Studies from a variety of disciplines documentrecentchange in the northern high-latitude environment.Prompted by predictions of an amplified response oftheArctic to enhanced greenhouse forcing, we present asynthesis of these observations. Pronounced winter andspring warming over northern continents since about 1970ispartly compensated by cooling over the northern NorthAtlantic. Warming is also evident over the centralArcticOcean. There is a downward tendency in sea ice extent,attended by warming and increased areal extent of theArctic Ocean's Atlantic layer. Negative snow coveranomalies have dominated over both continents sincethelate 1980s and terrestrial precipitation has increasedsince 1900. Small Arctic glaciers have exhibitedgenerally negative mass balances. While permafrost haswarmed in Alaska and Russia, it has cooled in easternCanada. There is evidence of increased plant growth,attended by greater shrub abundance and northwardmigration of the tree line. Evidence also suggeststhatthe tundra has changed from a net sink to a net sourceofatmospheric carbon dioxide.Taken together, these results paint a reasonablycoherent picture of change, but their interpretationassignals of enhanced greenhouse warming is open todebate.Many of the environmental records are either short,areof uncertain quality, or provide limited spatialcoverage. The recent high-latitude warming is also nolarger than the interdecadal temperature range duringthis century. Nevertheless, the general patterns ofchange broadly agree with model predictions. Roughlyhalfof the pronounced recent rise in Northern Hemispherewinter temperatures reflects shifts in atmosphericcirculation. However, such changes are notinconsistentwith anthropogenic forcing and include generallypositive phases of the North Atlantic and ArcticOscillations and extratropical responses to theEl-NinoSouthern Oscillation. An anthropogenic effect is alsosuggested from interpretation of the paleoclimaterecord,which indicates that the 20th century Arctic is thewarmest of the past 400 years.

/pdf/observational-evidence-of-recent-change-in-the-northern-high-30d1vjk72n.pdf

Observational evidence of recent change in the northern high-latitude environment

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is one of the most prominent and recurrent patterns of atmospheric circulation variability. It dictates climate variability from the eastern seaboard of the United States to Siberia and from the Arctic to the subtropical Atlantic, especially during boreal winter, so variations in the NAO are important to society and for the environment. Understanding the processes that govern this variability is, therefore, of high priority, especially in the context of global climate change. This review, aimed at a scientifically diverse audience, provides general background material for the other chapters in the monograph, and it synthesizes some of their central points. It begins with a description of the spatial structure of climate and climate variability, including how the NAO relates to other prominent patterns of atmospheric circulation variability. There is no unique way to define the spatial structure of the NAO, or thus its temporal evolution, but several common approaches are illustrated. The relationship between the NAO and variations in surface temperature, storms and precipitation, and thus the economy, as well as the ocean and ecosystem responses to NAO variability, are described. Although the NAO is a mode of variability internal to the atmosphere, indices of it exhibit decadal variability and trends. That not all of its variability can be attributed to intraseasonal stochastic atmospheric processes points to a role for external forcings and, perhaps, a small but useful amount of predictability. The surface, stratospheric and anthropogenic processes that may influence the phase and amplitude of the NAO are reviewed.

/pdf/an-overview-of-the-north-atlantic-oscillation-3uug0y0py4.pdf

An overview of the North Atlantic Oscillation

Synthesis of river-monitoring data reveals that the average annual discharge of fresh water from the six largest Eurasian rivers to the Arctic Ocean increased by 7% from 1936 to 1999. The average annual rate of increase was 2.0 ± 0.7 cubic kilometers per year. Consequently, average annual discharge from the six rivers is now about 128 cubic kilometers per year greater than it was when routine measurements of discharge began. Discharge was correlated with changes in both the North Atlantic Oscillation and global mean surface air temperature. The observed large-scale change in freshwater flux has potentially important implications for ocean circulation and climate.

/pdf/increasing-river-discharge-to-the-arctic-ocean-3tx469d7ef.pdf

Increasing river discharge to the Arctic Ocean

Linear trends in arctic sea-ice extent over the period 1979 to 2006 are negative in every month. This ice loss is best viewed as a combination of strong natural variability in the coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere system and a growing radiative forcing associated with rising concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases, the latter supported by evidence of qualitative consistency between observed trends and those simulated by climate models over the same period. Although the large scatter between individual model simulations leads to much uncertainty as to when a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean might be realized, this transition to a new arctic state may be rapid once the ice thins to a more vulnerable state. Loss of the ice cover is expected to affect the Arctic's freshwater system and surface energy budget and could be manifested in middle latitudes as altered patterns of atmospheric circulation and precipitation.

/pdf/perspectives-on-the-arctic-s-shrinking-sea-ice-cover-hd6p6gnyw9.pdf

Perspectives on the Arctic's Shrinking Sea-Ice Cover

https://www.cgd.ucar.edu/staff/jhurrell/docs/hurrell.natl_climvar.jmarsyst09.pdf

North Atlantic climate variability: The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation

The climatically sensitive zone of the Arctic Ocean lies squarely within the domain of the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), one of the most robust recurrent modes of atmospheric behavior. However, the specific response of the Arctic to annual and longer-period changes in the NAO is not well understood. Here that response is investigated using a wide range of datasets, but concentrating on the winter season when the forcing is maximal and on the postwar period, which includes the most comprehensive instrumental record. This period also contains the largest recorded low-frequency change in NAO activity—from its most persistent and extreme low index phase in the 1960s to its most persistent and extreme high index phase in the late 1980s/early 1990s. This longperiod shift between contrasting NAO extrema was accompanied, among other changes, by an intensifying storm track through the Nordic Seas, a radical increase in the atmospheric moisture flux convergence and winter precipitation in this sector, an increase in the amount and temperature of the Atlantic water inflow to the Arctic Ocean via both inflow branches (Barents Sea Throughflow and West Spitsbergen Current), a decrease in the late-winter extent of sea ice throughout the European subarctic, and (temporarily at least) an increase in the annual volume flux of ice from the Fram Strait.

B. Adlandsvik

Papers

The Arctic Ocean Response to the North Atlantic Oscillation