Showing papers by "Barend F.N. Erasmus published in 2000"
Journal Article•
TL;DR: In this article, the authors explored the distribution responses of selected antlion species to a climate change scenario and found that species from the more arid western parts of South Africa will be subject to severe range contraction and range shifts whereas the species from more mesic eastern parts will experience range contraction with limited range shift, and the likelihood of successful range shifts will be affected by the nature of novel communities, habitat suitability and the degree of land transformation.
Abstract: The application of a model modified from Jeffree & Jeffree (1994) for investigating the distribution responses of selected antlion species to a climate change scenario was explored in this study. Modifications include a multivariate capability that facilitates the incorporation of precipitation seasonality, and provides useful output in the form of probability of occurrence values for each species. The model can be used to interpolate the distributions of poorly sampled taxa as well as predict responses to a changing climate. It is predicted that species from the more arid western parts of South Africa will be subject to severe range contraction and range shifts whereas the species from the more mesic eastern parts will experience range contraction with limited range shift. The likelihood of successful range shifts will be affected by the nature of novel communities, habitat suitability and the degree of land transformation. Given the extent of the predicted spatial responses, conservation planners can no longer afford to ignore future climate impacts on species distribution patterns.
21 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors link two different methodologies to determine the effects of climate change on the Western Cape farm sector and conclude that future climate change will lead to lower precipitation, which implies that less water will be available to agriculture.
Abstract: This paper links two different methodologies to determine the effects of climate change on the Western Cape farm sector. First, it uses a general circulation model (GCM) to model future climate change in the Western Cape, particularly with respect to precipitation. Second, a sector mathematical programming model of the Western Cape farm sector is used to incorporate the predicted climate change, specifically rainfall, from the GCM to determine the effects on key variables of the regional farm economy. In summary, results indicate that future climate change will lead to lower precipitation, which implies that less water will be available to agriculture in the Western Cape. This will have a negative overall effect on the Western Cape farm economy. Both producer welfare and consumer welfare will decrease. Total employment in the farm sector will also decrease as producers switch to a more extensive production pattern. The total decline in welfare, therefore, will fall disproportionately on the poor.
17 citations