Background

Leptospirosis, a spirochaetal zoonosis, occurs in diverse epidemiological settings and affects vulnerable populations, such as rural subsistence farmers and urban slum dwellers. Although leptospirosis is a life-threatening disease and recognized as an important cause of pulmonary haemorrhage syndrome, the lack of global estimates for morbidity and mortality has contributed to its neglected disease status.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We conducted a systematic review of published morbidity and mortality studies and databases to extract information on disease incidence and case fatality ratios. Linear regression and Monte Carlo modelling were used to obtain age and gender-adjusted estimates of disease morbidity for countries and Global Burden of Disease (GBD) and WHO regions. We estimated mortality using models that incorporated age and gender-adjusted disease morbidity and case fatality ratios. The review identified 80 studies on disease incidence from 34 countries that met quality criteria. In certain regions, such as Africa, few quality assured studies were identified. The regression model, which incorporated country-specific variables of population structure, life expectancy at birth, distance from the equator, tropical island, and urbanization, accounted for a significant proportion (R2 = 0.60) of the variation in observed disease incidence. We estimate that there were annually 1.03 million cases (95% CI 434,000–1,750,000) and 58,900 deaths (95% CI 23,800–95,900) due to leptospirosis worldwide. A large proportion of cases (48%, 95% CI 40–61%) and deaths (42%, 95% CI 34–53%) were estimated to occur in adult males with age of 20–49 years. Highest estimates of disease morbidity and mortality were observed in GBD regions of South and Southeast Asia, Oceania, Caribbean, Andean, Central, and Tropical Latin America, and East Sub-Saharan Africa.

Conclusions/Significance

Leptospirosis is among the leading zoonotic causes of morbidity worldwide and accounts for numbers of deaths, which approach or exceed those for other causes of haemorrhagic fever. Highest morbidity and mortality were estimated to occur in resource-poor countries, which include regions where the burden of leptospirosis has been underappreciated

/pdf/global-morbidity-and-mortality-of-leptospirosis-a-systematic-ov8xsixmek.pdf

Global Morbidity and Mortality of Leptospirosis: A Systematic Review.

Walker's Mammals of the World, 4th Edition, Ronald M. Nowak, John L. Paradiso. The Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, Maryland (1983), 1xi, +1-568 (Vol. I), xxv+569-1362 (Vol. II). Price $65.00

Zoonotic spillover, which is the transmission of a pathogen from a vertebrate animal to a human, presents a global public health burden but is a poorly understood phenomenon. Zoonotic spillover requires several factors to align, including the ecological, epidemiological and behavioural determinants of pathogen exposure, and the within-human factors that affect susceptibility to infection. In this Opinion article, we propose a synthetic framework for animal-to-human transmission that integrates the relevant mechanisms. This framework reveals that all zoonotic pathogens must overcome a hierarchical series of barriers to cause spillover infections in humans. Understanding how these barriers are functionally and quantitatively linked, and how they interact in space and time, will substantially improve our ability to predict or prevent spillover events. This work provides a foundation for transdisciplinary investigation of spillover and synthetic theory on zoonotic transmission.

/pdf/pathways-to-zoonotic-spillover-5230h7thxs.pdf

Pathways to zoonotic spillover

The clinical outcomes associated with Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Americas have been well documented, but other aspects of the pandemic, such as attack rates and risk factors, are poorly understood. We prospectively followed a cohort of 1453 urban residents in Salvador, Brazil, and, using an assay that measured immunoglobulin G3 (IgG3) responses against ZIKV NS1 antigen, we estimated that 73% of individuals were infected during the 2015 outbreak. Attack rates were spatially heterogeneous, varying by a factor of 3 within a community spanning 0.17 square kilometers. Preexisting high antibody titers to dengue virus were associated with reduced risk of ZIKV infection and symptoms. The landscape of ZIKV immunity that now exists may affect the risk for future transmission.

