The possible responses of ecosystem processes to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change are illustrated using six dynamic global vegetation models that explicitly represent the interactions of ecosystem carbon and water exchanges with vegetation dynamics. The models are driven by the IPCC IS92a scenario of rising CO2 (Wigley et al. 1991), and by climate changes resulting from effective CO2 concentrations corresponding to IS92a, simulated by the coupled ocean atmosphere model HadCM2-SUL. Simulations with changing CO2 alone show a widely distributed terrestrial carbon sink of 1.4‐3.8 Pg C y ‐1 during the 1990s, rising to 3.7‐8.6 Pg C y ‐1 a century later. Simulations including climate change show a reduced sink both today (0.6‐ 3.0 Pg C y ‐1 ) and a century later (0.3‐6.6 Pg C y ‐1 ) as a result of the impacts of climate change on NEP of tropical and southern hemisphere ecosystems. In all models, the rate of increase of NEP begins to level off around 2030 as a consequence of the ‘diminishing return’ of physiological CO2 effects at high CO2 concentrations. Four out of the six models show a further, climate-induced decline in NEP resulting from increased heterotrophic respiration and declining tropical NPP after 2050. Changes in vegetation structure influence the magnitude and spatial pattern of the carbon sink and, in combination with changing climate, also freshwater availability (runoff). It is shown that these changes, once set in motion, would continue to evolve for at least a century even if atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate could be instantaneously stabilized. The results should be considered illustrative in the sense that the choice of CO2 concentration scenario was arbitrary and only one climate model scenario was used. However, the results serve to indicate a range of possible biospheric responses to CO2 and climate change. They reveal major uncertainties about the response of NEP to climate

Global response of terrestrial ecosystem structure and function to CO2 and climate change: results from six dynamic global vegetation models

Global tropospheric ozone distributions, budgets, and radiative forcings from an ensemble of 26 state-of-the-art atmospheric chemistry models have been intercompared and synthesized as part of a wider study into both the air quality and climate roles of ozone. Results from three 2030 emissions scenarios, broadly representing optimistic, likely, and pessimistic options, are compared to a base year 2000 simulation. This base case realistically represents the current global distribution of tropospheric ozone. A further set of simulations considers the influence of climate change over the same time period by forcing the central emissions scenario with a surface warming of around 0.7K. The use of a large multimodel ensemble allows us to identify key areas of uncertainty and improves the robustness of the results. Ensemble mean changes in tropospheric ozone burden between 2000 and 2030 for the 3 scenarios range from a 5% decrease, through a 6% increase, to a 15% increase. The intermodel uncertainty (±1 standard deviation) associated with these values is about ±25%. Model outliers have no significant influence on the ensemble mean results. Combining ozone and methane changes, the three scenarios produce radiative forcings of -50, 180, and 300 mW m-2, compared to a CO 2 forcing over the same time period of 800-1100 mW m-2. These values indicate the importance of air pollution emissions in short- to medium-term climate forcing and the potential for stringent/lax control measures to improve/worsen future climate forcing. The model sensitivity of ozone to imposed climate change varies between models but modulates zonal mean mixing ratios by ±5 ppbv via a variety of feedback mechanisms, in particular those involving water vapor and stratosphere-troposphere exchange. This level of climate change also reduces the methane lifetime by around 4%. The ensemble mean year 2000 tropospheric ozone budget indicates chemical production, chemical destruction, dry deposition and stratospheric input fluxes of 5100, 4650, 1000 and 550 Tg(O 3 ) yr-1, respectively. These values are significantly different to the mean budget documented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report (TAR). The mean ozone burden (340 Tg(O 3 )) is 10% larger than the IPCC TAR estimate, while the mean ozone lifetime (22 days) is 10% shorter. Results from individual models show a correlation between ozone burden and lifetime, and each model's ozone burden and lifetime respond in similar ways across the emissions scenarios. The response to climate change is much less consistent. Models show more variability in the tropics compared to midlatitudes. Some of the most uncertain areas of the models include treatments of deep tropical convection, including lightning NO x production; isoprene emissions from vegetation and isoprene's degradation chemistry; stratosphere-troposphere exchange; biomass burning; and water vapor concentrations. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

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Multimodel ensemble simulations of present-day and near-future tropospheric ozone

Scenarios of long-term socio-economic and environmental development under climate stabilization

https://cup.edu.cn/peakoil/docs/20140408160524637170.pdf

Depletion of fossil fuels and anthropogenic climate change—A review

This paper discusses the contribution of biomass in the future global energy supply. The discussion is based on a review of 17 earlier studies on the subject. These studies have arrived at widely different conclusions about the possible contribution of biomass in the future global energy supply (e.g., from below 100 EJ yr-1 to above 400 EJ yr-1 in 2050). The major reason for the differences is that the two most crucial parameters - land availability and yield levels in energy crop production - are very uncertain, and subject to widely different opinions (e.g., the assessed 2050 plantation supply ranges from below 50 EJ yr-1 to almost 240 EJ yr-1). However, also the expectations about future availability of forest wood and of residues from agriculture and forestry vary substantially among the studies. The question how an expanding bioenergy sector would interact with other land uses, such as food production, biodiversity, soil and nature conservation, and carbon sequestration has been insufficiently analyzed in the studies. It is therefore difficult to establish to what extent bioenergy is an attractive option for climate change mitigation in the energy sector. A refined modeling of interactions between different uses and bioenergy, food and materials production - i.e., of competition for resources, and of synergies between different uses - would facilitate an improved understanding of the prospects for large-scale bioenergy and of future land-use and biomass management in general. © 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

http://np-net.pbworks.com/f/Berndes+et+al+(2003)+Bioenergy+potentials+-+17+studies,+Biomass+and+Bioenergy.pdf

The contribution of biomass in the future global energy supply: a review of 17 studies

The impact of open-pit lignite mining on water resources creates significant conflicts between different interest groups, such as the mining industry, water supply agencies, and agriculture in the mining region. The activities of each of the interest groups modify the water resources system and at the same time the conditions for resources use by other groups. Consequently, there is an apparent need for the analysis of regional water policies to reconcile the conflicting interests within such socio-eeonomic environmental systems. On that, a collaborative study between the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and Research Institutes in the German Democratic Republic (GDR) and Poland is directed.

http://rd.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2FBF02505376.pdf

D. Peuker

Papers

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria