GDP growth is often measured poorly for countries and rarely measured at all for cities or subnational regions. We propose a readily available proxy: satellite data on lights at night. We develop a statistical framework that uses lights growth to augment existing income growth measures, under the assumption that measurement error in using observed light as an indicator of income is uncorrelated with measurement error in national income accounts. For countries with good national income accounts data, information on growth of lights is of marginal value in estimating the true growth rate of income, while for countries with the worst national income accounts, the optimal estimate of true income growth is a composite with roughly equal weights. Among poor-data countries, our new estimate of average annual growth differs by as much as 3 percentage points from official data. Lights data also allow for measurement of income growth in sub- and supranational regions. As an application, we examine growth in Sub Saharan African regions over the last 17 years. We find that real incomes in non-coastal areas have grown faster by 1/3 of an annual percentage point than coastal areas; non-malarial areas have grown faster than malarial ones by 1/3 to 2/3 annual percent points; and primate city regions have grown no faster than hinterland areas. Such applications point toward a research program in which "empirical growth" need no longer be synonymous with "national income accounts."

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/nber_w15199.pdf?abstractid=1442664&mirid=1

Measuring Economic Growth from Outer Space

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Human pressures on the environment are changing spatially and temporally, with profound implications for the planet’s biodiversity and human economies. Here we use recently available data on infrastructure, land cover and human access into natural areas to construct a globally standardized measure of the cumulative human footprint on the terrestrial environment at 1 km2 resolution from 1993 to 2009. We note that while the human population has increased by 23% and the world economy has grown 153%, the human footprint has increased by just 9%. Still, 75% the planet’s land surface is experiencing measurable human pressures. Moreover, pressures are perversely intense, widespread and rapidly intensifying in places with high biodiversity. Encouragingly, we discover decreases in environmental pressures in the wealthiest countries and those with strong control of corruption. Clearly the human footprint on Earth is changing, yet there are still opportunities for conservation gains. Habitat loss and urbanization are primary components of human impact on the environment. Here, Venter et al.use global data on infrastructure, agriculture, and urbanization to show that the human footprint is growing slower than the human population, but footprints are increasing in biodiverse regions.

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Sixteen years of change in the global terrestrial human footprint and implications for biodiversity conservation

A pervasive issue in social and environmental research has been how to improve the quality of socioeconomic data in developing countries. Given the shortcomings of standard sources, the present study examines luminosity (measures of nighttime lights visible from space) as a proxy for standard measures of output (gross domestic product). We compare output and luminosity at the country level and at the 1° latitude × 1° longitude grid-cell level for the period 1992–2008. We find that luminosity has informational value for countries with low-quality statistical systems, particularly for those countries with no recent population or economic censuses.

https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/108/21/8589.full.pdf

Using luminosity data as a proxy for economic statistics

. The global methane (CH4) budget is becoming an increasingly important component for managing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. This relevance, due to a shorter atmospheric lifetime and a stronger warming potential than carbon dioxide, is challenged by the still unexplained changes of atmospheric CH4 over the past decade. Emissions and concentrations of CH4 are continuing to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-induced greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. Two major difficulties in reducing uncertainties come from the large variety of diffusive CH4 sources that overlap geographically, and from the destruction of CH4 by the very short-lived hydroxyl radical (OH). To address these difficulties, we have established a consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate research on the methane cycle, and producing regular (∼ biennial) updates of the global methane budget. This consortium includes atmospheric physicists and chemists, biogeochemists of surface and marine emissions, and socio-economists who study anthropogenic emissions. Following Kirschke et al. (2013), we propose here the first version of a living review paper that integrates results of top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up models, inventories and data-driven approaches (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, and inventories for anthropogenic emissions, data-driven extrapolations). For the 2003–2012 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by top-down inversions at 558 Tg CH4 yr−1, range 540–568. About 60 % of global emissions are anthropogenic (range 50–65 %). Since 2010, the bottom-up global emission inventories have been closer to methane emissions in the most carbon-intensive Representative Concentrations Pathway (RCP8.5) and higher than all other RCP scenarios. Bottom-up approaches suggest larger global emissions (736 Tg CH4 yr−1, range 596–884) mostly because of larger natural emissions from individual sources such as inland waters, natural wetlands and geological sources. Considering the atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget, it is likely that some of the individual emissions reported by the bottom-up approaches are overestimated, leading to too large global emissions. Latitudinal data from top-down emissions indicate a predominance of tropical emissions (∼ 64 % of the global budget, The most important source of uncertainty on the methane budget is attributable to emissions from wetland and other inland waters. We show that the wetland extent could contribute 30–40 % on the estimated range for wetland emissions. Other priorities for improving the methane budget include the following: (i) the development of process-based models for inland-water emissions, (ii) the intensification of methane observations at local scale (flux measurements) to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scale (surface networks and satellites) to constrain top-down inversions, (iii) improvements in the estimation of atmospheric loss by OH, and (iv) improvements of the transport models integrated in top-down inversions. The data presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center ( http://doi.org/10.3334/CDIAC/GLOBAL_METHANE_BUDGET_2016_V1.1 ) and the Global Carbon Project.

