Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and in Radiative Forcing

Recent climatic changes have enhanced plant growth in northern mid-latitudes and high latitudes. However, a comprehensive analysis of the impact of global climatic changes on vegetation productivity has not before been expressed in the context of variable limiting factors to plant growth. We present a global investigation of vegetation responses to climatic changes by analyzing 18 years (1982 to 1999) of both climatic data and satellite observations of vegetation activity. Our results indicate that global changes in climate have eased several critical climatic constraints to plant growth, such that net primary production increased 6% (3.4 petagrams of carbon over 18 years) globally. The largest increase was in tropical ecosystems. Amazon rain forests accounted for 42% of the global increase in net primary production, owing mainly to decreased cloud cover and the resulting increase in solar radiation.

http://cliveg.bu.edu/download/manuscripts/nemani01.pdf

Climate-Driven Increases in Global Terrestrial Net Primary Production from 1982 to 1999

. New burned area datasets and top-down constraints from atmospheric concentration measurements of pyrogenic gases have decreased the large uncertainty in fire emissions estimates. However, significant gaps remain in our understanding of the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural waste, and peat fires to total global fire emissions. Here we used a revised version of the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford-Approach (CASA) biogeochemical model and improved satellite-derived estimates of area burned, fire activity, and plant productivity to calculate fire emissions for the 1997–2009 period on a 0.5° spatial resolution with a monthly time step. For November 2000 onwards, estimates were based on burned area, active fire detections, and plant productivity from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor. For the partitioning we focused on the MODIS era. We used maps of burned area derived from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Visible and Infrared Scanner (VIRS) and Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) active fire data prior to MODIS (1997–2000) and estimates of plant productivity derived from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) observations during the same period. Average global fire carbon emissions according to this version 3 of the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED3) were 2.0 Pg C year−1 with significant interannual variability during 1997–2001 (2.8 Pg C year−1 in 1998 and 1.6 Pg C year−1 in 2001). Globally, emissions during 2002–2007 were relatively constant (around 2.1 Pg C year−1) before declining in 2008 (1.7 Pg C year−1) and 2009 (1.5 Pg C year−1) partly due to lower deforestation fire emissions in South America and tropical Asia. On a regional basis, emissions were highly variable during 2002–2007 (e.g., boreal Asia, South America, and Indonesia), but these regional differences canceled out at a global level. During the MODIS era (2001–2009), most carbon emissions were from fires in grasslands and savannas (44%) with smaller contributions from tropical deforestation and degradation fires (20%), woodland fires (mostly confined to the tropics, 16%), forest fires (mostly in the extratropics, 15%), agricultural waste burning (3%), and tropical peat fires (3%). The contribution from agricultural waste fires was likely a lower bound because our approach for measuring burned area could not detect all of these relatively small fires. Total carbon emissions were on average 13% lower than in our previous (GFED2) work. For reduced trace gases such as CO and CH4, deforestation, degradation, and peat fires were more important contributors because of higher emissions of reduced trace gases per unit carbon combusted compared to savanna fires. Carbon emissions from tropical deforestation, degradation, and peatland fires were on average 0.5 Pg C year−1. The carbon emissions from these fires may not be balanced by regrowth following fire. Our results provide the first global assessment of the contribution of different sources to total global fire emissions for the past decade, and supply the community with an improved 13-year fire emissions time series.

/pdf/global-fire-emissions-and-the-contribution-of-deforestation-r24zw2ke8k.pdf

Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires (1997-2009)

Assessing how environmental changes affect the distribution and dynamics of vegetation and animal populations is becoming increasingly important for terrestrial ecologists to enable better predictions of the effects of global warming, biodiversity reduction or habitat degradation. The ability to predict ecological responses has often been hampered by our rather limited understanding of trophic interactions. Indeed, it has proven difficult to discern direct and indirect effects of environmental change on animal populations owing to limited information about vegetation at large temporal and spatial scales. The rapidly increasing use of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in ecological studies has recently changed this situation. Here, we review the use of the NDVI in recent ecological studies and outline its possible key role in future research of environmental change in an ecosystem context.

