Importance US life expectancy has not kept pace with that of other wealthy countries and is now decreasing. Objective To examine vital statistics and review the history of changes in US life expectancy and increasing mortality rates; and to identify potential contributing factors, drawing insights from current literature and an analysis of state-level trends. Evidence Life expectancy data for 1959-2016 and cause-specific mortality rates for 1999-2017 were obtained from the US Mortality Database and CDC WONDER, respectively. The analysis focused on midlife deaths (ages 25-64 years), stratified by sex, race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status, and geography (including the 50 states). Published research from January 1990 through August 2019 that examined relevant mortality trends and potential contributory factors was examined. Findings Between 1959 and 2016, US life expectancy increased from 69.9 years to 78.9 years but declined for 3 consecutive years after 2014. The recent decrease in US life expectancy culminated a period of increasing cause-specific mortality among adults aged 25 to 64 years that began in the 1990s, ultimately producing an increase in all-cause mortality that began in 2010. During 2010-2017, midlife all-cause mortality rates increased from 328.5 deaths/100 000 to 348.2 deaths/100 000. By 2014, midlife mortality was increasing across all racial groups, caused by drug overdoses, alcohol abuse, suicides, and a diverse list of organ system diseases. The largest relative increases in midlife mortality rates occurred in New England (New Hampshire, 23.3%; Maine, 20.7%; Vermont, 19.9%) and the Ohio Valley (West Virginia, 23.0%; Ohio, 21.6%; Indiana, 14.8%; Kentucky, 14.7%). The increase in midlife mortality during 2010-2017 was associated with an estimated 33 307 excess US deaths, 32.8% of which occurred in 4 Ohio Valley states. Conclusions and Relevance US life expectancy increased for most of the past 60 years, but the rate of increase slowed over time and life expectancy decreased after 2014. A major contributor has been an increase in mortality from specific causes (eg, drug overdoses, suicides, organ system diseases) among young and middle-aged adults of all racial groups, with an onset as early as the 1990s and with the largest relative increases occurring in the Ohio Valley and New England. The implications for public health and the economy are substantial, making it vital to understand the underlying causes.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/articlepdf/2756187/jama_woolf_2019_sc_190006.pdf

Life Expectancy and Mortality Rates in the United States, 1959-2017

The article examines the statistics of prescription opioid overdose deaths in the U.S. since 2016. It discusses the availability of illicitly manufactured synthetic opioids such as fentanyl that were previously prescription medications. The article goes on to discuss the need to improve surveillance through agencies like the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) National Center for Injury Prevention and Control.

Quantifying the Epidemic of Prescription Opioid Overdose Deaths.

Importance Differences in obesity by sex, age group, race and Hispanic origin among US adults have been reported, but differences by urbanization level have been less studied. Objectives To provide estimates of obesity by demographic characteristics and urbanization level and to examine trends in obesity prevalence by urbanization level. Design, Setting, and Participants Serial cross-sectional analysis of measured height and weight among adults aged 20 years or older in the 2001-2016 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, a nationally representative survey of the civilian, noninstitutionalized US population. Exposures Sex, age group, race and Hispanic origin, education level, smoking status, and urbanization level as assessed by metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs; large: ≥1 million population). Main Outcomes and Measures Prevalence of obesity (body mass index [BMI] ≥30) and severe obesity (BMI ≥40) by subgroups in 2013-2016 and trends by urbanization level between 2001-2004 and 2013-2016. Results Complete data on weight, height, and urbanization level were available for 10 792 adults (mean age, 48 years; 51% female [weighted]). During 2013-2016, 38.9% (95% CI, 37.0% to 40.7%) of US adults had obesity and 7.6% (95% CI, 6.8% to 8.6%) had severe obesity. Men living in medium or small MSAs had a higher age-adjusted prevalence of obesity compared with men living in large MSAs (42.4% vs 31.8%, respectively; adjusted difference, 9.8 percentage points [95% CI, 5.1 to 14.5 percentage points]); however, the age-adjusted prevalence among men living in non-MSAs was not significantly different compared with men living in large MSAs (38.9% vs 31.8%, respectively; adjusted difference, 4.8 percentage points [95% CI, −2.9 to 12.6 percentage points]). The age-adjusted prevalence of obesity was higher among women living in medium or small MSAs compared with women living in large MSAs (42.5% vs 38.1%, respectively; adjusted difference, 4.3 percentage points [95% CI, 0.2 to 8.5 percentage points]) and among women living in non-MSAs compared with women living in large MSAs (47.2% vs 38.1%, respectively; adjusted difference, 4.7 percentage points [95% CI, 0.2 to 9.3 percentage points]). Similar patterns were seen for severe obesity except that the difference between men living in large MSAs compared with non-MSAs was significant. The age-adjusted prevalence of obesity and severe obesity also varied significantly by age group, race and Hispanic origin, and education level, and these patterns of variation were often different by sex. Between 2001-2004 and 2013-2016, the age-adjusted prevalence of obesity and severe obesity significantly increased among all adults at all urbanization levels. Conclusions and Relevance In this nationally representative survey of adults in the United States, the age-adjusted prevalence of obesity and severe obesity in 2013-2016 varied by level of urbanization, with significantly greater prevalence of obesity and severe obesity among adults living in nonmetropolitan statistical areas compared with adults living in large metropolitan statistical areas.

