Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) are a significant burden on global economies and public health. Their emergence is thought to be driven largely by socio-economic, environmental and ecological factors, but no comparative study has explicitly analysed these linkages to understand global temporal and spatial patterns of EIDs. Here we analyse a database of 335 EID 'events' (origins of EIDs) between 1940 and 2004, and demonstrate non-random global patterns. EID events have risen significantly over time after controlling for reporting bias, with their peak incidence (in the 1980s) concomitant with the HIV pandemic. EID events are dominated by zoonoses (60.3% of EIDs): the majority of these (71.8%) originate in wildlife (for example, severe acute respiratory virus, Ebola virus), and are increasing significantly over time. We find that 54.3% of EID events are caused by bacteria or rickettsia, reflecting a large number of drug-resistant microbes in our database. Our results confirm that EID origins are significantly correlated with socio-economic, environmental and ecological factors, and provide a basis for identifying regions where new EIDs are most likely to originate (emerging disease 'hotspots'). They also reveal a substantial risk of wildlife zoonotic and vector-borne EIDs originating at lower latitudes where reporting effort is low. We conclude that global resources to counter disease emergence are poorly allocated, with the majority of the scientific and surveillance effort focused on countries from where the next important EID is least likely to originate.

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Global trends in emerging infectious diseases

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a complex disorder for which currently there is no accepted definition. Having a uniform standard for diagnosing and classifying AKI would enhance our ability to manage these patients. Future clinical and translational research in AKI will require collaborative networks of investigators drawn from various disciplines, dissemination of information via multidisciplinary joint conferences and publications, and improved translation of knowledge from pre-clinical research. We describe an initiative to develop uniform standards for defining and classifying AKI and to establish a forum for multidisciplinary interaction to improve care for patients with or at risk for AKI. Members representing key societies in critical care and nephrology along with additional experts in adult and pediatric AKI participated in a two day conference in Amsterdam, The Netherlands, in September 2005 and were assigned to one of three workgroups. Each group's discussions formed the basis for draft recommendations that were later refined and improved during discussion with the larger group. Dissenting opinions were also noted. The final draft recommendations were circulated to all participants and subsequently agreed upon as the consensus recommendations for this report. Participating societies endorsed the recommendations and agreed to help disseminate the results. The term AKI is proposed to represent the entire spectrum of acute renal failure. Diagnostic criteria for AKI are proposed based on acute alterations in serum creatinine or urine output. A staging system for AKI which reflects quantitative changes in serum creatinine and urine output has been developed. We describe the formation of a multidisciplinary collaborative network focused on AKI. We have proposed uniform standards for diagnosing and classifying AKI which will need to be validated in future studies. The Acute Kidney Injury Network offers a mechanism for proceeding with efforts to improve patient outcomes.

Acute Kidney Injury Network: report of an initiative to improve outcomes in acute kidney injury

Diagnostic Criteria of Nontuberculous Mycobacterial Lung Disease Key Laboratory Features of NTM Health Careand Hygiene-associated Disease Prevention Prophylaxis and Treatment of NTM Disease Introduction Methods Taxonomy Epidemiology Pathogenesis Host Defense and Immune Defects Pulmonary Disease Body Morphotype Tumor Necrosis Factor Inhibition Laboratory Procedures Collection, Digestion, Decontamination, and Staining of Specimens Respiratory Specimens Body Fluids, Abscesses, and Tissues Blood Specimen Processing Smear Microscopy Culture Techniques Incubation of NTM Cultures NTM Identification Antimicrobial Susceptibility Testing for NTM Molecular Typing Methods of NTM Clinical Presentations and Diagnostic Criteria Pulmonary Disease Cystic Fibrosis Hypersensitivity-like Disease Transplant Recipients Disseminated Disease Lymphatic Disease Skin, Soft Tissue, and Bone Disease

/pdf/an-official-ats-idsa-statement-diagnosis-treatment-and-1jy41yfwpp.pdf

An official ATS/IDSA statement: diagnosis, treatment, and prevention of nontuberculous mycobacterial diseases.

Background: The acute clinical events surrounding the acquisition of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) have not been well characterized. Objective: To further define the clinical and epidemiologic...

