In this book, Andrew Harvey sets out to provide a unified and comprehensive theory of structural time series models. Unlike the traditional ARIMA models, structural time series models consist explicitly of unobserved components, such as trends and seasonals, which have a direct interpretation. As a result the model selection methodology associated with structural models is much closer to econometric methodology. The link with econometrics is made even closer by the natural way in which the models can be extended to include explanatory variables and to cope with multivariate time series. From the technical point of view, state space models and the Kalman filter play a key role in the statistical treatment of structural time series models. The book includes a detailed treatment of the Kalman filter. This technique was originally developed in control engineering, but is becoming increasingly important in fields such as economics and operations research. This book is concerned primarily with modelling economic and social time series, and with addressing the special problems which the treatment of such series poses. The properties of the models and the methodological techniques used to select them are illustrated with various applications. These range from the modellling of trends and cycles in US macroeconomic time series to to an evaluation of the effects of seat belt legislation in the UK.

Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter

We examine the frequency of price changes for 350 categories of goods and services covering about 70 percent of consumer spending, on the basis of unpublished data from the Bureau of Labor Statisti...

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Some evidence on the importance of sticky prices

Teacher training, teacher quality and student achievement

This chapter summarizes what has been learned from recent research on intergenerational transmission of earnings status. The chapter begins by using a simple theoretical model to highlight several key concepts. Then it reviews (and discusses the connections among) three related empirical literatures: on sibling correlations in earnings, on the intergenerational elasticity of offspring’s earnings with respect to parents’ earnings or income, and on neighborhood effects. © 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Intergenerational Mobility in the Labor Market

My focus is on the degree to which increasing inequality in the high-income countries, particularly in the United States, is likely to limit economic mobility for the next generation of young adults. I discuss the underlying drivers of opportunity that generate the relationship between inequality and intergenerational mobility. The goal is to explain why America differs from other countries, how intergenerational mobility will change in an era of higher inequality, and how the process is different for the top 1 percent. I begin by presenting evidence that countries with more inequality at one point in time also experience less earnings mobility across the generations, a relationship that has been called “The Great Gatsby Curve.” The interaction between families, labor markets, and public policies all structure a child's opportunities and determine the extent to which adult earnings are related to family background—but they do so in different ways across national contexts. Both cross-country compa...

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Income Inequality, Equality of Opportunity, and Intergenerational Mobility

This paper tests a textbook consequence of competitive markets: that an industry-wide increase in the price of labor is passed on to consumers through an increase in prices. Using several data sources on restaurant prices, I explore the price impact of minimum-wage hikes in Canada and the United States. Particular attention is paid to the timing of these price responses to gauge the ‘stickiness’ of minimum-wage cost shocks. I find that restaurant prices generally rise with changes in the wage bill and that this response is concentrated in the quarter surrounding the month during which the legislation is enacted.

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Price pass-through and the minimum wage

In the wake of the Great Depression, the Federal government created new institutions such as the Home Owners' Loan Corporation (HOLC) to stabilize housing markets. As part of that effort, the HOLC created residential security maps for over 200 cities to grade the riskiness of lending to neighborhoods. We trace out the effects of these maps over the course of the 20th and into the early 21st century by linking geocoded HOLC maps to both Census and modern credit bureau data. Our analysis looks at the difference in outcomes between residents living on a lower graded side versus a higher graded side of an HOLC boundary within highly close proximity to one another. We compare these differences to counterfactual boundaries using propensity score and other weighting procedures. In addition, we exploit borders that are least likely to have been endogenously drawn. We find that areas that were the lower graded side of HOLC boundaries in the 1930s experienced a marked increase in racial segregation in subsequent decades that peaked around 1970 before beginning to decline. We also find evidence of a long-run decline in home ownership, house values, and credit scores along the lower graded side of HOLC borders that persists today. We document similar long-run patterns among both redlined and non-redlined neighborhoods and, in some important outcomes, show larger and more lasting effects among the latter. Our results provide strongly suggestive evidence that the HOLC maps had a causal and persistent effect on the development of neighborhoods through credit access.

The Effects of the 1930s Holc \QRedlining\Q Maps

Using store-level and aggregated Consumer Price Index data, we show that restaurant prices rise in response to minimum wage increases under several sources of identifying variation. We introduce a general model of employment determination that implies minimum wage hikes cause prices to rise in competitive labor markets but potentially fall in monopsonistic environments. Furthermore, the model implies employment and prices are always negatively related. Therefore, our empirical results provide evidence against the importance of monopsony power for understanding small observed employment responses to minimum wage changes. Our estimated price responses challenge other explanations of the small employment response, too.

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The Minimum Wage, Restaurant Prices, and Labor Market Structure

We document two new findings about the industry‐level response to minimum wage hikes. First, restaurant exit and entry both rise following a hike. Second, there is no change in employment among continuing restaurants. We develop a model of industry dynamics based on putty‐clay technology that is consistent with these findings. In the model, continuing restaurants cannot change employment, and thus industry‐level adjustment occurs gradually through exit of labor‐intensive restaurants and entry of capital‐intensive restaurants. Interestingly, the putty‐clay model matches the small estimated short‐run disemployment effect of the minimum wage found in other studies, but produces a larger long‐run disemployment effect.

https://events.barcelonagse.eu/live/files/864-sim15-frenchpdf%5D

Industry dynamics and the minimum wage: a putty‐clay approach

This article analyzes what is behind the recent unprecedented rise in long-term unemployment and explains what this rise might imply for the economy going forward. In particular, the authors attribute the sharp increase in unemployment duration in 2009 to especially weak labor demand and, to a lesser degree, extensions in unemployment insurance benefits.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID1655960_code379856.pdf?abstractid=1655960&mirid=4

Daniel Aaronson

Papers

Price pass-through and the minimum wage

The Effects of the 1930s Holc \QRedlining\Q Maps

The Minimum Wage, Restaurant Prices, and Labor Market Structure

Industry dynamics and the minimum wage: a putty‐clay approach

What is Behind the Rise in Long-Term Unemployment?