Coronavirus disease 2019 obliged many countries to apply lockdown policies to contain the spread of infection. The restrictions in Israel included limitations on movement, reduction of working capacity, and closure of the educational system. The present study focused on patients treated at a referral center for burns in northern Israel. Their goal was to investigate temporal variations in burn injuries during this period. Data were retrospectively extracted from the medical records of burn patients treated at our hospital between March 14, 2020 and April 20, 2020 (ie, the period of aggravated lockdown). Data from this period were compared with that from paralleling periods between 2017 and 2019. During the lockdown and paralleling periods, 178 patients were treated for burn injuries, of whom 44% were under 18. Although no restrictions were enforced during the virus outbreak period with regard to seeking medical care, we noticed a decrease in the number of patients admitted to the emergency room for all reasons. Of particular interest was a 66% decrease in the number of adult burn patients (P < .0001). Meanwhile, among the pediatric population, no significant decrease was observed. Nonetheless, subgroups with higher susceptibility to burn injuries included children aged 2 to 5 years (56.3% vs 23.8%, P = .016) and female patients from all pediatric age groups (57.1% vs 25%, P = .027). These findings may be explained by the presumably busier kitchen and dining areas during the lockdown. Overall, the study results can assist with building a stronger understanding of varying burn injuries and with developing educational and preventive strategies.

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Trends in Burn Injuries in Northern Israel during the COVID-19 Lockdown.

Air pollutants have been associated with various adverse health effects, including increased rates of hospital admissions and emergency room visits. Although numerous time-series studies and case-crossover studies have estimated associations between day-to-day variation in pollutant levels and mortality/morbidity records, studies on geographic variations in emergency department use and the spatial effects in their associations with air pollution exposure are rare. We focused on the elderly who visited emergency room for cardiovascular related disease (CVD) in 2011. Using spatially and temporally resolved multi-pollutant exposures, we investigated the effect of short-term exposures to ambient air pollution on emergency department utilization. We developed two statistical models with and without spatial random effects within a hierarchical Bayesian framework to capture the spatial heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation remaining in emergency department utilization. Although the cardiovascular effect of spatially homogeneous pollutants, such as PM2.5 and ozone, was unchanged, we found the cardiovascular effect of NO
 $$_2$$
 was pronounced after accounting for the spatially correlated structure in emergency department utilization. We also identified areas with high ED utilization for CVD among the elderly and assessed the uncertainty associated with risk estimates. We assessed the short-term effect of multi-pollutants on cardiovascular risk of the elderly and demonstrated the use of community multiscale air quality model-derived spatially and temporally resolved multi-pollutant exposures to an epidemiological study. Our results indicate that NO
 $$_2$$
 was significantly associated with the elevated ED utilization for CVD among the elderly.

/pdf/ambient-air-quality-and-spatio-temporal-patterns-of-38b1dk6lmu.pdf

Ambient air quality and spatio-temporal patterns of cardiovascular emergency department visits

Objective : This research aimed to (i) assess the effects of time-varying predictors (day of the week, month, year, holiday, temperature) on daily ED presentations and (ii) compare the accuracy of five methods for forecasting ED presentations, including four statistical methods and a machine learning approach. Methods : Predictors of ED presentations were assessed using generalised additive models (GAMs), generalised linear models, multiple linear regression models, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models and random forest. The accuracy of short-term (14 days), mid-term (30 days) and long-term (365 days) forecasts were compared using two measures of forecasting error. Results : The data are the numbers of presentations to public hospital EDs in South-East Queensland, Australia, from 2009 to 2015. ED presentations are largely affected by year of presentation, and to a lesser extent by month, day of the week and holidays. Maximum daily temperature is also a significant predictor of ED presentations. Of the four statistical models considered, the GAM had the greatest forecasting accuracy, and produced consistent and coherent forecasts, likely due to its flexibility in modelling complex time-varying effects. The random forest machine learning approach had the lowest forecasting accuracy, likely due to overfitting the data. Conclusions : Calendar and temperature variables, not previously considered in the Australian literature, were found to significantly impact ED presentations. This study also demonstrates the potential of GAMs as a dual explanatory and forecasting method for the modelling, and more accurate prediction, of ED presentations.

Forecasting daily counts of patient presentations in Australian emergency departments using statistical models with time-varying predictors

Socioeconomic determinants of pediatric asthma emergency department visits under regional economic development in western New York.

Background: Patients admitted to acute care hospitals on weekends have poorer outcomes than those admitted on weekdays, and patients admitted to hospitals for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) on weekends have a higher mortality rate than those admitted during the week. Very few studies have examined weekend presentation for patients with AMI with respect to mortality in the emergency department (ED).

Objective: The purpose of this research was to determine if weekend and holiday presentation is associated with increased mortality in EDs among patients with AMI in New Jersey.

Methods: A retrospective cohort and three data sources representing all hospitals in New Jersey, including patients 18–90 years of age who presented to the ED with symptoms of AMI from January 1, 2008 to January 31, 2010, were used. “Weekend” was defined as Saturday and Sunday, and “holiday” was defined as one of the six major U.S. holidays. Propensity score matching with probit regression was used to estimate the unbiased treatment effect of weekend/holiday presentation on mortality in the ED.

Results: A total of 1,343 patients with a diagnosis of AMI presented to 73 EDs in New Jersey. Of these, 382 (28%) presented on a weekend/holiday and 961 (72%) during weekday hours. After propensity score matching and using probit regression, weekend/holiday presentation was significantly associated with mortality (b = 0.30, 95% CI [0.03, 0.57]). Other statistically significant covariates include patient age (b = 0.03, 95% CI [0.02, 0.04], hospital technology status (b = 0.75, 95% CI [0.20, 1.30]), and nurse staffing (b = −0.08, 95% CI [−0.13, −0.04]).

Discussion: Weekend/holiday presentation to the ED for AMI was associated with increased mortality. The effect may be related to the limited availability of resources on weekend/holidays compared to weekdays. Future studies should examine potential variations of resources, nursing workload, and education and expertise of healthcare providers in the ED during the weekend.

Dianne Loomis

Papers

Medical Mondays: ED Utilization for Medicaid Recipients Depends on the Day of the Week, Season, and Holidays