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Differences in Obesity Prevalence by Demographic Characteristics and Urbanization Level Among Adults in the United States, 2013-2016.

Fentanyl in the US heroin supply: A rapidly changing risk environment.

PROBLEM/CONDITION Previous reports have shown that persons living in nonmetropolitan (rural or urban) areas in the United States have higher death rates from all cancers combined than persons living in metropolitan areas. Disparities might vary by cancer type and between occurrence and death from the disease. This report provides a comprehensive assessment of cancer incidence and deaths by cancer type in nonmetropolitan and metropolitan counties. REPORTING PERIOD 2004-2015. DESCRIPTION OF SYSTEM Cancer incidence data from CDC's National Program of Cancer Registries and the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program were used to calculate average annual age-adjusted incidence rates for 2009-2013 and trends in annual age-adjusted incidence rates for 2004-2013. Cancer mortality data from the National Vital Statistics System were used to calculate average annual age-adjusted death rates for 2011-2015 and trends in annual age-adjusted death rates for 2006-2015. For 5-year average annual rates, counties were classified into four categories (nonmetropolitan rural, nonmetropolitan urban, metropolitan with population <1 million, and metropolitan with population ≥1 million). For the trend analysis, which used annual rates, these categories were combined into two categories (nonmetropolitan and metropolitan). Rates by county classification were examined by sex, age, race/ethnicity, U.S. census region, and cancer site. Trends in rates were examined by county classification and cancer site. RESULTS During the most recent 5-year period for which data were available, nonmetropolitan rural areas had lower average annual age-adjusted cancer incidence rates for all anatomic cancer sites combined but higher death rates than metropolitan areas. During 2006-2015, the annual age-adjusted death rates for all cancer sites combined decreased at a slower pace in nonmetropolitan areas (-1.0% per year) than in metropolitan areas (-1.6% per year), increasing the differences in these rates. In contrast, annual age-adjusted incidence rates for all cancer sites combined decreased approximately 1% per year during 2004-2013 both in nonmetropolitan and metropolitan counties. INTERPRETATION This report provides the first comprehensive description of cancer incidence and mortality in nonmetropolitan and metropolitan counties in the United States. Nonmetropolitan rural counties had higher incidence of and deaths from several cancers related to tobacco use and cancers that can be prevented by screening. Differences between nonmetropolitan and metropolitan counties in cancer incidence might reflect differences in risk factors such as cigarette smoking, obesity, and physical inactivity, whereas differences in cancer death rates might reflect disparities in access to health care and timely diagnosis and treatment. PUBLIC HEALTH ACTION Many cancer cases and deaths could be prevented, and public health programs can use evidence-based strategies from the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force and Advisory Committee for Immunization Practices (ACIP) to support cancer prevention and control. The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force recommends population-based screening for colorectal, female breast, and cervical cancers among adults at average risk for these cancers and for lung cancer among adults at high risk; screening adults for tobacco use and excessive alcohol use, offering counseling and interventions as needed; and using low-dose aspirin to prevent colorectal cancer among adults considered to be at high risk for cardiovascular disease based on specific criteria. ACIP recommends vaccination against cancer-related infectious diseases including human papillomavirus and hepatitis B virus. The Guide to Community Preventive Services describes program and policy interventions proven to increase cancer screening and vaccination rates and to prevent tobacco use, excessive alcohol use, obesity, and physical inactivity.