/pdf/using-the-satellite-derived-ndvi-to-assess-ecological-2axju5fq7n.pdf

Using the satellite-derived NDVI to assess ecological responses to environmental change

Global climate change impacts can already be tracked in many physical and biological systems; in particular, terrestrial ecosystems provide a consistent picture of observed changes. One of the preferred indicators is phenology, the science of natural recurring events, as their recorded dates provide a high-temporal resolution of ongoing changes. Thus, numerous analyses have demonstrated an earlier onset of spring events for mid and higher latitudes and a lengthening of the growing season. However, published single-site or single-species studies are particularly open to suspicion of being biased towards predominantly reporting climate change-induced impacts. No comprehensive study or meta-analysis has so far examined the possible lack of evidence for changes or shifts at sites where no temperature change is observed. We used an enormous systematic phenological network data set of more than 125 000 observational series of 542 plant and 19 animal species in 21 European countries (1971–2000). Our results showed that 78% of all leafing, flowering and fruiting records advanced (30% significantly) and only 3% were significantly delayed, whereas the signal of leaf colouring/fall is ambiguous. We conclude that previously published results of phenological changes were not biased by reporting or publication predisposition: the average advance of spring/summer was 2.5 days decade � 1 in Europe. Our analysis of 254 mean national time series undoubtedly demonstrates that species’ phenology is responsive to temperature of the preceding

/pdf/european-phenological-response-to-climate-change-matches-the-3dr30qvjfp.pdf

European phenological response to climate change matches the warming pattern

Daily daytime Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) 4‐km global area coverage data have been processed to produce a Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) 8‐km equal‐area dataset from July 1981 through December 2004 for all continents except Antarctica. New features of this dataset include bimonthly composites, NOAA‐9 descending node data from August 1994 to January 1995, volcanic stratospheric aerosol correction for 1982–1984 and 1991–1993, NDVI normalization using empirical mode decomposition/reconstruction to minimize varying solar zenith angle effects introduced by orbital drift, inclusion of data from NOAA‐16 for 2000–2003 and NOAA‐17 for 2003–2004, and a similar dynamic range with the MODIS NDVI. Two NDVI compositing intervals have been produced: a bimonthly global dataset and a 10‐day Africa‐only dataset. Post‐processing review corrected the majority of dropped scan lines, navigation errors, data drop outs, edge‐of‐orbit composite discontinuities, and other artefacts in the compos...

An extended AVHRR 8‐km NDVI dataset compatible with MODIS and SPOT vegetation NDVI data

The northern high latitudes have warmed by about 0.8°C since the early 1970s, but not all areas have warmed uniformly [Hansen et al., 1999]. There is warming in most of Eurasia, but the warming rate in the United States is smaller than in most of the world, and a slight cooling is observed in the eastern United States over the past 50 years. These changes beg the question, can we detect the biotic response to temperature changes? Here we present results from analyses of a recently developed satellite-sensed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data set for the period July 1981 to December 1999: (1) About 61% of the total vegetated area between 40°N and 70°N in Eurasia shows a persistent increase in growing season NDVI over a broad contiguous swath of land from central Europe through Siberia to the Aldan plateau, where almost 58% (7.3×106 km2) is forests and woodlands; North America, in comparison, shows a fragmented pattern of change in smaller areas notable only in the forests of the southeast and grasslands of the upper Midwest, (2) A larger increase in growing season NDVI magnitude (12% versus 8%) and a longer active growing season (18 versus 12 days) brought about by an early spring and delayed autumn are observed in Eurasia relative to North America, (3) NDVI decreases are observed in parts of Alaska, boreal Canada, and northeastern Asia, possibly due to temperature-induced drought as these regions experienced pronounced warming without a concurrent increase in rainfall [Barber et al., 2000]. We argue that these changes in NDVI reflect changes in biological activity. Statistical analyses indicate that there is a statistically meaningful relation between changes in NDVI and land surface temperature for vegetated areas between 40°N and 70°N. That is, the temporal changes and continental differences in NDVI are consistent with ground-based measurements of temperature, an important determinant of biological activity. Together, these results suggest a photosynthetically vigorous Eurasia relative to North America during the past 2 decades, possibly driven by temperature and precipitation patterns. Our results are in broad agreement with a recent comparative analysis of 1980s and 1990s boreal and temperate forest inventory data [United Nations, 2000].

