decrease from the coastal parts toward the interiors with increasing time steps.

An Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Dimension of Drought Vulnerability in Turkey Using the Standardized Precipitation Index

Predicting the impacts of climate change—A case study of paddy irrigation water requirements in Sri Lanka

This paper presents probable effects of climate change on soil moisture availability in the Southeast Anatolia Development Project (GAP) region of Turkey. A series of hypothetical climate change scenarios and GCM-generated IPCC Business-as-Usual scenario estimates of temperature and precipitation changes were used to examine implications of climate change for seasonal changes in actual evapotranspiration, soil moisture deficit, and soil moisture surplus in 13 subregions of the GAP. Of particular importance are predicted patterns of enhancement in summer soil moisture deficit that are consistent across the region in all scenarios. Least effect of the projected warming on the soil moisture deficit enhancement is observed with the IPCC estimates. The projected temperature changes would be responsible for a great portion of the enhancement in summer deficits in the GAP region. The increase in precipitation had less effect on depletion rate of soil moisture when the temperatures increase. Particularly southern and southeastern parts of the region will suffer severe moisture shortages during summer. Winter surplus decreased in scenarios with increased temperature and decreased precipitation in most cases. Even when precipitation was not changed, total annual surplus decreased by 4 percent to 43 percent for a 2°C warming and by 8 percent to 91 percent for a 4°C warming. These hydrologic results may have significant implications for water availability in the GAP as the present project evaluations lack climate change analysis. Adaptation strategies – such as changes in crop varieties, applying more advanced dry farming methods, improved water management, developing more efficient irrigation systems, and changes in planting – will be important in limiting adverse effects and taking advantage of beneficial changes in climate.

Possible impacts of climate change on soil moisture availability in the southeast anatolia development project region (GAP) : An analysis from an agricultural drought perspective

Flash floods associated with heavy precipitation has become a hazardous phenomenon along the Mediterranean coasts of Turkey in recent years. During 3 and 4 November 1995 heavy and intense rainstorm activity over the Aegean coast led to flash flooding in the city of Izmir. Damage exceeded $50 million and 61 people died as a result of the flood. The Karsiyaka district suffered the most severe damage. This study presents an analysis of the meteorological settings that led to the development of these intense storms and describes the role of the terrain features involved in the Izmir flood. The important mesoscale features which initiated the severe weather outbreak included pronounced low-level advection, positive vorticity and strong upper level divergence. A surface low centered over the Aegean Sea enhanced the advection of warm and moist unstable air masses coming from the southwest over the Mediterranean Sea along a southwesterly low level jet (LLJ). A squall line oriented NE-SW over the Aegean Sea also contributed to the storm development, and intensity of the storms was further enhanced by the orographic effect. The presence of a frontal system, the stability indices associated with the event, and other meteorological features are all reminiscent of the synoptic type flash floods identified by Maddox. While the pressure and moisture patterns were favorable for severe storm activity, nonmeteorological factors including the topography, geomporphology, and and land-use contributed to the flooding to a great extent. Settling in the flood-prone zone, insufficient floodwater structures, and the lack of channel improvements in the creeks enhanced flood damage to the city. Many of the deaths occurred in the settlements located in the flood-prone zone of the Ilica and Dallik creeks. Language: en

Analysis of Meteorological and Terrain Features Leading to the Izmir Flash Flood, 3–4 November 1995

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Ayhan Erkan

Papers

An Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Dimension of Drought Vulnerability in Turkey Using the Standardized Precipitation Index

Possible impacts of climate change on soil moisture availability in the southeast anatolia development project region (GAP) : An analysis from an agricultural drought perspective

Analysis of Meteorological and Terrain Features Leading to the Izmir Flash Flood, 3–4 November 1995

A new insight into drought vulnerability in turkey using the standard precipitation index