Clinical and epidemiologic features of primary HIV infection.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/mers/downloads/Isolation2007.pdf

2007 Guideline for Isolation Precautions: Preventing Transmission of Infectious Agents in Health Care Settings.

Background To stop tuberculosis (TB), the leading infectious cause of death globally, we need to better understand transmission risk factors. Although many studies have identified associations between individual-level covariates and pathogen genetic relatedness, few have identified characteristics of transmission pairs or explored how closely covariates associated with genetic relatedness mirror those associated with transmission. Methods We simulated a TB-like outbreak with pathogen genetic data and estimated odds ratios (ORs) to correlate each covariate and genetic relatedness. We used a naive Bayes approach to modify the genetic links and nonlinks to resemble the true links and nonlinks more closely and estimated modified ORs with this approach. We compared these two sets of ORs with the true ORs for transmission. Finally, we applied this method to TB data in Hamburg, Germany, and Massachusetts, USA, to find pair-level covariates associated with transmission. Results Using simulations, we found that associations between covariates and genetic relatedness had the same relative magnitudes and directions as the true associations with transmission, but biased absolute magnitudes. Modifying the genetic links and nonlinks reduced the bias and increased the confidence interval widths, more accurately capturing error. In Hamburg and Massachusetts, pairs were more likely to be probable transmission links if they lived in closer proximity, had a shorter time between observations, or had shared ethnicity, social risk factors, drug resistance, or genotypes. Conclusions We developed a method to improve the use of genetic relatedness as a proxy for transmission, and aid in understanding TB transmission dynamics in low-burden settings.

What Can Genetic Relatedness Tell Us About Risk Factors for Tuberculosis Transmission

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a leading infectious disease killer globally. Treatment outcomes are especially poor among people with extensively drug-resistant (XDR) TB, until recently defined as rifampicin-resistant (RR) TB with resistance to an aminoglycoside (amikacin) and a fluoroquinolone (ofloxacin). We used laboratory TB test results from Western Cape province, South Africa between 2012 and 2015 to identify XDR-TB and pre-XDR-TB (RR-TB with resistance to one second-line drug) spatial hotspots. We mapped the percentage and count of individuals with RR-TB that had XDR-TB and pre-XDR-TB across the province and in Cape Town, as well as amikacin-resistant and ofloxacin-resistant TB. We found the percentage of pre-XDR-TB and the count of XDR-TB/pre-XDR-TB highly heterogeneous with geographic hotspots within RR-TB high burden areas, and found hotspots in both percentage and count of amikacin-resistant and ofloxacin-resistant TB. The spatial distribution of percentage ofloxacin-resistant TB hotspots was similar to XDR-TB hotspots, suggesting that fluoroquinolone-resistace is often the first step to additional resistance. Our work shows that interventions used to reduce XDR-TB incidence may need to be targeted within spatial locations of RR-TB, and further research is required to understand underlying drivers of XDR-TB transmission in these locations. 

/pdf/spatial-heterogeneity-of-extensively-drug-resistant-1emul0as.pdf

Spatial heterogeneity of extensively drug resistant-tuberculosis in Western Cape Province, South Africa

We conducted a retrospective study of 2555 DR-TB patients admitted to treatment between 2010 and 2016 in six geopolitical zones in Nigeria. We characterized the gender distribution of DR-TB cases and the association between demographics and clinical data, such as age, treatment category, number of previous TB treatment cycles, and geopolitical zone, with gender. The independent effects of being a male or female DR-TB patient were determined using bivariate and multivariate analyzes with statistical significance of p < 0.05 and a 95% confidence interval. Records from a total of 2555 DR-TB patients were examined for the study. A majority were male (66.9%), largest age-group was 30–39 years old (35.8%), most had MDR-TB (61.4%), were HIV-negative (76.6%), and previously treated for TB (77.1%). The southwest treatment zone had the highest proportion of DR-TB patients (36.9%), and most DR-TB diagnoses occurred in 2016 (36.9%). On bivariate analysis, age, HIV status, treatment zone, and clinical patient group in DR-TB were significantly associated with male gender. On multivariate analysis, males aged 20–29 years (AOR: 0.19, 95% CI: 0.33–0.59, p = 0.001) and HIV-positive males (AOR: 0.44, 95% CI: 0.33–0.59, p = 0.001) had lower likelihood of MDR-TB as males in the south–south treatment zone (AOR: 1.88, 95% CI: 1.23–2.85, p = 0.03), and being male and aged ≥60 years (AOR: 2.19, 95% CI: 1.05–4.54, p = 0.036) increased the probability of DR-TB. The older male population from south–southern Nigeria and women of childbearing age had lower incidence of DR-TB than men of the same age. Tailored interventions to reduce HIV and DR-TB prevalence in the general population, particularly among women of childbearing potential, and treatment support for young and older men are relevant strategies to reduce DR-TB in Nigeria.

https://www.mdpi.com/2414-6366/8/2/104/pdf?version=1675686282

C. Robert Horsburgh

Papers

What Can Genetic Relatedness Tell Us About Risk Factors for Tuberculosis Transmission

Spatial heterogeneity of extensively drug resistant-tuberculosis in Western Cape Province, South Africa

Gender and Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis in Nigeria

MDR-TB in children: back to the basics.

M. tuberculosis infection before, during and after pregnancy.