This article provides an update on the global cancer burden using the GLOBOCAN 2020 estimates of cancer incidence and mortality produced by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. Worldwide, an estimated 19.3 million new cancer cases (18.1 million excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and almost 10.0 million cancer deaths (9.9 million excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) occurred in 2020. Female breast cancer has surpassed lung cancer as the most commonly diagnosed cancer, with an estimated 2.3 million new cases (11.7%), followed by lung (11.4%), colorectal (10.0 %), prostate (7.3%), and stomach (5.6%) cancers. Lung cancer remained the leading cause of cancer death, with an estimated 1.8 million deaths (18%), followed by colorectal (9.4%), liver (8.3%), stomach (7.7%), and female breast (6.9%) cancers. Overall incidence was from 2-fold to 3-fold higher in transitioned versus transitioning countries for both sexes, whereas mortality varied <2-fold for men and little for women. Death rates for female breast and cervical cancers, however, were considerably higher in transitioning versus transitioned countries (15.0 vs 12.8 per 100,000 and 12.4 vs 5.2 per 100,000, respectively). The global cancer burden is expected to be 28.4 million cases in 2040, a 47% rise from 2020, with a larger increase in transitioning (64% to 95%) versus transitioned (32% to 56%) countries due to demographic changes, although this may be further exacerbated by increasing risk factors associated with globalization and a growing economy. Efforts to build a sustainable infrastructure for the dissemination of cancer prevention measures and provision of cancer care in transitioning countries is critical for global cancer control.

https://acsjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.3322/caac.21660

Global Cancer Statistics 2020: GLOBOCAN Estimates of Incidence and Mortality Worldwide for 36 Cancers in 185 Countries.

OBJECTIVE —The goal of this study was to estimate the prevalence of diabetes and the number of people of all ages with diabetes for years 2000 and 2030. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS —Data on diabetes prevalence by age and sex from a limited number of countries were extrapolated to all 191 World Health Organization member states and applied to United Nations’ population estimates for 2000 and 2030. Urban and rural populations were considered separately for developing countries. RESULTS —The prevalence of diabetes for all age-groups worldwide was estimated to be 2.8% in 2000 and 4.4% in 2030. The total number of people with diabetes is projected to rise from 171 million in 2000 to 366 million in 2030. The prevalence of diabetes is higher in men than women, but there are more women with diabetes than men. The urban population in developing countries is projected to double between 2000 and 2030. The most important demographic change to diabetes prevalence across the world appears to be the increase in the proportion of people >65 years of age. CONCLUSIONS —These findings indicate that the “diabetes epidemic” will continue even if levels of obesity remain constant. Given the increasing prevalence of obesity, it is likely that these figures provide an underestimate of future diabetes prevalence.

https://www.who.int/diabetes/facts/en/diabcare0504.pdf

Global Prevalence of Diabetes: Estimates for the year 2000 and projections for 2030

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(12)61728-0.pdf

Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Background Global and regional projections of mortality and burden of disease by cause for the years 2000, 2010, and 2030 were published by Murray and Lopez in 1996 as part of the Global Burden of Disease project. These projections, which are based on 1990 data, continue to be widely quoted, although they are substantially outdated; in particular, they substantially underestimated the spread of HIV/AIDS. To address the widespread demand for information on likely future trends in global health, and thereby to support international health policy and priority setting, we have prepared new projections of mortality and burden of disease to 2030 starting from World Health Organization estimates of mortality and burden of disease for 2002. This paper describes the methods, assumptions, input data, and results. Methods and Findings Relatively simple models were used to project future health trends under three scenarios—baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic—based largely on projections of economic and social development, and using the historically observed relationships of these with cause-specific mortality rates. Data inputs have been updated to take account of the greater availability of death registration data and the latest available projections for HIV/AIDS, income, human capital, tobacco smoking, body mass index, and other inputs. In all three scenarios there is a dramatic shift in the distribution of deaths from younger to older ages and from communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional causes to noncommunicable disease causes. The risk of death for children younger than 5 y is projected to fall by nearly 50% in the baseline scenario between 2002 and 2030. The proportion of deaths due to noncommunicable disease is projected to rise from 59% in 2002 to 69% in 2030. Global HIV/AIDS deaths are projected to rise from 2.8 million in 2002 to 6.5 million in 2030 under the baseline scenario, which assumes coverage with antiretroviral drugs reaches 80% by 2012. Under the optimistic scenario, which also assumes increased prevention activity, HIV/AIDS deaths are projected to drop to 3.7 million in 2030. Total tobacco-attributable deaths are projected to rise from 5.4 million in 2005 to 6.4 million in 2015 and 8.3 million in 2030 under our baseline scenario. Tobacco is projected to kill 50% more people in 2015 than HIV/AIDS, and to be responsible for 10% of all deaths globally. The three leading causes of burden of disease in 2030 are projected to include HIV/AIDS, unipolar depressive disorders, and ischaemic heart disease in the baseline and pessimistic scenarios. Road traffic accidents are the fourth leading cause in the baseline scenario, and the third leading cause ahead of ischaemic heart disease in the optimistic scenario. Under the baseline scenario, HIV/AIDS becomes the leading cause of burden of disease in middle- and low-income countries by 2015. Conclusions These projections represent a set of three visions of the future for population health, based on certain explicit assumptions. Despite the wide uncertainty ranges around future projections, they enable us to appreciate better the implications for health and health policy of currently observed trends, and the likely impact of fairly certain future trends, such as the ageing of the population, the continued spread of HIV/AIDS in many regions, and the continuation of the epidemiological transition in developing countries. The results depend strongly on the assumption that future mortality trends in poor countries will have a relationship to economic and social development similar to those that have occurred in the higher-income countries.