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The global methane budget 2000–2012

We have produced annual estimates of national and global gas flaring and gas flaring efficiency from 1994 through 2008 using low light imaging data acquired by the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP). Gas flaring is a widely used practice for the disposal of associated gas in oil production and processing facilities where there is insufficient infrastructure for utilization of the gas (primarily methane). Improved utilization of the gas is key to reducing global carbon emissions to the atmosphere. The DMSP estimates of flared gas volume are based on a calibration developed with a pooled set of reported national gas flaring volumes and data from individual flares. Flaring efficiency was calculated as the volume of flared gas per barrel of crude oil produced. Global gas flaring has remained largely stable over the past fifteen years, in the range of 140 to 170 billion cubic meters (BCM). Global flaring efficiency was in the seven to eight cubic meters per barrel from 1994 to 2005 and declined to 5.6 m3 per barrel by 2008. The 2008 gas flaring estimate of 139 BCM represents 21% of the natural gas consumption of the USA with a potential retail market value of $68 billion. The 2008 flaring added more than 278 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) into the atmosphere. The DMSP estimated gas flaring volumes indicate that global gas flaring has declined by 19% since 2005, led by gas flaring reductions in Russia and Nigeria, the two countries with the highest gas flaring levels. The flaring efficiency of both Russia and Nigeria improved from 2005 to 2008, suggesting that the reductions in gas flaring are likely the result of either improved utilization of the gas, reinjection, or direct venting of gas into the atmosphere, although the effect of uncertainties in the satellite data cannot be ruled out. It is anticipated that the capability to estimate gas flaring volumes based on satellite data will spur improved utilization of gas that was simply burnt as waste in previous years.

A Fifteen Year Record of Global Natural Gas Flaring Derived from Satellite Data

The VIIRS day/night band (DNB) high gain stage (HGS) pixel effective dwell time is in the range of 2–3 milliseconds (ms), which is about one third of the flicker cycle present in lighting powered by alternating current. Thus, if flicker is present, it induces random fluctuations in nightly DNB radiances. This results in increased variance in DNB temporal profiles. A survey of flicker characteristics conducted with high-speed camera data collected on a wide range of individual luminaires found that the flicker is most pronounced in high-intensity discharge (HID) lamps, such as high- and low-pressure sodium and metal halides. Flicker is muted, but detectable, in incandescent luminaires. Modern light-emitting diodes (LEDs) and fluorescent lights are often nearly flicker-free, thanks to high-quality voltage smoothing. DNB pixel footprints are about half a square kilometer and can contain vast numbers of individual luminaires, some of which flicker, while others do not. If many of the flickering lights are drawing from a common AC supplier, the flicker can be synchronized and leave an imprint on the DNB temporal profile. In contrast, multiple power supplies will throw the flickering out of synchronization, resulting in a cacophony with less radiance fluctuation. The examination of DNB temporal profiles for locations before and after the conversion of high-intensity discharge (HID) to LED streetlight conversions shows a reduction in the index of dispersion, calculated by dividing the annual variance by the mean. There are a number of variables that contribute to radiance variations in the VIIRS DNB, including the view angle, cloud optical thickness, atmospheric variability, snow cover, lunar illuminance, and the compilation of temporal profiles using pixels whose footprints are not perfectly aligned. It makes sense to adjust the DNB radiance for as many of these extraneous effects as possible. However, none of these adjustments will reduce the radiance instability introduced by flicker. Because flicker is known to affect organisms, including humans, the development of methods to detect and rate the strength of flickering from space will open up new areas of research on the biologic impacts of artificial lighting. Over time, there is a trend towards the reduction of flicker in outdoor lighting through the replacement of HID with low-flicker LED sources. This study indicates that the effects of LED conversions on the brightness and steadiness of outdoor lighting can be analyzed with VIIRS DNB temporal profiles.

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Dee W. Pack

Papers

A Fifteen Year Record of Global Natural Gas Flaring Derived from Satellite Data

The VIIRS Day/Night Band: A Flicker Meter in Space?