https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf

The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?

The growth of precarious work since the 1970s has emerged as a core contemporary concern within politics, in the media, and among researchers. Uncertain and unpredictable work contrasts with the re...

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Precarious Work, Insecure Workers: Employment Relations in Transition

A central organizing framework of the voluminous recent literature studying changes in the returns to skills and the evolution of earnings inequality is what we refer to as the canonical model, which elegantly and powerfully operationalizes the supply and demand for skills by assuming two distinct skill groups that perform two different and imperfectly substitutable tasks or produce two imperfectly substitutable goods. Technology is assumed to take a factor-augmenting form, which, by complementing either high or low skill workers, can generate skill biased demand shifts. In this paper, we argue that despite its notable successes, the canonical model is largely silent on a number of central empirical developments of the last three decades, including: ( 1 ) significant declines in real wages of low skill workers, particularly low skill males; ( 2 ) non-monotone changes in wages at different parts of the earnings distribution during different decades; ( 3 ) broad-based increases in employment in high skill and low skill occupations relative to middle skilled occupations (i.e., job “polarization’’); ( 4 ) rapid diffusion of new technologies that directly substitute capital for labor in tasks previously performed by moderately skilled workers; and ( 5 ) expanding offshoring in opportunities, enabled by technology, which allow foreign labor to substitute for domestic workers specific tasks. Motivated by these patterns, we argue that it is valuable to consider a richer framework for analyzing how recent changes in the earnings and employment distribution in the United States and other advanced economies are shaped by the interactions among worker skills, job tasks, evolving technologies, and shifting trading opportunities. We propose a tractable task-based model in which the assignment of skills to tasks is endogenous and technical change may involve the substitution of machines for certain tasks previously performed by labor. We further consider how the evolution of technology in this task-based setting may be endogenized. We show how such a framework can be used to interpret several central recent trends, and we also suggest further directions for empirical exploration.

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Skills, Tasks and Technologies: Implications for Employment and Earnings

We offer an integrated explanation and empirical analysis of the polarization of U.S. employment and wages between 1980 and 2005, and the concurrent growth of low skill service occupations. We attribute polarization to the interaction between consumer preferences, which favor variety over specialization, and the falling cost of automating routine, codifiable job tasks. Applying a spatial equilibrium model, we derive, test, and confirm four implications of this hypothesis. Local labor markets that were specialized in routine activities differentially adopted information technology, reallocated low skill labor into service occupations (employment polarization), experienced earnings growth at the tails of the distribution (wage polarization), and received inflows of skilled labor.

/pdf/the-growth-of-low-skill-service-jobs-and-the-polarization-of-4vz9jfrws6.pdf

The Growth of Low-Skill Service Jobs and the Polarization of the US Labor Market

The role of improved schooling, a central part of most development strategies, has become controversial because expansion of school attainment has not guaranteed improved economic conditions. This paper reviews the role of cognitive skills in promoting economic well-being, with a particular focus on the role of school quality and quantity. It concludes that there is strong evidence that the cognitive skills of the population – rather than mere school attainment – are powerfully related to individual earnings, to the distribution of income, and to economic growth. New empirical results show the importance of both minimal and high level skills, the complementarity of skills and quality of economic institutions, and robustness of the relationship between skills and growth. International comparisons incorporating expanded data on cognitive skills reveal much larger skill deficits in developing countries than generally derived from just school enrollment and attainment. The magnitude of change needed makes clear that closing the economic gap with developed countries will require major structural changes in schooling institutions.

The role of cognitive skills in economic development

* Introduction Part I: Economic Growth and Distribution * The Human Capital Century * Inequality across the Twentieth Century * Skill-biased Technological Change Part II: Education for the Masses in Three Transformations * The Origins of the Virtues * Economic Foundations of the High School Movement * America's Graduation from High School * Mass Higher Education in the Twentieth Century Part III. The Race * The Race between Education and Technology * How America Once Led and Can Win the Race for Tomorrow * Appendix A * Appendix B * Appendix C * Appendix D * Notes * References * A Note on Sources * Acknowledgments * Index

Claudia Dale Goldin

Papers

The race between education and technology