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Invasive Cancer Incidence, 2004-2013, and Deaths, 2006-2015, in Nonmetropolitan and Metropolitan Counties - United States.

PROBLEM/CONDITION Higher rates of death in nonmetropolitan areas (often referred to as rural areas) compared with metropolitan areas have been described but not systematically assessed. PERIOD COVERED 1999-2014 DESCRIPTION OF SYSTEM: Mortality data for U.S. residents from the National Vital Statistics System were used to calculate age-adjusted death rates and potentially excess deaths for nonmetropolitan and metropolitan areas for the five leading causes of death. Age-adjusted death rates included all ages and were adjusted to the 2000 U.S. standard population by the direct method. Potentially excess deaths are defined as deaths among persons aged <80 years that exceed the numbers that would be expected if the death rates of states with the lowest rates (i.e., benchmark states) occurred across all states. (Benchmark states were the three states with the lowest rates for each cause during 2008-2010.) Potentially excess deaths were calculated separately for nonmetropolitan and metropolitan areas. Data are presented for the United States and the 10 U.S. Department of Health and Human Services public health regions. RESULTS Across the United States, nonmetropolitan areas experienced higher age-adjusted death rates than metropolitan areas. The percentages of potentially excess deaths among persons aged <80 years from the five leading causes were higher in nonmetropolitan areas than in metropolitan areas. For example, approximately half of deaths from unintentional injury and chronic lower respiratory disease in nonmetropolitan areas were potentially excess deaths, compared with 39.2% and 30.9%, respectively, in metropolitan areas. Potentially excess deaths also differed among and within public health regions; within regions, nonmetropolitan areas tended to have higher percentages of potentially excess deaths than metropolitan areas. INTERPRETATION Compared with metropolitan areas, nonmetropolitan areas have higher age-adjusted death rates and greater percentages of potentially excess deaths from the five leading causes of death, nationally and across public health regions. PUBLIC HEALTH ACTION Routine tracking of potentially excess deaths in nonmetropolitan areas might help public health departments identify emerging health problems, monitor known problems, and focus interventions to reduce preventable deaths in these areas.

Leading Causes of Death in Nonmetropolitan and Metropolitan Areas- United States, 1999-2014.

Objectives-This report identifies the specific drugs most frequently involved in drug overdose deaths in the United States from 2010 through 2014. Methods-The 2010-2014 National Vital Statistics System mortality files were linked to electronic files containing literal text information from death certificates. Drug overdose was defined using the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision underlying cause-of-death codes X40-X44 (unintentional), X60-X64 (suicide), X85 (homicide), and Y10-Y14 (undetermined intent). Among deaths with an underlying cause of death of drug overdose, the literal text in three fields of the death certificate (i.e., the cause of death from Part I, significant conditions contributing to death from Part II, and a description of how the injury occurred from Box 43) were searched to identify drug mentions. Search term lists were developed using existing drug classification systems as well as from manual review of the literal text. The search term list was then used to identify the specific drugs involved in overdose deaths. Descriptive statistics were reported for drug overdose deaths involving the 10 most frequently mentioned drugs on death certificates. Tables and figures presenting information on the specific drugs involved in deaths are based on deaths with mention of at least one specific drug on the death certificate. Results-From 2010 through 2014, the number of drug overdose deaths per year increased 23%, from 38,329 in 2010 to 47,055 in 2014. During this time period, the percentage of drug overdose deaths involving at least one specific drug increased, from 67% in 2010 to 78% in 2014. Among drug overdose deaths with at least one drug specified on the death certificate, the 10 drugs most frequently involved in overdose deaths included the following opioids: heroin, oxycodone, methadone, morphine, hydrocodone, and fentanyl; the following benzodiazepines: alprazolam and diazepam; and the following stimulants: cocaine and methamphetamine. During this 5-year period, the age-adjusted rate of drug overdose deaths involving heroin more than tripled, and the rate of drug overdose deaths involving methamphetamine more than doubled. The rate of drug overdose deaths involving fentanyl more than doubled in a single year (from 2013 to 2014). In 2014, of the 36,667 drug overdose deaths involving at least one specific drug, 52% of these deaths specified one drug, 38% specified two or three drugs, and 11% specified four or more drugs. Conclusions-Analysis of the literal text from death certificates can be used to identify patterns in the specific drugs most frequently involved in drug overdose deaths. From 2010 through 2014, the top 10 drugs involved were the same, but the relative ranking and age-adjusted rates for deaths involving these drugs changed. Literal text analysis also revealed that many drug overdose deaths involved multiple drugs. Findings should be interpreted in light of the improvement in the quality of the data that resulted from better reporting of specific drugs on death certificates from 2010 through 2014. Relative increases in the death rates involving specific drugs and the rankings of these drugs may be affected by improvements in reporting, real increases in the numbers of death, or both.