/pdf/impact-of-preexisting-dengue-immunity-on-zika-virus-5cg2bakspc.pdf

Impact of preexisting dengue immunity on Zika virus emergence in a dengue endemic region

Rat-borne leptospirosis is an emerging zoonotic disease in urban slum settlements for which there are no adequate control measures. The challenge in elucidating risk factors and informing approaches for prevention is the complex and heterogeneous environment within slums, which vary at fine spatial scales and influence transmission of the bacterial agent.

/pdf/spatiotemporal-determinants-of-urban-leptospirosis-545ez0l2ib.pdf

Spatiotemporal Determinants of Urban Leptospirosis Transmission: Four-Year Prospective Cohort Study of Slum Residents in Brazil

BACKGROUND: The Norway rat (Rattus norvegicus) is the principal reservoir for leptospirosis in many urban settings. Few studies have identified markers for rat infestation in slum environments while none have evaluated the association between household rat infestation and Leptospira infection in humans or the use of infestation markers as a predictive model to stratify risk for leptospirosis. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We enrolled a cohort of 2,003 urban slum residents from Salvador, Brazil in 2004, and followed the cohort during four annual serosurveys to identify serologic evidence for Leptospira infection. In 2007, we performed rodent infestation and environmental surveys of 80 case households, in which resided at least one individual with Leptospira infection, and 109 control households. In the case-control study, signs of rodent infestation were identified in 78% and 42% of the households, respectively. Regression modeling identified the presence of R. norvegicus feces (OR, 4.95; 95% CI, 2.13-11.47), rodent burrows (2.80; 1.06-7.36), access to water (2.79; 1.28-6.09), and un-plastered walls (2.71; 1.21-6.04) as independent risk factors associated with Leptospira infection in a household. We developed a predictive model for infection, based on assigning scores to each of the rodent infestation risk factors. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis found that the prediction score produced a good/excellent fit based on an area under the curve of 0.78 (0.71-0.84). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our study found that a high proportion of slum households were infested with R. norvegicus and that rat infestation was significantly associated with the risk of Leptospira infection, indicating that high level transmission occurs among slum households. We developed an easily applicable prediction score based on rat infestation markers, which identified households with highest infection risk. The use of the prediction score in community-based screening may therefore be an effective risk stratification strategy for targeting control measures in slum settings of high leptospirosis transmission.

https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/10441/2/Costa%20F%20Influence....pdf

Influence of household rat infestation on leptospira transmission in the urban slum environment.

Domestic rats are the principal reservoir for urban leptospirosis. However, few studies have identified infestation markers in slums and evaluated their predictivity for leptospirosis risk. We compared households with leptospirosis cases in Salvador, Brazil between 2007 and 2009 and their neighbors using a case control design, surveying for rodent infestation signs and environmental characteristics. With the 2007–2008 data, a conditional logistic regression modeling identified the peridomiciliar presence of rodent burrows (OR, 3.30; 95% CI, 1.50–7.26), rat feces (2.86; 1.24–6.59), runs (2.57; 1.06–6.22), households bordering abandoned houses (2.48; 1.04–6.02), and unplastered walls (2.22; 1.02–6.02) as risk factors and developed a predictive score for leptospirosis. With an independent data set from 2009, a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis evaluated the prediction score performance, with the area under the curve being 0.70 (95% CI, 0.64–0.76) for score development and 0.71 (0.65–0.79) for validation. Results indicate that high proportions of urban slum households are infested with R. norvegicus. The score performed well when identifying high-risk households within slums. These findings need confirmation in other urban centers, but suggest that community-based screening for rodent infestation can allow to target rodent and environmental control measures in populations at highest risk for leptospirosis.

/pdf/household-rat-infestation-in-urban-slum-populations-2yjdmakq69.pdf

Carlos Santana

Papers

Influence of household rat infestation on leptospira transmission in the urban slum environment.

Household rat infestation in urban slum populations: Development and validation of a predictive score for leptospirosis.