https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140673698043116.pdf

Effects of intensive blood-pressure lowering and low-dose aspirin in patients with hypertension: principal results of the Hypertension Optimal Treatment (HOT) randomised trial

In 1951 the British Medical Association forwarded to all British doctors a questionnaire about their smoking habits, and 34440 men replied. With few exceptions, all men who replied in 1951 have been followed for 20 years. The certified causes of all 10 072 deaths and subsequent changes in smoking habits were recorded. The ratio of the death rate among cigarette smokers to that among lifelong non-smokers of comparable age was, for men under 70 years, about 2:1, while for men over 70 years it was about 1-5:1. These ratios suggest that between a half and a third of all cigarette smokers will die because of their smoking, if the excess death rates are actually caused by smoking. To investigate whether this is the case, the relation of many different causes of death to age and tobacco consumption were examined, as were the effects of giving up smoking. Smoking caused death chiefly by heart disease among middle-aged men (and, with a less extreme relative risk, among old men,) lung cancer, chronic obstructive lung disease, and various vascular diseases. The distinctive features of this study were the completeness of follow-up, the accuracy of death certification, and the fact that the study population as a whole reduced its cigarette consumption substantially during the period of observation. As a result lung cancer grew relatively less common as the study progressed, but other cancers did not, thus illustrating in an unusual way the causal nature of the association between smoking and lung cancer.

https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/328/7455/1519.full.pdf

Mortality in relation to smoking: 50 years' observations on male British doctors

Abstract Objective: To determine the effects of “prolonged” antiplatelet therapy (that is, given for one month or more) on “vascular events” (non-fatal myocardial infarctions, non-fatal strokes, or vascular deaths) in various categories of patients. Design: Overviews of 145 randomised trials of “prolonged” antiplatelet therapy versus control and 29 randomised comparisons between such antiplatelet regimens. Setting: Randomised trials that could have been available by March 1990. Subjects: Trials of antiplatelet therapy versus control included about 70 000 “high risk” patients (that is, with some vascular disease or other condition implying an increased risk of occlusive vascular disease) and 30 000 “low risk” subjects from the general population. Direct comparisons of different antiplatelet regimens involved about 10 000 high risk patients. Results: In each of four main high risk categories of patients antiplatelet therapy was definitely protective. The percentages of patients suffering a vascular event among those allocated antiplatelet therapy versus appropriately adjusted control percentages (and mean scheduled treatment durations and net absolute benefits) were: (a) among about 20 000 patients with acute myocardial infarction, 10% antiplatelet therapy v 14% control (one month benefit about 40 vascular events avoided per 1000 patients treated (2P< 0.00001)); (b) among about 20 000 patients with a past history of myocardial infarction, 13% antiplatelet therapy v 17% control (two year benefit about 40/1000 (2P<0.00001)); (c) among about 10 000 patients with a past history of stroke or transient ischaemic attack, 18% antiplatelet therapy v 22% control (three year benefit about 40/1000 (2P<0.00001)); (d) among about 20 000 patients with some other relevant medical history (unstable angina, stable angina, vascular surgery, angioplasty, atrial fibrillation, valvular disease, peripheral vascular disease, etc), 9% v 14% in 4000 patients with unstable angina (six month benefit about 50/1000 (2P<0.00001)) and 6% v 8% in 16 000 other high risk patients (one year benefit about 20/1000 (2P<0.00001)). Reductions in vascular events were about one quarter in each of these four main categories and were separately statistically significant in middle age and old age, in men and women, in hypertensive and normotensive patients, and in diabetic and non: diabetic patients. Taking all high risk patients together showed reductions of about one third in non-fatal myocardial infarction, about one third in non-fatal stroke, and about one sixth in vascular death (each 2P<0.00001). There was no evidence that non-vascular deaths were increased, so in each of the four main high risk categories overall mortality was significantly reduced. The most widely tested antiplatelet regimen was “medium dose” (75-325 mg/day) aspirin. Doses throughout this range seemed similarly effective (although in an acute emergency it might be prudent to use an initial dose of 160-325 mg rather than about 75 mg). There was no appreciable evidence that either a higher aspirin dose or any other antiplatelet regimen was more effective than medium dose aspirin in preventing vascular events. The optimal duration of treatment for patients with a past history of myocardial infarction, stroke, or transient ischaemic attack could not be determined directly because most trials lasted only one, two, or three years (average about two years). Nevertheless, there was significant (2P<0.00001) further benefit between the end of year 1 and the end of year 3, suggesting that longer treatment might well be more effective. Among low risk recipients of “primary prevention” a significant reduction of one third in non: fatal myocardial infarction was, however, accompanied by a non-significant increase in stroke. Furthermore, the absolute reduction in vascular events was much smaller than for high risk patients despite a much longer treatment period (4.4% antiplatelet therapy v 4.8% control; five year benefit only about four per 1000 patients treated) and was not significant (2P=0.09). Conclusions: Among a much wider range of patients at high risk of occlusive vascular disease than is currently treated routinely, some years of antiplatelet therapy - with aspirin 75-325 mg/day or some other antiplatelet regimen (provided there are no contraindications) - offers worthwhile protection against myocardial infarction, stroke, and death. Significant benefit is evident not only among patients with unstable angina, suspected acute myocardial infarction, or a past history of myocardial infarction, stroke, or transient ischaemic attack, but also among many other categories of high risk patients (such as those having vascular procedures and those with stable angina or peripheral vascular disease). There is as yet, however, no clear evidence on the balance of risks and benefits of antiplatelet therapy in primary prevention among low risk subjects.

