The study used the partial equilibrium WITS-SMART Simulation Model to assess the impact of liberalization under the Trade Development and Cooperation Agreement (TDCA) of a free trade area between the EU and South Africa. The findings of the study reveal that total trade effects in South Africa are likely to surge by US$1.036 billion with a total welfare valued at US$134 million. Dismantling tariffs on all EU goods would be beneficial to consumers through net trade creation. Total trade creation would be US$782 million. However, South African producers are likely to contribute a trade diversion of US$254 million which has a negative impact on consumer welfare. The country might also experience a revenue loss amounting to US$562 million due to the removal of tariffs. On trade, the country’s export and import to the EU is expected to increase by US$12.419 million and US$1.266 million respectively. To mitigate revenue loss, the country should try to diversify its current tax base.

Revenue, Welfare and Trade Effects of European Union Free Trade Agreement on South Africa

The facilitation of trade is a principal objective in the context of increasing regional trade integration for the achievement of sustainable development goals. The purpose of this study is to estimate the potential annual economic gain to be had from trade facilitation by the coastal countries of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). These measures would decrease border and documentary compliance time and costs of the administration of international trade. A partial equilibrium welfare economics framework is used that employs sets of export supply and import demand elasticities for each country that are derived using a general equilibrium estimation method. The annual economic welfare gains resulting from the reduction of excessive trade compliance costs for the region are estimated to between US$1.6 billion to US$2.7 billion (2019 prices). This is between 0.24% and 0.42% of the combined GDPs of these countries. The welfare gain is between 6% and 10% of the combined governments’ budgets assigned for education, and is between 33% and 58% of their budgets allocated for health. In the absence of reform, these inefficient practices waste an amount equal to between 15% and 26% of the annual net official development assistance these countries receive.

Trade Facilitation and Its Impacts on the Economic Welfare and Sustainable Development of the ECOWAS Region

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Political handbook of the world : governments and intergovernmental organizations

The article attempts to consider the impact of a customs union formed between two small countries embedded in the global economy and trading in intermediates, in terms of a general equilibrium framework. It shows that with such a union both countries will gain, although there will be asymmetric effect on wage inequality. However, with higher capital stock the significance of the formation of customs union will be undermined. It also shows that perfect international capital mobility will lead to finite changes in the economy, shutting down the less capital intensive unskilled export sector in each country, which in turn makes the bilateral union irrelevant. Further tariff reduction will increase inequality in both countries. We have also considered the welfare effects of formation of customs union in the form of tariff cut and such a tariff reduction unequivocally improves welfare of the customs union irrespective of small country and large country assumptions, without any intra-union income transfer. JEL Codes: F02, F11, F55, F68

Customs Union, Wage Inequality and Welfare in General Equilibrium

A partial equilibrium model was used to estimate the impact of a free trade agreement within ECOWAS on imports by Nigeria, based on trade data prior to implementation in 2015. Estimated trade creation for agro-processed goods was just more than double that for agricultural products, which may point towards increased competition for domestic value-added industries that are targeted for support by Nigeria’s industrial policy for diversification. The welfare gains for Nigeria are positive, despite the tariff revenue loss. The results of the model are upper-bound estimates because Nigeria still applies non-tariff barriers. When comparing the model results with actual trade trends since 2015, it is found that the increase in trade indeed takes place in the year after the implementation of the zero rating, but this increase in intra-ECOWAS trade is not maintained. In subsequent years, the trade levels appear to revert to pre-agreement levels.

C. Punt

Papers

The ECOWAS free trade area: an ex ante and ex post analysis of the impact on Nigeria's imports.