Lead Authors: Marco Bindi (Italy), Sally Brown (UK), Ines Camilloni (Argentina), Arona Diedhiou (Ivory Coast/Senegal), Riyanti Djalante (Japan/Indonesia), Kristie L. Ebi (USA), Francois Engelbrecht (South Africa), Joel Guiot (France), Yasuaki Hijioka (Japan), Shagun Mehrotra (USA/India), Antony Payne (UK), Sonia I. Seneviratne (Switzerland), Adelle Thomas (Bahamas), Rachel Warren (UK), Guangsheng Zhou (China)

Impacts of 1.5°C Global Warming on Natural and Human Systems

Extreme sea levels (ESLs) in Europe could rise by as much as one metre or more by the end of this century due to climate change. This poses significant challenges to safeguard coastal communities. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of economically efficient protection scenarios along Europe’s coastlines during the present century. We employ a probabilistic framework that integrates dynamic simulations of all ESL components and flood inundation, impact modelling and a cost-benefit analysis of raising dykes. We find that at least 83% of flood damages in Europe could be avoided by elevating dykes in an economically efficient way along 23.7%-32.1% of Europe’s coastline, specifically where high value conurbations exist. The European mean benefit to cost ratio of the investments varies from 8.3 to 14.9 while at country level this ranges between 1.6 and 34.3, with higher efficiencies for a scenario with high-end greenhouse gas emissions and strong socio-economic growth. There lacks a European cost-benefit analysis of possible protective measures against rising seas. Here the authors used a probabilistic data and modeling framework to estimate costs and benefits of coastal protection measures and found that at least 83% of flood damages could be avoided by dyke improvements along a third of the European coastline.

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Economic motivation for raising coastal flood defenses in Europe.

Edited by Lars Otto Naess, Domain Editor, and Mike Hulme, Editor-in-Chief Abstract The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2014 was the most comprehensive to date. Yet it left several gaps with regards to the impacts, implications and responses to climate change in small island developing states (SIDS). SIDS are recognized as a special grouping of developing countries. Located in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, Caribbean, and Pacific regions, they comprise 58 countries that are disproportionately vulnerable to climate change and its impacts. With adaptation to climate change viewed as a viable and necessary complement to mitigation, academic interest in adaptation in these complex geographies is increasing. Despite this, not enough is known about the body of knowledge relating to adaptation in SIDS. This article systematically reviews 208 articles, books, book chapters, conference papers, and notes, and synthesizes the nature and extent of the research evidence before and after AR5 (i.e., from 1990 to 2014, and from 2015 to 2018). It specifically explores shifts in (a) when, where and by what means knowledge is being produced (e.g., subject areas, methodologies), and the ways in which adaptation is being framed (i.e., conceptually, operationally), (b) the narratives, consensuses, and tensions across the key emerging themes in the literature, and (c) the knowledge gaps that exist. It also outlines a future research agenda, which is an important consideration not only for multi-scale actors working to help solve the global climate challenge, but also for the scholars preparing the Small Islands Chapter of the Sixth Assessment Report due in 2021.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/wcc.653

Climate change adaptation in SIDS: A systematic review of the literature pre and post the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

The ports sector is critical to global transport and trade. Climate change may compromise port operations, resulting in an increase in operational shutdowns and subsequent economic losses. Here, we present an analysis of historical global risk across the operations of 2,013 ports worldwide and the impacts under a high-end warming scenario, considering atmospheric and marine hazards, industry established operational thresholds, exposure and vulnerability. Increased coastal flooding and overtopping due to sea level rise, as well as the heat stress impacts of higher temperatures, are the main contributors to amplified risk. Ports located in the Pacific Islands, Caribbean Sea and Indian Ocean appear to be at extremely high risk by 2100, whereas those in the African Mediterranean and the Arabian Peninsula (Persian Gulf and Red Sea) are expected to experience very high risk. Estimating risks at the global scale cannot capture site-level details, but these results provide a benchmark for further research and decision-making. Global trade and transport depend on the resilience of the ports sector. Multi-hazard operational risks are estimated for 2,013 ports under historical climate and future warming; of the marine and atmospheric hazards considered, coastal flooding, wave overtopping and heat stress increase risk most.

Climate change risk to global port operations

A flood risk assessment framework for interdependent infrastructure systems in coastal environments

This contribution presents an assessment of the potential vulnerabilities to climate variability and change (CV & C) of the critical transportation infrastructure of Caribbean Small Island Developing States (SIDS). It focuses on potential operational disruptions and coastal inundation forced by CV & C on four coastal international airports and four seaports in Jamaica and Saint Lucia which are critical facilitators of international connectivity and socioeconomic development. Impact assessments have been carried out under climatic conditions forced by a 1.5 °C specific warming level (SWL) above pre-industrial levels, as well as for different emission scenarios and time periods in the twenty-first century. Disruptions and increasing costs due to, e.g., more frequent exceedance of high temperature thresholds that could impede transport operations are predicted, even under the 1.5 °C SWL, advocated by the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) and reflected as an aspirational goal in the Paris Climate Agreement. Dynamic modeling of the coastal inundation under different return periods of projected extreme sea levels (ESLs) indicates that the examined airports and seaports will face increasing coastal inundation during the century. Inundation is projected for the airport runways of some of the examined international airports and most of the seaports, even from the 100-year extreme sea level under 1.5 °C SWL. In the absence of effective technical adaptation measures, both operational disruptions and coastal inundation are projected to increasingly affect all examined assets over the course of the century.

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Climate change impacts on critical international transportation assets of Caribbean Small Island Developing States (SIDS): the case of Jamaica and Saint Lucia

Danielle Dowding-Gooden

Papers

Climate change impacts on critical international transportation assets of Caribbean Small Island Developing States (SIDS): the case of Jamaica and Saint Lucia