We present TerraClimate, a dataset of high-spatial resolution (1/24°, ~4-km) monthly climate and climatic water balance for global terrestrial surfaces from 1958-2015. TerraClimate uses climatically aided interpolation, combining high-spatial resolution climatological normals from the WorldClim dataset, with coarser resolution time varying (i.e., monthly) data from other sources to produce a monthly dataset of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, wind speed, vapor pressure, and solar radiation. TerraClimate additionally produces monthly surface water balance datasets using a water balance model that incorporates reference evapotranspiration, precipitation, temperature, and interpolated plant extractable soil water capacity. These data provide important inputs for ecological and hydrological studies at global scales that require high spatial resolution and time varying climate and climatic water balance data. We validated spatiotemporal aspects of TerraClimate using annual temperature, precipitation, and calculated reference evapotranspiration from station data, as well as annual runoff from streamflow gauges. TerraClimate datasets showed noted improvement in overall mean absolute error and increased spatial realism relative to coarser resolution gridded datasets.

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TerraClimate, a high-resolution global dataset of monthly climate and climatic water balance from 1958-2015.

Species distribution modeling is a valuable tool with many applications across ecology and evolutionary biology. The selection of biologically meaningful environmental variables that determine relative habitat suitability is a crucial aspect of the modeling pipeline. The 19 bioclimatic variables from WorldClim are frequently employed, primarily because they are easily accessible and available globally for past, present and future climate scenarios. Yet, the availability of relatively few other comparable environmental datasets potentially limits our ability to select appropriate variables that will most successfully characterize a species’ distribution. We identified a set of 16 climatic and two topographic variables in the literature, which we call the ENVIREM dataset, many of which are likely to have direct relevance to ecological or physiological processes determining species distributions. We generated this set of variables at the same resolutions as WorldClim, for the present, mid-Holocene, and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). For 20 North American vertebrate species, we then assessed whether including the ENVIREM variables led to improved species distribution models compared to models using only the existing WorldClim variables. We found that including the ENVIREM dataset in the pool of variables to select from led to substantial improvements in niche modeling performance in 13 out of 20 species. We also show that, when comparing models constructed with different environmental variables, differences in projected distributions were often greater in the LGM than in the present. These variables are worth consideration in species distribution modeling applications, especially as many of the variables have direct links to processes important for species ecology. We provide these variables for download at multiple resolutions and for several time periods at envirem.github.io. Furthermore, we have written the ‘envirem’ R package to facilitate the generation of these variables from other input datasets.

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ENVIREM: an expanded set of bioclimatic and topographic variables increases flexibility and improves performance of ecological niche modeling

Species often include multiple ecotypes that are adapted to different environments1. However, it is unclear how ecotypes arise and how their distinctive combinations of adaptive alleles are maintained despite hybridization with non-adapted populations2–4. Here, by resequencing 1,506 wild sunflowers from 3 species (Helianthus annuus, Helianthus petiolaris and Helianthus argophyllus), we identify 37 large (1–100 Mbp in size), non-recombining haplotype blocks that are associated with numerous ecologically relevant traits, as well as soil and climate characteristics. Limited recombination in these haplotype blocks keeps adaptive alleles together, and these regions differentiate sunflower ecotypes. For example, haplotype blocks control a 77-day difference in flowering between ecotypes of the silverleaf sunflower H. argophyllus (probably through deletion of a homologue of FLOWERING LOCUS T (FT)), and are associated with seed size, flowering time and soil fertility in dune-adapted sunflowers. These haplotypes are highly divergent, frequently associated with structural variants and often appear to represent introgressions from other—possibly now-extinct—congeners. These results highlight a pervasive role of structural variation in ecotypic adaptation. Resequencing analyses of three species of wild sunflower identify large non-recombining haplotype blocks that correlate with ecologically relevant traits, soil and climate characteristics, and that differentiate species ecotypes.