Collaborative overview of randomized trials of antiplatelet therapy .1. prevention of death, myocardial-infarction, and stroke by prolonged antiplatelet therapy in various categories of patients

Aspirin in the primary and secondary prevention of vascular disease: collaborative meta-analysis of individual participant data from randomised trials.

BACKGROUND Mental disorders have a strong association with suicide. This meta-analysis, or statistical overview, of the literature gives an estimate of the suicide risk of the common mental disorders.

METHOD We searched the medical literature to find reports on the mortality of mental disorders. English language reports were located on MEDLINE (1966-1993) with the search terms mental disorders', 'brain injury', 'eating disorders', 'epilepsy', 'suicide attempt', 'psychosurgery', with 'mortality' and 'follow-up studies', and from the reference lists of these reports. We abstracted 249 reports with two years or more follow-up and less than 10% loss of subjects, and compared observed numbers of suicides with those expected. A standardised mortality ratio (SMR) was calculated for each disorder.

RESULTS Of 44 disorders considered, 36 have a significantly raised SMR for suicide, five have a raised SMR which fails to reach significance, one SMR is not raised and for two entries the SMR could not be calculated.

CONCLUSIONS If these results can be generalised then virtually all mental disorders have an increased risk of suicide excepting mental retardation and dementia. The suicide risk is highest for functional and lowest for organic disorders with substance misuse disorders lying between. However, within these broad groupings the suicide risk varies widely.

Suicide as an outcome for mental disorders. A meta-analysis.

A six year randomised trial was conducted among 5139 apparently healthy male doctors to see whether 500 mg aspirin daily would reduce the incidence of and mortality from stroke, myocardial infarction, or other vascular conditions Though total mortality was 10% lower in the treated than control group, this difference was not statistically significant and chiefly involved diseases other than stroke or myocardial infarction Likewise, there was no significant difference in the incidence of non-fatal myocardial infarction or stroke—indeed, disabling strokes were somewhat commoner among those allocated aspirin The lower confidence limit for the effect of aspirin on non-fatal stroke or myocardial infarction, however, was a substantial 25% reduction Migraine and certain types of musculoskeletal pain were reported significantly less often in the treated than control group, but as the control group was not given a placebo the relevance of these findings was difficult to assess There was no apparent reduction in the incidence of cataract in the treated group The lack of any apparent reduction in disabling stroke or vascular death contrasts with the established value of antiplatelet treatment after occlusive vascular disease

/pdf/randomised-trial-of-prophylactic-daily-aspirin-in-british-21bd0qfb0t.pdf

Randomised trial of prophylactic daily aspirin in British male doctors

A total of 6194 female doctors who in 1951 replied to a questionnaire about their smoking habits were followed up prospectively for 22 years. During that time 1094 died. Ischaemic heart disease, lung cancer, and chronic obstructive lung disease were all significantly (p < 0.001) related to smoking, though the absolute excess risks were lower than in male doctors smoking equivalent amounts. Female smokers born before the first world war were less likely to describe themselves as inhalers or as having started to smoke while young than were female smokers who were born later. In these respects this younger group resembled male smokers, and as they move into their 60s and 70s their absolute risk of lung disease and relative risk of ischaemic heart disease will probably come to resemble the risks for men smoking the same numbers of cigarettes. These findings show only that cigarette smoking causes lung cancer, chronic obstructive lung disease, and heart disease in women as in men. Whether the proportional increase in mortality from these diseases is as great in women as in men might be estimated directly from new case-control studies on men and women born since 1920.

https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/280/6219/967.full.pdf

B Hafner

Papers

Randomised trial of prophylactic daily aspirin in British male doctors

Mortality in relation to smoking: 22 years' observations on female British doctors.