Predicting differential habitat suitability of Rhodomyrtus tomentosa under current and future climate scenarios in China

Abstract Castanea henryi, with edible nuts and timber value, is a key tree species playing essential roles in China's subtropical forest ecosystems. However, natural and human perturbations have nearly depleted its wild populations. The study identified the dominant environmental variables enabling and limiting its distribution and predicted its suitable habitats and distribution. The 212 occurrence records covering the whole distribution range of C. henryi in China and nine main bioclimatic variables were selected for detailed analysis. We applied the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) and QGIS to predict potentially suitable habitats under the current and four future climate‐change scenarios. The limiting factors for distribution were accessed by Jackknife, percent contribution, and permutation importance. We found that the current distribution areas were concentrated in the typical subtropical zone, mainly Central and South China provinces. The modeling results indicated temperature as the critical determinant of distribution patterns, including mean temperature of the coldest quarter, isothermality, and mean diurnal range. Winter low temperature imposed an effective constraint on its spread. Moisture served as a secondary factor in species distribution, involving precipitation seasonality and annual precipitation. Under future climate‐change scenarios, excellent habitats would expand and shift northwards, whereas range contraction would occur on the southern edge. Extreme climate change could bring notable range shrinkage. This study provided a basis for protecting the species' germplasm resources. The findings could guide the management, cultivation, and conservation of C. henryi, assisted by a proposed three‐domain operation framework: preservation areas, loss areas, and new areas, each to be implemented using tailor‐made strategies.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1002/ece3.9597

Effects of climate‐change scenarios on the distribution patterns of Castanea henryi

Catalpa bungei C. A. Mey. (C. bungei) is one of the recommended native species for ecological management in China. It is a fast-growing tree of high economic and ecological importance, but its rare resources, caused by anthropogenic destruction and local climatic degradation, have not satisfied the requirements. It has been widely recommended for large-scale afforestation of ecological management and gradually increasing in recent years, but the impact mechanism of climate change on its growth has not been studied yet. Studying the response of species to climate change is an important part of national afforestation planning. Based on combinations of climate, topography, soil variables, and the multiple model ensemble (MME) of CMIP6, this study explored the relationship between C. bungei and climate change, then constructed Maxent to predict its potential distribution under SSP126 and SSP585 and analyzed its dominant environmental factors. The results showed that C. bungei is widely distributed in Henan, Hebei, Hubei, Anhui, Jiangsu, and Shaanxi provinces and others where it covers an area of 2.96 × 106 km2. Under SSP126 and SSP585, its overall habitat area will increase by more than 14.2% in 2080–2100, which mainly indicates the transformation of unsuitable areas into low suitable areas. The center of its distribution will migrate to the north with a longer distance under SSP585 than that under SSP126, and it will transfer from the junction of Shaanxi and Hubei province to the north of Shaanxi province under SSP585 by 2100. In that case, C. bungei shows a large-area degradation trend in the south of the Yangtze River Basin but better suitability in the north of the Yellow River Basin, such as the Northeast Plain, the Tianshan Mountains, the Loess Plateau, and others. Temperature factors have the greatest impact on the distribution of C. bungei. It is mainly affected by the mean temperature of the coldest quarter, followed by precipitation of the wettest month, mean diurnal range, and precipitation of the coldest quarter. Our results hence demonstrate that the increase of the mean temperature of the coldest quarter becomes the main reason for its degradation, which simultaneously means a larger habitat boundary in Northeast China. The findings provide scientific evidence for the ecological restoration and sustainable development of C. bungei in China.

https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/13/1/96/pdf?version=1641824673

The Current and Future Potential Geographical Distribution and Evolution Process of Catalpa bungei in China

Can Urban Green Space Cure Homesickness? Case study on China Poverty Alleviation Migrants in Anshun, Guizhou

Inclusion of Ecological Water Requirements in Optimization of Water Resource Allocation Under Changing Climatic Conditions

Jacaranda mimosifolia is regarded as a prized ornamental tree in the urban landscape with attractive, abundant and long-lasting violet-colored flowers and graceful tree form. It has been widely cultivated in recent years in many Chinese cities. However, the lack of scientific and practical guidance to cultivate the exotic species has brought about planting failures in some areas, incurring substantial economic losses and landscape decline. A comprehensive understanding of the current spatial pattern and climatic conditions of J. mimosifolia in China can inform species choice, planting and management. We collected data on the geographical coordinates of 257 planting cities and acquired additional information from the literature and field surveys. The limiting factors for cultivation were investigated using principal component analysis (PCA) of 19 bioclimatic parameters of the sampled sites. The potentially suitable habitats were predicted by BIOCLIM modeling using eight selected ecological-important climatic parameters. We found that the present cultivated areas were focused in the low-altitude parts of the subtropical zone, mainly covering the provinces of Yunnan, Sichuan, Guangxi, Guangdong and Fujian. The PCA results indicated that temperature was the clinching determinant of the current cultivation patterns, especially annual mean temperature, the minimum temperature of the coldest month and the mean temperature of the warmest quarter. Moisture was a necessary but not critical secondary factor. The predicting model for potential habitats was graded as “excellent” by objective validation measures. The findings can provide science-based evidence to plan the expansion of the biogeographical range of cultivation into hitherto unplanted cities and rationalize urban tree introduction and management practices.

https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/12/7/951/pdf

Bioclimatic Suitability of Actual and Potential Cultivation Areas for Jacaranda mimosifolia in Chinese Cities

Resettlement residential areas (RRAs) are a unique product of China’s urbanisation process. Their greening environment is critical to the quality of life and liveable green neighbourhood of the displaced farmers. Our study aimed to (1) interpret the species composition of the landscape trees and their contributions to urban biodiversity in RRAs, and (2) elucidate the structural changes in the tree composition in the last 20 years. Twenty selected RRAs in Changzhou, Jiangsu Province, China, were divided into three categories by completion year. We assessed tree species composition, floristic diversity, tree dimensions, importance value, RRA characteristics, and greening management. The sampled sites accommodated 741 stems and 52 species belonging to 25 families. The three most abundant species were Cinnamomum camphora, Osmanthus fragrans, and Magnolia grandiflora, constituting 45.75% of all trees. The importance values revealed a changing tree planting pattern over time, with persistent domination by a few species. The oldest sites did not harbour the largest trees due to long-term mismanagement and mistreatment by residents. Compared with other housing types and cities, the tree count, importance value, and diversity in RRAs were low. The species diversity was not correlated with RRA completion time, distance from the city centre, and RRA area. The trees were in poor shape with limited trunk diameter and tree height and suffered from frequent and drastic pruning. Residents with lingering farmer mentality commonly exploited the vegetation and green spaces indiscriminately as natural resources. The greenery management could be overhauled by increasing tree number, native species, species diversity, and tree-care quality and engaging residents in a collaborative and participatory mode for a joint maintenance endeavour. The findings offer a scientific basis to improve or design RRA green spaces.

https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/12/6/766/pdf

Chunping Xie

Papers

Predicting differential habitat suitability of Rhodomyrtus tomentosa under current and future climate scenarios in China

Bioclimatic Suitability of Actual and Potential Cultivation Areas for Jacaranda mimosifolia in Chinese Cities

Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Tree Diversity and Distribution in Urban Resettlement Areas for Displaced Farmers