Background— The global burden of atrial fibrillation (AF) is unknown. Methods and Results— We systematically reviewed population-based studies of AF published from 1980 to 2010 from the 21 Global Burden of Disease regions to estimate global/regional prevalence, incidence, and morbidity and mortality related to AF (DisModMR software). Of 377 potential studies identified, 184 met prespecified eligibility criteria. The estimated number of individuals with AF globally in 2010 was 33.5 million (20.9 million men [95% uncertainty interval (UI), 19.5–22.2 million] and 12.6 million women [95% UI, 12.0–13.7 million]). Burden associated with AF, measured as disability-adjusted life-years, increased by 18.8% (95% UI, 15.8–19.3) in men and 18.9% (95% UI, 15.8–23.5) in women from 1990 to 2010. In 1990, the estimated age-adjusted prevalence rates of AF (per 100 000 population) were 569.5 in men (95% UI, 532.8–612.7) and 359.9 in women (95% UI, 334.7–392.6); the estimated age-adjusted incidence rates were 60.7 per 100 000 person-years in men (95% UI, 49.2–78.5) and 43.8 in women (95% UI, 35.9–55.0). In 2010, the prevalence rates increased to 596.2 (95% UI, 558.4–636.7) in men and 373.1 (95% UI, 347.9–402.2) in women; the incidence rates increased to 77.5 (95% UI, 65.2–95.4) in men and 59.5 (95% UI, 49.9–74.9) in women. Mortality associated with AF was higher in women and increased by 2-fold (95% UI, 2.0–2.2) and 1.9-fold (95% UI, 1.8–2.0) in men and women, respectively, from 1990 to 2010. There was evidence of significant regional heterogeneity in AF estimations and availability of population-based data. Conclusions— These findings provide evidence of progressive increases in overall burden, incidence, prevalence, and AF-associated mortality between 1990 and 2010, with significant public health implications. Systematic, regional surveillance of AF is required to better direct prevention and treatment strategies.

Worldwide Epidemiology of Atrial Fibrillation: A Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study

Background— Limited data exist on trends in incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF). We assessed the community-based trends in AF incidence for 1980 to 2000 and provided prevalence projections to 2050. Methods and Results— The adult residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota, who had ECG-confirmed first AF in the period 1980 to 2000 (n=4618) were identified. Trends in age-adjusted incidence were determined and used to construct model-based prevalence estimates. The age- and sex-adjusted incidence of AF per 1000 person-years was 3.04 (95% CI, 2.78 to 3.31) in 1980 and 3.68 (95% CI, 3.42 to 3.95) in 2000. According to Poisson regression with adjustment for age and sex, incidence of AF increased significantly (P=0.014), with a relative increase of 12.6% (95% CI, 2.1 to 23.1) over 21 years. The increase in age-adjusted AF incidence did not differ between men and women (P=0.84). According to the US population projections by the US Census Bureau, the number of persons with AF is projected to be 12.1 million by 2050, ...

Secular Trends in Incidence of Atrial Fibrillation in Olmsted County, Minnesota, 1980 to 2000, and Implications on the Projections for Future Prevalence

A population-based study of the long-term risks associated with atrial fibrillation: 20-year follow-up of the Renfrew/Paisley study.

Background— Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is associated with recurrent atrial fibrillation (AF) after electrocardioversion. OSA is highly prevalent in patients who are male, obese, and/or hypertens...

Association of Atrial Fibrillation and Obstructive Sleep Apnea

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common arrhythmia (estimated lifetime risk, 22%-26%). The aim of this article is to review the clinical epidemiological features of AF and to relate them to underlying mechanisms. Long-established risk factors for AF include aging, male sex, hypertension, valve disease, left ventricular dysfunction, obesity, and alcohol consumption. Emerging risk factors include prehypertension, increased pulse pressure, obstructive sleep apnea, high-level physical training, diastolic dysfunction, predisposing gene variants, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, and congenital heart disease. Potential risk factors are coronary artery disease, kidney disease, systemic inflammation, pericardial fat, and tobacco use. AF has substantial population health consequences, including impaired quality of life, increased hospitalization rates, stroke occurrence, and increased medical costs. The pathophysiology of AF centers around 4 general types of disturbances that promote ectopic firing and reentrant mechanisms, and include the following: (1) ion channel dysfunction, (2) Ca(2+)-handling abnormalities, (3) structural remodeling, and (4) autonomic neural dysregulation. Aging, hypertension, valve disease, heart failure, myocardial infarction, obesity, smoking, diabetes mellitus, thyroid dysfunction, and endurance exercise training all cause structural remodeling. Heart failure and prior atrial infarction also cause Ca(2+)-handling abnormalities that lead to focal ectopic firing via delayed afterdepolarizations/triggered activity. Neural dysregulation is central to atrial arrhythmogenesis associated with endurance exercise training and occlusive coronary artery disease. Monogenic causes of AF typically promote the arrhythmia via ion channel dysfunction, but the mechanisms of the more common polygenic risk factors are still poorly understood and under intense investigation. Better recognition of the clinical epidemiology of AF, as well as an improved appreciation of the underlying mechanisms, is needed to develop improved methods for AF prevention and management.

The Clinical Profile and Pathophysiology of Atrial Fibrillation Relationships Among Clinical Features, Epidemiology, and Mechanisms

Background The impact of atrial fibrillation (AF) on mortality, stroke, and medical costs is unknown. Methods We conducted a prospective cohort study of hospitalized Medicare patients with AF and 1 other cardiovascular diagnosis (CVD) compared with a matched group without AF (n=26753), randomly selected in 6 age-sex strata from 1989 MedPAR files of more than 1 million patients diagnosed as having AF. Stroke rates were also determined in another cohort free of CVD (n=14267). Total medical costs after hospitalization were available from a 1991 cohort. Cumulative mortality, stroke rates, and costs following index admission were adjusted by multivariate and proportional hazard regression analyses. Results Mortality rates were high in individuals with CVD, ranging from 19.0% to 52.1% in 1 year. Adjusted relative mortality risk was approximately 20% higher in patients with AF in all age-sex strata during each of the 3 years studied ( P P P Conclusion Prevention of AF and treatment of patients with AF and associated CVD may yield benefits in reduced mortality and stroke as well as reducing health care costs.

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Colin S. Baker

Papers

Impact of Atrial Fibrillation on Mortality, Stroke, and Medical Costs

Increased mortality, stroke and medical costs imposed by atrial fibrillation