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Drugs Most Frequently Involved in Drug Overdose Deaths: United States, 2010-2014.

National Vital Statistics Reports: Drugs Most Frequently Involved in Drug Overdose Deaths: United States, 2011-2016

Objective-This report identifies the specific drugs involved most frequently in drug overdose deaths in the United States from 2011 through 2016. Methods-Record-level data from the 2011-2016 National Vital Statistics System-Mortality files were linked to electronic files containing literal text information from death certificates. Drug overdose deaths were identified using the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision underlying causeof- death codes X40-X44, X60-X64, X85, and Y10-Y14. Drug mentions were identified by searching the literal text in three fields of the death certificate: the causes of death from Part I, significant conditions contributing to death from Part II, and a description of how the injury occurred. Contextual information was used to determine drug involvement in the death. Descriptive statistics were calculated for drug overdose deaths involving the 10 most frequently mentioned drugs. Deaths involving more than one drug (e.g., a death involving both heroin and cocaine) were counted in all relevant drug categories (e.g., the same death was included in counts of heroin deaths and in counts of cocaine deaths). Results-Among drug overdose deaths that mentioned at least one specific drug, the 10 most frequently mentioned drugs during 2011-2016 included fentanyl, heroin, hydrocodone, methadone, morphine, oxycodone, alprazolam, diazepam, cocaine, and methamphetamine. Oxycodone ranked first in 2011, heroin during 2012-2015, and fentanyl in 2016. During the study period, cocaine consistently ranked second or third. From 2011 through 2016, the age-adjusted rate of drug overdose deaths involving heroin more than tripled, as did the rate of drug overdose deaths involving methamphetamine. The rate of drug overdose deaths involving fentanyl and fentanyl analogs doubled each year from 2013 through 2016, from 0.6 per 100,000 in 2013 to 1.3 in 2014, 2.6 in 2015, and 5.9 in 2016. The rate of overdose deaths involving methadone decreased from 1.4 per 100,000 in 2011 to 1.1 in 2016. The 10 most frequently mentioned drugs often were found in combination with each other. The drugs most frequently mentioned varied by the intent of the drug overdose death. In 2016, the drugs most frequently mentioned in unintentional drug overdose deaths were fentanyl, heroin, and cocaine, while the drugs most frequently mentioned in suicides by drug overdose were oxycodone, diphenhydramine, hydrocodone, and alprazolam.

