Foresight can be described as the articulation of possible futures. It has a range of applications and is used with different methods, for different objectives and in different settings. Yet, anticipation in science and technology is not limited to foresight, but occurs in many more informal ways. This paper investigates the phenomenon that socio-technical developments are saturated with formal and informal anticipations and discusses the implications of this condition for foresight. The range of foresight studies is reviewed as well as the main results of the sociology of expectations, which studies the informal production and circulation of expectations in science and technology. Finally, three generic lessons from the sociology of expectations are derived, and it is discussed how these support or limit the ambitions of foresight.

Navigating foresight in a sea of expectations: lessons from the sociology of expectations

Scenario planning in public policy: Understanding use, impacts and the role of institutional context factors

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Strategic foresight in public policy: Reviewing the experiences of the UK, Singapore, and the Netherlands

Foresight has evolved as a distinct prospective analytical tool: it considers alternative futures of various ST as well as sectoral perspectives; and various policy domains, beyond science, technology and innovation (STI) policies. In spite of this apparent success, the perspectives for the future use and impacts of foresight are far from clear. The notion of ‘hype–disappointment cycles’, originally developed to describe the patterns of attention paid to emerging technologies, might be applicable to foresight, too: initial enthusiasm has already given way to a significant deal of scepticism in several countries. Clearly, a strong need is emerging for a more realistic assessment of the strengths and the weaknesses of various types of prospective analyses. There are two main reasons for this approach: 1. Embedding foresight in the decision-making pro

The impact of foresight on innovation policy-making: recent experiences and future perspectives

Quantitative and qualitative approaches in Future-oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): From combination to integration?

The paper presents recent insights from the ongoing FORLEARN project, which aims to develop Foresight theory and practise by supporting the sharing of experience (‘mutual learning’) in Europe. Six functions of Foresight for policy-making are elaborated on: (1) Informing policy: generating insights regarding the dynamics of change, future challenges and options, along with new ideas, and transmitting them to policymakers as an input to policy conceptualisation and design. (2) Facilitating policy implementation: enhancing the capacity for change within a given policy field by building a common awareness of the current situation and future challenges, as well as new networks and visions among stakeholders. (3) Embedding participation in policy-making: facilitating the participation of civil society in the policy-making process, thereby improving its transparency and legitimacy. (4) Supporting policy definition: jointly translating outcomes from the collective process into specific options for policy...

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Cristiano Cagnin

Papers

The impact of foresight on policy-making: insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process