/pdf/projections-of-global-mortality-and-burden-of-disease-from-16p7emcopm.pdf

Projections of Global Mortality and Burden of Disease from 2002 to 2030

世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

Surgical care is an important, yet often neglected component of child health in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This study examines the potential impact of scaling up surgical care at first-level hospitals in LMICs within the first 20 years of life.Epidemiological data from the global burden of disease 2019 Study and a counterfactual method developed for the disease control priorities; 3rd Edition were used to estimate the number of treatable deaths in the under 20 year age group if surgical care could be scaled up at first-level hospitals. Our model included three digestive diseases, four maternal and neonatal conditions, and seven common traumatic injuries.An estimated 314,609 (95% UI, 239,619-402,005) deaths per year in the under 20 year age group could be averted if surgical care were scaled up at first-level hospitals in LMICs. Most of the treatable deaths are in the under-5 year age group (80.9%) and relates to improved obstetrical care and its effect on reducing neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma. Injuries are the leading cause of treatable deaths after age 5 years. Sixty-one percent of the treatable deaths occur in lower middle-income countries. Overall, scaling up surgical care at first-level hospitals could avert 5·1% of the total deaths in children and adolescents under 20 years of age in LMICs per year.Improving the capacity of surgical services at first-level hospitals in LMICs has the potential to avert many deaths within the first 20 years of life. 

/pdf/estimates-of-treatable-deaths-within-the-first-20-years-of-1o6pef6t.pdf

Estimates of Treatable Deaths Within the First 20 Years of Life from Scaling Up Surgical Care at First-Level Hospitals in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

Many potentially treatable non-congenital and non-traumatic surgical conditions can occur during the first 8000 days of life and an estimated 85% of children in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) will develop one before 15 years old. This review summarizes the common routine surgical emergencies in children from LMICs and their effects on morbidity and mortality.A narrative review was undertaken to assess the epidemiology, treatment, and outcomes of common surgical emergencies that present within the first 8000 days (or 21.9 years) of life in LMICs. Available data on pediatric surgical emergency care in LMICs were aggregated.Outside of trauma, acute appendicitis, ileal perforation secondary to typhoid fever, and intestinal obstruction from intussusception and hernias continue to be the most common abdominal emergencies among children in LMICs. Musculoskeletal infections also contribute significantly to the surgical burden in children. These "neglected" conditions disproportionally affect children in LMICs and are due to delays in seeking care leading to late presentation and preventable complications. Pediatric surgical emergencies also necessitate heavy resource utilization in LMICs, where healthcare systems are already under strain.Delays in care and resource limitations in LMIC healthcare systems are key contributors to the complicated and emergent presentation of pediatric surgical disease. Timely access to surgery can not only prevent long-term impairments but also preserve the impact of public health interventions and decrease costs in the overall healthcare system. 

/pdf/routine-pediatric-surgical-emergencies-incidence-morbidity-1121if9m.pdf

Routine Pediatric Surgical Emergencies: Incidence, Morbidity, and Mortality During the 1st 8000 Days of Life-A Narrative Review.

Surgically Correctable Congenital Anomalies: Reducing Morbidity and Mortality in the First 8000 Days of Life.

HANS KEIDING of the University of Copenhagen has pointed out that Theorem (3.1) of our recent paper [1] is false as stated. In particular he has illustrated that when n = 2, using the notation of [1], one can construct a proper (1) correspondence Z: S2 -> P(R2) satisfying Definition (3.3) and such that Z(p) c 4th quadrant, for each p E S2. By Walras' Law this means Z'(p) 0 only when p = (1, 0). Thus, if S c Sn satisfies Z(p) s 0 for all p E S, then S = {(0, 1)}, which is not a subset of full dimensionality in Sn. We remedy this by adding to Definition (3.3) the economically innocuous assumption that if a good's price be zero the excess demand for it will be positive:

Dean T. Jamison

Papers

Estimates of Treatable Deaths Within the First 20 Years of Life from Scaling Up Surgical Care at First-Level Hospitals in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

Routine Pediatric Surgical Emergencies: Incidence, Morbidity, and Mortality During the 1st 8000 Days of Life-A Narrative Review.

Surgically Correctable Congenital Anomalies: Reducing Morbidity and Mortality in the First 8000 Days of Life.

The nature of equilibrium with semiordered preferences: a correction

Seizing opportunities to end TB: a call for ambition and optimism on World TB Day