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Drugs most frequently involved in drug overdose deaths: United States, 2011-2016

PROBLEM/CONDITION A 2017 report quantified the higher percentage of potentially excess (or preventable) deaths in nonmetropolitan areas (often referred to as rural areas) compared with metropolitan areas. In that report, CDC compared national, regional, and state estimates of potentially excess deaths among the five leading causes of death in nonmetropolitan and metropolitan counties for 2010 and 2014. This report enhances the geographic detail by using the six levels of the 2013 National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) urban-rural classification scheme for counties and extending estimates of potentially excess deaths by annual percent change (APC) and for additional years (2010-2017). Trends were tested both with linear and quadratic terms. PERIOD COVERED 2010-2017. DESCRIPTION OF SYSTEM Mortality data for U.S. residents from the National Vital Statistics System were used to calculate potentially excess deaths from the five leading causes of death among persons aged <80 years. CDC's NCHS urban-rural classification scheme for counties was used to categorize the deaths according to the urban-rural county classification level of the decedent's county of residence (1: large central metropolitan [most urban], 2: large fringe metropolitan, 3: medium metropolitan, 4: small metropolitan, 5: micropolitan, and 6: noncore [most rural]). Potentially excess deaths were defined as deaths among persons aged <80 years that exceeded the number expected if the death rates for each cause in all states were equivalent to those in the benchmark states (i.e., the three states with the lowest rates). Potentially excess deaths were calculated separately for the six urban-rural county categories nationally, the 10 U.S. Department of Health and Human Services public health regions, and the 50 states and District of Columbia. RESULTS The number of potentially excess deaths among persons aged <80 years in the United States increased during 2010-2017 for unintentional injuries (APC: 11.2%), decreased for cancer (APC: -9.1%), and remained stable for heart disease (APC: 1.1%), chronic lower respiratory disease (CLRD) (APC: 1.7%), and stroke (APC: 0.3). Across the United States, percentages of potentially excess deaths from the five leading causes were higher in nonmetropolitan counties in all years during 2010-2017. When assessed by the six urban-rural county classifications, percentages of potentially excess deaths in the most rural counties (noncore) were consistently higher than in the most urban counties (large central metropolitan) for the study period. Potentially excess deaths from heart disease increased most in micropolitan counties (APC: 2.5%) and decreased most in large fringe metropolitan counties (APC: -1.1%). Potentially excess deaths from cancer decreased in all county categories, with the largest decreases in large central metropolitan (APC: -16.1%) and large fringe metropolitan (APC: -15.1%) counties. In all county categories, potentially excess deaths from the five leading causes increased, with the largest increases occurring in large central metropolitan (APC: 18.3%), large fringe metropolitan (APC: 17.1%), and medium metropolitan (APC: 11.1%) counties. Potentially excess deaths from CLRD decreased most in large central metropolitan counties (APC: -5.6%) and increased most in micropolitan (APC: 3.7%) and noncore (APC: 3.6%) counties. In all county categories, potentially excess deaths from stroke exhibited a quadratic trend (i.e., decreased then increased), except in micropolitan counties, where no change occurred. Percentages of potentially excess deaths also differed among and within public health regions and across states by urban-rural county classification during 2010-2017. INTERPRETATION Nonmetropolitan counties had higher percentages of potentially excess deaths from the five leading causes than metropolitan counties during 2010-2017 nationwide, across public health regions, and in the majority of states. The gap between the most rural and most urban counties for potentially excess deaths increased during 2010-2017 for three causes of death (cancer, heart disease, and CLRD), decreased for unintentional injury, and remained relatively stable for stroke. Urban and suburban counties (large central metropolitan and large fringe metropolitan, medium metropolitan, and small metropolitan) experienced increases in potentially excess deaths from unintentional injury during 2010-2017, leading to a narrower gap between the already high (approximately 55%) percentage of excess deaths in noncore and micropolitan counties. PUBLIC HEALTH ACTION Routine tracking of potentially excess deaths by urban-rural county classification might help public health departments and decision-makers identify and monitor public health problems and focus interventions to reduce potentially excess deaths in these areas.

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Brigham A. Bastian

Papers

Leading Causes of Death in Nonmetropolitan and Metropolitan Areas- United States, 1999-2014.

Drugs Most Frequently Involved in Drug Overdose Deaths: United States, 2010-2014.

National Vital Statistics Reports: Drugs Most Frequently Involved in Drug Overdose Deaths: United States, 2011-2016

Drugs most frequently involved in drug overdose deaths: United States, 2011-2016

Potentially Excess Deaths from the Five Leading Causes of Death in Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Counties - United States, 2010-2017.