Short-term metro passenger flow forecasting is an essential component of intelligent transportation systems (ITS) and can be applied to optimize the passenger flow organization of a station and offer data support for metro passenger flow early warning and system management. LSTM neural networks have recently achieved remarkable recent in the field of natural language processing (NLP) because they are well suited for learning from experience to predict time series. For this purpose, we propose an empirical mode decomposition (EMD)-based long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network model for predicting short-term metro inbound passenger flow. The EMD algorithm decomposes the original sequential passenger flow into several intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and a residual. Selected IMFs that are strongly correlated with the original data can be obtained via feature selection. The selected IMFs and the original data are integrated into inputs for LSTM neural networks, and a single LSTM prediction model and an EMD-LSTM hybrid forecasting model are developed. Finally, historical real automatic fare collection (AFC) data from metro passengers are collected from Chengdu Metro to verify the validity of the proposed EMD-LSTM prediction model. The results indicate that the proposed EMD-LSTM hybrid forecasting model outperforms the LSTM, ARIMA and BPN models.

/pdf/empirical-mode-decomposition-based-long-short-term-memory-13h7tl3hoa.pdf

Empirical mode decomposition based long short-term memory neural network forecasting model for the short-term metro passenger flow.

Building data-driven intelligent transportation is a significant task for establishing data-centric smart cities, and exceptionally efficient and accurate traffic flow prediction (TFP) is a crucial technology in constructing intelligent transportation systems (ITSs). To address the computation and storage problems of processing traffic flow big data with the centralized model on a traditional mining platform, we propose a distributed long short-term memory weighted model combined with a time window and normal distribution based on a MapReduce parallel processing framework in this paper, named as WND-LSTM. More specifically, under the Hadoop distributed computing platform, a distributed modeling framework of forecasting traffic flow on MapReduce is developed to solve the existing issues of storage and calculation in handling large-scale traffic flow data with the stand-alone learning model. Moreover, a distributed WND-LSTM model is presented on the MapReduce-based distributed modeling framework to enhance the accuracy, efficiency, and scalability of short-term TFP. Finally, we forecast the traffic flow on the Sanlihe East Road of Beijing in China using the proposed WND-LSTM model with the real-world taxi trajectory big data. In particular, the extensively experimental results from a case study demonstrate that the MAPE value of WND-LSTM is 88.48%, 65.79%, 70.46%, 68.21%, 66.95%, 68.43%, and 70.41% lower than that of the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), logistical regression (LR), support vector regression (SVR), k-nearest neighbor (KNN), stacked autoencoders (SAEs), gated recurrent unit (GRU), and long short-term memory (LSTM), respectively, and achieves 71.25% accuracy improvement on average.

A distributed WND-LSTM model on MapReduce for short-term traffic flow prediction

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0253868&type=printable

Human trajectory prediction and generation using LSTM models and GANs

Machine learning‐based traffic scheduling techniques for intelligent transportation system: Opportunities and challenges

Short-term prediction of traffic flow is essential for the deployment of intelligent transportation systems. In this paper we present an efficient method for short-term traffic flow prediction usin...

Support Vector Machine for Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction and Improvement of Its Model Training using Nearest Neighbor Approach:

Accurate short-term traffic flow prediction plays an indispensable role for solving traffic congestion. However, the structure of traffic data is nonlinear and complicated. It is a challenge to get high precision. The least square support vector machine (LSSVM) has powerful capabilities for time series and nonlinear regression prediction problems if it can select appropriate parameters. To search the optimal parameters of LSSVM, this paper proposes a hybrid optimization algorithm which combines particle swarm optimization (PSO) with genetic algorithm. The main contributions are twofold: (1) A hybrid optimization method is proposed, which can skip the local optimal pitfall with less learning time by introducing a selection strategy, crossover and mutation operators into PSO; (2) the crossover and mutation operators are controlled by adaptive probability functions. The crossover and mutation probabilities increase when the population fitness is concentrated, and decrease when the fitness is dispersed. It can effectively improve the precision and speed of convergence. The proposed model is verified based on the measured data. The experimental results show that our new model yields better prediction ability and relatively high computational efficiency compared with other related models.

Chuan Luo

Papers

Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction Based on Least Square Support Vector Machine with Hybrid Optimization Algorithm