Massive haplotypes underlie ecotypic differentiation in sunflowers

Forest tree breeding has been successful at delivering genetically improved material for multiple traits based on recurrent cycles of selection, mating, and testing. However, long breeding cycles, late flowering, variable juvenile-mature correlations, emerging pests and diseases, climate, and market changes, all pose formidable challenges. Genetic dissection approaches such as quantitative trait mapping and association genetics have been fruitless to effectively drive operational marker-assisted selection (MAS) in forest trees, largely because of the complex multifactorial inheritance of most, if not all traits of interest. The convergence of high-throughput genomics and quantitative genetics has established two new paradigms that are changing contemporary tree breeding dogmas. Genomic selection (GS) uses large number of genome-wide markers to predict complex phenotypes. It has the potential to accelerate breeding cycles, increase selection intensity and improve the accuracy of breeding values. Realized genomic relationships matrices, on the other hand, provide innovations in genetic parameters' estimation and breeding approaches by tracking the variation arising from random Mendelian segregation in pedigrees. In light of a recent flow of promising experimental results, here we briefly review the main concepts, analytical tools and remaining challenges that currently underlie the application of genomics data to tree breeding. With easy and cost-effective genotyping, we are now at the brink of extensive adoption of GS in tree breeding. Areas for future GS research include optimizing strategies for updating prediction models, adding validated functional genomics data to improve prediction accuracy, and integrating genomic and multi-environment data for forecasting the performance of genetic material in untested sites or under changing climate scenarios. The buildup of phenotypic and genome-wide data across large-scale breeding populations and advances in computational prediction of discrete genomic features should also provide opportunities to enhance the application of genomics to tree breeding.

Quantitative Genetics and Genomics Converge to Accelerate Forest Tree Breeding

Wildland fire is a critical process in forests of the western United States (US). Variation in fire behavior, which is heavily influenced by fuel loading, terrain, weather, and vegetation type, leads to heterogeneity in fire severity across landscapes. The relative influence of these factors in driving fire severity, however, is poorly understood. Here, we explore the drivers of high-severity fire for forested ecoregions in the western US over the period 2002–2015. Fire severity was quantified using a satellite-inferred index of severity, the relativized burn ratio. For each ecoregion, we used boosted regression trees to model high-severity fire as a function of live fuel, topography, climate, and fire weather. We found that live fuel, on average, was the most important factor driving high-severity fire among ecoregions (average relative influence = 53.1%) and was the most important factor in 14 of 19 ecoregions. Fire weather was the second most important factor among ecoregions (average relative influence = 22.9%) and was the most important factor in five ecoregions. Climate (13.7%) and topography (10.3%) were less influential. We also predicted the probability of high-severity fire, were a fire to occur, using recent (2016) satellite imagery to characterize live fuel for a subset of ecoregions in which the model skill was deemed acceptable (n = 13). These 'wall-to-wall' gridded ecoregional maps provide relevant and up-to-date information for scientists and managers who are tasked with managing fuel and wildland fire. Lastly, we provide an example of the predicted likelihood of high-severity fire under moderate and extreme fire weather before and after fuel reduction treatments, thereby demonstrating how our framework and model predictions can potentially serve as a performance metric for land management agencies tasked with reducing hazardous fuel across large landscapes.

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aab791/pdf

High-severity fire: evaluating its key drivers and mapping its probability across western US forests.

Large volumes of gridded climate data have become available in recent years including interpolated historical data from weather stations and future predictions from general circulation models. These datasets, however, are at various spatial resolutions that need to be converted to scales meaningful for applications such as climate change risk and impact assessments or sample-based ecological research. Extracting climate data for specific locations from large datasets is not a trivial task and typically requires advanced GIS and data management skills. In this study, we developed a software package, ClimateNA, that facilitates this task and provides a user-friendly interface suitable for resource managers and decision makers as well as scientists. The software locally downscales historical and future monthly climate data layers into scale-free point estimates of climate values for the entire North American continent. The software also calculates a large number of biologically relevant climate variables that are usually derived from daily weather data. ClimateNA covers 1) 104 years of historical data (1901–2014) in monthly, annual, decadal and 30-year time steps; 2) three paleoclimatic periods (Last Glacial Maximum, Mid Holocene and Last Millennium); 3) three future periods (2020s, 2050s and 2080s); and 4) annual time-series of model projections for 2011–2100. Multiple general circulation models (GCMs) were included for both paleo and future periods, and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and 8.5) were chosen for future climate data.

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Locally Downscaled and Spatially Customizable Climate Data for Historical and Future Periods for North America.

ClimateBC v5 is a standalone MS Windows application written in Visual Basic 6.0. It extracts and downscales PRISM (Daly et al. 2008) 1971-2000 monthly climate normal data (800 x 800 m) and monthly solar radiation normal data (800 x 800 m) to scale-free point locations, and calculates seasonal and annual climate variables for specific locations based on latitude, longitude and elevation (optional). ClimateBC covers the British Columbia and some surrounding areas (Figure 1).

Dave Spittlehouse

Papers

Locally Downscaled and Spatially Customizable Climate Data for Historical and Future Periods for North America.

ClimateBC v5.10 A program to generate climate normal, annual, seasonal and monthly data for historical and future periods in British Columbia