Pakistan is vulnerable to climate change, and extreme climatic conditions are threatening food security. This study examines the effects of climate change (e.g., maximum temperature, minimum temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, and the sunshine) on the major crops of Pakistan (e.g., wheat, rice, maize, and sugarcane). The methods of feasible generalized least square (FGLS) and heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation (HAC) consistent standard error were employed using time series data for the period 1989 to 2015. The results of the study reveal that maximum temperature adversely affects wheat production, while the effect of minimum temperature is positive and significant for all crops. Rainfall effect towards the yield of a selected crop is negative, except for wheat. To cope with and mitigate the adverse effects of climate change, there is a need for the development of heat- and drought-resistant high-yielding varieties to ensure food security in the country.

https://www.mdpi.com/2304-8158/6/6/39/pdf/1

Climate Change and Its Impact on the Yield of Major Food Crops: Evidence from Pakistan.

The climate change effects on agricultural output in different regions of the world and have been debated in the literature of emerging economies. Recently, the agriculture sector has influenced globally through climate change and also hurts all sectors of economies. This study aims to examine and explore the impact of global climate change on agricultural output in China over the period of 1982-2014.,Different unit root tests including augmented Dickey–Fuller, Phillips–Perron and Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt and Shin are used to check the order of integration among the study variables. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration and the Johansen cointegration test are applied to assess the association among the study variables with the evidence of long-run and short-run analysis.,Unit root test estimations confirm that all variables are stationary at the combination of I(0) and I(1). The results show that CO2 emissions have a significant effect on agricultural output in both long-run and short-run analyses, while temperature and rainfall have a negative effect on agricultural output in the long-run. Among other determinants, the land area under cereal crops, fertilizer consumption, and energy consumption have a positive and significant association with agricultural output in both long-run and short-run analysis. The estimated coefficient of the error correction term is also highly significant.,China’s population is multiplying, and in the coming decades, the country will face food safety and security challenges. Possible initiatives are needed to configure the Chinese Government to cope with the adverse effects of climate change on agriculture and ensure adequate food for the growing population. In concise, the analysis specifies that legislators and policy experts should spot that the climate change would transmute the total output factors, accordingly a county or regional specific and crop-specific total factor of production pattern adaptation is indorsed.,The present empirical study is the first, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, to investigate the impact of global climate change on agricultural output in China by using ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration and Johansen cointegration test.

Short and long-run impacts of climate change on agriculture: an empirical evidence from China

Alternate wetting and drying: A water-saving and ecofriendly rice production system

Rainfall pattern and temperature variation are changing due to global warming, affecting crop production. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of temperature and rainfall on rice production during the rice growth phases over the Punjab province, Pakistan, for the period of 1981–2017. The impact of climate on rice production is analyzed using the statistical techniques. Results show that maximum temperature negatively affects rice plant resulting in decrease in the number of plants at replantation stage. The positive impact of minimum temperature on rice production is also observed that may cause growth of plant, which affects the rice crop at replantation stage during vegetative phase. Results revealed that number of tillers and rice plant diet increase with the positive impact of rainfall at tillering stage. Maximum temperature has negative impact on rice crop at tillering and stem elongation stages. It is observed that rainfall has negative impact on rice plant at heading and flowering stages. Substantial reduction in rice production is observed due to damage of reproductive cells at heading and flowering stages during the reproductive phase. The negative effect of rainfall on rice production is also observed at milking stage during the ripening phase. The negative significant impact of rainfall is observed on gross domestic product per capita during the reproductive phase. This study also predicts that temperatures in the Punjab will rise in the near future; therefore, it is recommended that breeders should introduce rice varieties that consume less water and are more productive in high temperature.

Impact of temperature and rainfall on rice production in Punjab, Pakistan

Punjab, Pakistan is famous for rice production in all over the world, but economic indicators are low toward rice contribution in the regional economy. Climatic and physical factors are responsible for rice yield degradation. Suitable land for rice cultivation can be mapped keeping in view these climatic and physical factors. In this research, rice cultivation season was calculated using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) time series datasets for the complete year 2014. Landsat 8 thermal datasets were obtained for the rice cultivation season and temperature based growth variability maps were generated. The total area under investigation was 13,657 km2 out of which 931.61 km2 (6.8%) was found to be least suitable, 3316.69 km2 (24.2%) was moderately suitable, 6019.63 km2 (44%) was highly suitable and 3395.28 km2 (24.85%) was not suitable for rice crop cultivation. Results showed that highly suitable area was characterized by a temperature range between 21 and 32 °C, soil pH level between 5.5 and 7.2, soil type was < 78% clay and the soil was imperfectly drained. We compared land suitability map covering the complete land use with rice cultivated area only and found the results as follows: 592 km2 (5.9%) rice cultivation was in least suitable, 4385 km2 (44%) cultivation was in highly suitable, 2210 km2 (23.2%) cultivation was in moderately suitable and 1674 km2 (16.8%) cultivation was in not suitable regions. The techniques applied in this research may be used by local farmers to select cropping patterns and land suitability for rice crop.

/pdf/delineation-of-potential-sites-for-rice-cultivation-through-1eykdlfifi.pdf

Delineation of Potential Sites for Rice Cultivation Through Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) Using Remote Sensing and GIS

Pattern of temperature and precipitation are changing due to global warming, resulting inhaving impact on crop productivity.The objective of this study was to estimate the impact of climat ic variableson rice productivity in the rice - wheat cropping system of the Punjab. Aggregatedtime series data were used for rice cropCobb Douglas type production function wasemployedwith rice yield as dependent variable and climatic factorsas independent variables. Results showed thatan increase intemperature by 1.5 o C and 3 o C would enhance rice yield by 2.09% and 4.33%, respectively compared to the base year regression estimates. However, an increase in precipitation by 5% and 15% duringSeptember-Octobercould adversely affect rice productivity by 5.71% and 15.26%,respectively. However, its decrease ispositively related with rice yield. Evolving and disseminating rice varieties having adaptation to climate change should be the focus of future research and development. Improved farm management practices,creating awareness among farmersabout climate change and strengthening extension department are some measuresto be taken for adaptation to climate change in the rice region .

/pdf/impact-of-temperature-and-precipitation-on-rice-productivity-532ikrj5ul.pdf

B. Ahmad

Papers

Impact of temperature and precipitation on rice productivity in rice-wheat cropping system of Punjab province.