计量经济分析 = Econometric analysis

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Dismantling the Welfare State? Reagan, Thatcher, and the Politics of Retrenchment

Strategic Asset Allocation: Portfolio Choice for Long‐Term Investors.

Academics are increasingly using the concept of populism to make sense of current events such as the Brexit referendum and the Trump presidency. This is certainly a welcome development, but two sho...

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Studying Populism in Comparative Perspective: Reflections on the Contemporary and Future Research Agenda:

Facade democracy. Post-democracy. Zombie democracy. De-democratization. In proliferating such terms, many observers posit that we are living through a “crisis of democracy.” But what exactly is in crisis here? I argue that democracy’s present travails are best understood as expressions, under historically specific contemporary conditions, of a general tendency to political crisis that is intrinsic to capitalist societies. I elaborate this thesis in three steps. First, I propose a general account of “the political contradiction of capitalism” as such, without reference to any particular historical form. Then, I reconstruct Jurgen Habermas’s 1973 book, Legitimation Crisis, as an account of the form this political contradiction assumed in one specific phase of capitalist society, namely, the state-managed capitalism of the post–World War II era. Finally, I sketch an account of democracy’s current ills as expressions of capitalism’s political contradiction in its present, financialized phase.

Legitimation Crisis? On the Political Contradictions of Financialized Capitalism

Buying time: The delayed crisis of democratic capitalism

This paper examines the impact of participants’ age distribution on the asset allocation of Dutch pension funds, using a unique data set of pension fund investment plans for 2007. Theory predicts a negative effect of age on (strategic) equity exposures. We observe that pension funds do indeed take the average age of their participants into account. However, the average age of active participants has been incorporated much more strongly in investment behaviour than the average ages of retired or dormant participants. This suggests that both employers and employees, who dominate pension fund boards, tend to show more interest in active participants. A one-year higher average age in active participants leads to a significant and robust reduction in the strategic equity exposure by around 0.5 percentage point. Larger pension funds show a stronger age-equity exposure effect than smaller pension funds. This age-dependent asset allocation of pension funds aligns with the original life-cycle model by which young workers should invest more in equity than older workers because of their larger human capital. Other factors, viz. fund size, funding ratio, and average pension wealth of participants, influence equity exposure positively and significantly, in line with theory. Pension plan type and pension fund type have no significant impact.

/pdf/pension-funds-asset-allocation-and-participant-age-a-test-of-4suetq208j.pdf

Pension Funds’ Asset Allocation and Participant Age: A Test of the Life‐Cycle Model

This article examines the impact of participants’ age distribution on the asset allocation of Dutch pension funds, using a unique data set of pension fund investment plans for 2007. Theory predicts a negative effect of age on (strategic) equity exposures. We observe that a 1-year higher average age in active participants leads to a significant and robust reduction of the strategic equity exposure by around 0.5 percentage point. Larger pension funds show a stronger age-equity exposure effect. The average age of active participants influences investment behavior more strongly than the average age of all participants, which is plausible as retirees no longer possess any human capital.

/pdf/pension-funds-asset-allocation-and-participant-age-a-test-of-4mdcsfti0f.pdf

Pension Funds’ Asset Allocation and Participant Age: A Test of the Life-Cycle Model

The influence of negative newspaper coverage on consumer confidence: the Dutch case

In this article, we discuss the use of time series models in communication research. More specifically, we consider autoregressive and moving-average processes, which together constitute the autoregressive integrated moving average-framework (ARIMA). This approach provides a comprehensive framework to deal with the essential issue of stationarity and to model the dynamics of any time series by estimating the autocorrelation structure. Underlying the models are questions as to what extent news tends to reproduce itself and how news flows adjust after deviations from the normal news stream. The data illustrating the models consist of visibility-scores of the immigration issue in Dutch national newspapers. The empirical analysis demonstrates that the impact of immigration figures on this visibility is not significant when the ARIMA-framework is applied, while an analysis using OLS suggests a positive influence.

David Hollanders

Papers

Buying time: The delayed crisis of democratic capitalism

Pension Funds’ Asset Allocation and Participant Age: A Test of the Life‐Cycle Model

Pension Funds’ Asset Allocation and Participant Age: A Test of the Life-Cycle Model

The influence of negative newspaper coverage on consumer confidence: the Dutch case

Telling what yesterday's news might be tomorrow : Modeling média dynamics