This paper argues that the textbook search and matching model cannot generate the observed business-cycle-frequency fluctuations in unemployment and job vacancies in response to shocks of a plausible magnitude. In the United States, the standard deviation of the vacancy-unemployment ratio is almost 20 times as large as the standard deviation of average labor productivity, while the search model predicts that the two variables should have nearly the same volatility. A shock that changes average labor productivity primarily alters the present value of wages, generating only a small movement along a downward-sloping Beveridge curve (unemploymentvacancy locus). A shock to the separation rate generates a counterfactually positive correlation between unemployment and vacancies. In both cases, the model exhibits virtually no propagation. (JEL E24, E32, J41, J63, J64)

/pdf/the-cyclical-behavior-of-equilibrium-unemployment-and-17ieb2nfw9.pdf

The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies

This paper surveys the microfoundations, empirical evidence, and estimation issues underlying the aggregate matching function. There is no consensus yet on microfoundations but one is emerging on estimation. An aggregate, constant returns, Cobb-Douglas matching function with hires as a function of vacancies and unemployment has been successfully estimated for several countries. Recent work has utilized disaggregated data to go beyond aggregate estimates, with many refinements and suggestions for future research. The paper discusses spatial aggregation issues, and implications of on-the-job search and of the timing of stocks and flows for estimated matching functions.

/pdf/looking-into-the-black-box-a-survey-of-the-matching-function-1boerkl7oh.pdf

Looking into the Black Box: A Survey of the Matching Function

Land policies are of fundamental importance to sustainable growth, good governance, and the well-being of, and the economic opportunities open to, both rural and urban dwellers - particularly the poor. To this end, research on land policy, and analysis of interventions related to the subject, have long been of interest to the Bank's Research Department, and other academic, and civil society institutions. The report aims to strengthen the effectiveness of land policy in support of development, and poverty reduction, by setting out the results of recent research in a way that is accessible to a wide audience of policymakers, nongovernmental organizations, academics in the Bank's client countries, donor agency officials, and the broader development community. Its main message rests on three principles: 1) provision of secure tenure to land improves the welfare of the poor, particularly by enhancing the asset base of those whose land rights are often neglected, and, creates incentives needed for investment, paramount to sustainable economic growth; 2) facilitation of land exchange, and distribution, whether as an asset or for current services, at low cost, through markets, and non-market channels, will expedite land access by productive, but land-poor producers, so that once economic growth improves, financial markets would rely on the use of land as collateral; and, 3) governments' contribution to the promotion of socially desirable land allocation, and utilization. The report discusses mechanisms to promote tenure security, demonstrates the importance of rental market transactions, arguing the removal of impediments to these can generate equity advantages, and positive investments. It also illustrates mechanisms, ranging from taxation, to regulation and land use planning to address these issues.

Land policies for growth and poverty reduction

Business Cycles: A Theoretical, Historical, and Statistical Analysis of the Capitalist Process.

Search in the labor market and the real business cycle

The quantitative implications of labor-market search for economic fluctuations are evaluated in the context of a real-business-cycle model. Incorporating labor-market search into the model is found to improve its empirical performance along several dimensions. In particular, hours now fluctuate substantially more than wages and the contemporaneous correlation between hours and productivity falls. In addition, the model replicates the observation that output growth displays positive autocorrelation at short horizons. Overall, the empirical results suggest that the labor-market-search environment embodies a quantitatively important propagation mechanism. Copyright 1996 by American Economic Association.

/pdf/business-cycles-and-labor-market-search-kbbclhuap7.pdf

Business Cycles and Labor-Market Search

This paper investigates the role of beliefs over monetary policy in propagating the effects of monetary policy shocks within the context of a dynamic, stochastic general equilibrium model. In this model, monetary policy periodically switches between low- and high-money-growth regimes.When individuals cannot observe the regime directly, they must draw inferences over regime type based on historical money growth rates.The authors show that for an empirically plausible money growth process, beliefs evolve slowly in the wake of a regime change.As a result, their model is able to capture some of the observed persistence of real and nominal variables following such a regime change.

/pdf/monetary-policy-regimes-and-beliefs-54vkm82w8l.pdf

Monetary Policy Regimes and Beliefs

This article investigates the role of beliefs over monetary policy in propagating the effects of monetary policy shocks within the context of a dynamic, stochastic general equilibrium model. In our model, monetary policy periodically switches between low and high money growth regimes. When individuals are unable to observe the regime directly, they form inferences over regime-type based on historical money growth rates. For an empirically plausible money growth process, beliefs evolve slowly in the wake of a regime change. As a result, our model is able to capture some of the observed persistence of real and nominal variables following such a regime change.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/iere205.pdf?abstractid=377082&mirid=5

Several recent papers report evidence of an apparent statistical bias in inflation expectations and interpret these findings as overturning the rational expectations hypothesis. In this paper, we investigate the validity of such an interpretation. We present a computational dynamic general equilibrium model capable of generating aggregate behavior similar to the data along several dimensions. By construction, model agents form "rational" expectations. We run a standard regression on equilibrium realizations of inflation and inflation expectations over sample periods corresponding to those tests performed on actual data and find evidence of an apparent bias in inflation expectations. Our experiments suggest that this incorrect inference is largely the product of a small sample problem, exacerbated by short-run learning dynamics in response to infrequent shifts in monetary policy regimes.

Are Inflation Expectations Rational

https://www.sfu.ca/%7Edandolfa/Essential2009.pdf

David Andolfatto

Papers

Business Cycles and Labor-Market Search

Monetary Policy Regimes and Beliefs

Monetary Policy Regimes and Beliefs

Are Inflation Expectations Rational

Essential Interest-Bearing Money