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The 2022 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: health at the mercy of fossil fuels

Description Human activities have caused global temperatures to increase by 1.25°C, and the current emissions trajectory suggests that we will exceed 1.5°C in less than 10 years. Though the growth rate of global carbon dioxide emissions has slowed and many countries have strengthened their emissions targets, current midcentury net zero goals are insufficient to limit global warming to 1.5°C above preindustrial temperatures. The primary barriers to the achievement of a 1.5°C-compatible pathway are not geophysical but rather reflect inertia in our political and technological systems. Both political and corporate leadership are needed to overcome this inertia, supported by increased societal recognition of the need for system-level and individual lifestyle changes. The available evidence does not yet indicate that the world has seriously committed to achieving the 1.5°C goal.

Current global efforts are insufficient to limit warming to 1.5°C

Chemically recyclable polymer materials: polymerization and depolymerization cycles

Significant progress has been made in direct air capture (DAC) in recent years. Evidence suggests that the large-scale deployment of DAC by adsorption would be technically feasible for gigatons of CO2 capture annually. However, great efforts in adsorption-based DAC technologies are still required. This review provides an exhaustive description of materials development, adsorbent shaping, in situ characterization, adsorption mechanism simulation, process design, system integration, and techno-economic analysis of adsorption-based DAC over the past five years; and in terms of adsorbent development, affordable DAC adsorbents such as amine-containing porous materials with large CO2 adsorption capacities, fast kinetics, high selectivity, and long-term stability under ultra-low CO2 concentration and humid conditions. It is also critically important to develop efficient DAC adsorptive processes. Research and development in structured adsorbents that operate at low-temperature with excellent CO2 adsorption capacities and kinetics, novel gas-solid contactors with low heat and mass transfer resistances, and energy-efficient regeneration methods using heat, vacuum, and steam purge is needed to commercialize adsorption-based DAC. The synergy between DAC and carbon capture technologies for point sources can help in mitigating climate change effects in the long-term. Further investigations into DAC applications in the aviation, agriculture, energy, and chemical industries are required as well. This work benefits researchers concerned about global energy and environmental issues, and delivers perspective views for further deployment of negative-emission technologies.

Recent advances in direct air capture by adsorption.

Solid-state lithium-sulfur (Li-S) batteries are recognized as a competitive candidate for next-generation energy storage systems due to their high energy density and safety. However, the slow redox kinetics between S...

A quasi-intercalation reaction for fast sulfur redox kinetics in solid-state lithium-sulfur batteries

Parties to the 2015 Paris Agreement pledged to limit global warming to well below 2 °C and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial times1. However, fossil fuels continue to dominate the global energy system and a sharp decline in their use must be realized to keep the temperature increase below 1.5 °C (refs. 2–7). Here we use a global energy systems model8 to assess the amount of fossil fuels that would need to be left in the ground, regionally and globally, to allow for a 50 per cent probability of limiting warming to 1.5 °C. By 2050, we find that nearly 60 per cent of oil and fossil methane gas, and 90 per cent of coal must remain unextracted to keep within a 1.5 °C carbon budget. This is a large increase in the unextractable estimates for a 2 °C carbon budget9, particularly for oil, for which an additional 25 per cent of reserves must remain unextracted. Furthermore, we estimate that oil and gas production must decline globally by 3 per cent each year until 2050. This implies that most regions must reach peak production now or during the next decade, rendering many operational and planned fossil fuel projects unviable. We probably present an underestimate of the production changes required, because a greater than 50 per cent probability of limiting warming to 1.5 °C requires more carbon to stay in the ground and because of uncertainties around the timely deployment of negative emission technologies at scale. A global energy system model finds that planned fossil fuel extraction is inconsistent with limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, because the majority of fossil fuel reserves must stay in the ground.

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Unextractable fossil fuels in a 1.5 °C world

In IPCC pathways limiting warming to 1.5 °C, global coal power generation declines rapidly due to its emissions intensity and substitutability. However, we find that in countries heavily dependent on coal—China, India and South Africa—this translates to a national decline twice as rapid as that achieved historically for any power technology in any country, relative to system size. This raises questions about socio-political feasibility. Here we constrain an integrated assessment model to the Powering Past Coal Alliance’s differentiated phase-out timelines of 2030 in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development/European Union and 2050 elsewhere which, for large coal consumers, lies within the range of historical transitions. We find that limiting warming to 1.5 °C then requires CO2 emissions reductions in the global North to be 50% more rapid than if this socio-political reality is ignored. This additional mitigation is focused on Europe and the United States, in transport and industry and implies more rapid decline in global oil and gas production. While important, coal power phase-out in models may be faster than is socio-politically feasible in highly coal-dependent countries. This research shows that reaching the temperature target with these constraints requires faster decline in emissions from the global North and in global oil and gas production. 

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Socio-political feasibility of coal power phase-out and its role in mitigation pathways

• Direct Reduction Iron (DRI) Production can play a leading role in sector decarbonisation • Regional spillover effects to late-adopting regions increase the rate of deployment • Such empirically-derived spillover effects reduce cumulative emissions and costs • Other factors including material efficiency and recycling rates impact DRI's role • Stronger policy coordination is needed to realise such decarbonisation pathways The need to reduce CO 2 emissions to zero by 2050 has meant an increasing focus on high emitting industrial sectors such as steel. However, significant uncertainties remain as to the rate of technology diffusion across steel production pathways in different regions, and how this might impact on climate ambition. Informed by empirical analysis of historical transitions, this paper presents modelling on the regional deployment of Direction Reduction Iron using hydrogen (DRI-H2). We find that DRI-H2 can play a leading role in the decarbonisation of the sector, leading to near-zero emissions by 2070. Regional spillovers from early to late adopting regions can speed up the rate of deployment of DRI-H2, leading to lower cumulative emissions and system costs. Without such effects, cumulative emissions are 13% higher than if spillovers are assumed and approximately 15% and 20% higher in China and India respectively. Given the estimates of DRI-H2 cost-effectiveness relative to other primary production technologies, we also find that costs increase in the absence of regional spillovers. However, other factors can also have impacts on deployment, emission reductions, and costs, including the composition of the early adopter group, material efficiency improvements and scrap recycling rates. For the sector to achieve decarbonisation, key regions will need to continue to invest in low carbon steel projects, recognising their broader global benefit, and look to develop and strengthen policy coordination on technologies such as DRI-H2. 

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Regional uptake of direct reduction iron production using hydrogen under climate policy

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Dan Welsby

Papers

Unextractable fossil fuels in a 1.5 °C world

Socio-political feasibility of coal power phase-out and its role in mitigation pathways

Regional uptake of direct reduction iron production using hydrogen under climate policy

Author Correction: Unextractable fossil fuels in a 1.5 °C world