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2000JD000115

Variations in northern vegetation activity inferred from satellite data of vegetation index during 1981 to 1999

Normalized difference vegetation index data from the polar-orbiting National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration meteorological satellites from 1982 to 1999 show significant variations in photosynthetic activity and growing season length at latitudes above 35 degrees N. Two distinct periods of increasing plant growth are apparent: 1982-1991 and 1992-1999, separated by a reduction from 1991 to 1992 associated with global cooling resulting from the volcanic eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in June 1991. The average May to September normalized difference vegetation index from 45 degrees N to 75 degrees N increased by 9% from 1982 to 1991, decreased by 5% from 1991 to 1992, and increased by 8% from 1992 to 1999. Variations in the normalized difference vegetation index were associated with variations in the start of the growing season of -5.6, +3.9, and -1.7 days respectively, for the three time periods. Our results support surface temperature increases within the same period at higher northern latitudes where temperature limits plant growth.

/pdf/higher-northern-latitude-normalized-difference-vegetation-2i8tow9zu4.pdf

Higher northern latitude normalized difference vegetation index and growing season trends from 1982 to 1999

Northern hemisphere photosynthetic trends 1982–99

During the 2009-2010 overwintering season and following a 15-year downward trend, the total area in Mexico occupied by the eastern North American population of overwintering monarch butterflies reached an all-time low. Despite an increase, it remained low in 2010-2011. 2. Although the data set is small, the decline in abundance is statistically signifi- cant using both linear and exponential regression models. 3. Three factors appear to have contributed to reduce monarch abundance: degra- dation of the forest in the overwintering areas; the loss of breeding habitat in the Uni- ted States due to the expansion of GM herbicide-resistant crops, with consequent loss of milkweed host plants, as well as continued land development; and severe weather. 4. This decline calls into question the long-term survival of the monarchs' migra- tory phenomenon. Resumen. 1. Durante la temporada invernal 2009-2010, y siguiendo una tenden- cia a la baja de 15 anos, la superficie total ocupada por mariposas monarca en Mexico, provenientes del este America del Norte, llegoa su punto mas bajo. A pesar de su incremento, dicha superficie siguiosiendo baja en 2010-2011. 2. Aunque que el conjunto de datos disponibles es aun pequeno, esta disminucion de la abundancia de mariposas es estadisticamente significativa, tanto si se usan modelos de regresion lineales como exponenciales. 3. Hay tres factores que parecen haber contribuido con esta tendencia de reduc- ciond el numero de mariposas: la degradacion de bosque en las areas de invernacion en Mexico; la perdida de habitat de reproduccion en los Estados Unidos, debido a la expansiond e cultivos geneticamente modificados resistentes a herbicidas, con la consiguiente perdida de las plantas hospederas de algodoncillo, y por continuos cambios en el uso del suelo no favorables para ellas; y, las recientes condiciones cli- maticas severas. 4. Esta disminucion hace que nos cuestionemos sobre la posibilidad de superviven- cia a largo plazo del fenomeno migratorio de las mariposas monarca.

/pdf/decline-of-monarch-butterflies-overwintering-in-mexico-is-efscjptikg.pdf

Daniel Slayback

Papers

An extended AVHRR 8‐km NDVI dataset compatible with MODIS and SPOT vegetation NDVI data

Variations in northern vegetation activity inferred from satellite data of vegetation index during 1981 to 1999

Higher northern latitude normalized difference vegetation index and growing season trends from 1982 to 1999

Northern hemisphere photosynthetic trends 1982–99

Decline of monarch butterflies overwintering in Mexico: is the migratory phenomenon at risk?