Showing papers by "Dilip Ratha published in 2010"

Migration and Remittances Factbook 2011

Abstract: This is the second edition of the Migration and Remittances Factbook. This report provides a comprehensive picture of emigration, skilled emigration, immigration, and remittance flows for 210 countries and 15 country groups, drawing on authoritative, publicly available data. The current edition of the factbook updates the information in the popular 2008 edition with additional data for 71 countries collected from various sources, including national censuses, labor force surveys, population registers, and other national sources. In addition, it provides selected socioeconomic characteristics such as population, labor force, age dependency ratio, gross national income (GNI) per capita, and poverty headcount for each country and regional grouping. More frequent and timely monitoring of migration and remittance trends can provide policy makers, researchers, and the development community with the tools to make informed decisions. The factbook makes an important contribution to this effort by providing the latest available data and facts on migration and remittance trends worldwide in a comprehensive and readily accessible format.

Diaspora bonds: tapping the diaspora during difficult times

Abstract: India and Israel have raised over US$35 billion by tapping into the wealth of their diaspora communities. These diaspora bonds represent a stable and cheap source of external finance, often when countries lost access to international capital markets. For diaspora investors, these bonds offer the opportunity to help their country of origin while also providing an investment opportunity. The potential for diaspora bonds is significant for many countries with large diasporas abroad. However, diaspora bond issuance from countries with weak governance and high sovereign risk may require support for institutional capacity building and credit enhancement from multilateral or bilateral agencies. Haiti, for instance, could raise several hundred million dollars by issuing diaspora bonds provided a guarantee structure is created to build trust in the country's public institutions.

Outlook for Remittance Flows 2010-11 : Remittance Flows to Developing Countries Remained Resilient in 2009, Expected to Recover During 2010-11

Abstract: Officially recorded remittance flows to developing countries reached $316 billion in 2009, down 6 percent from $336 billion in 2008. With improved prospects for the global economy, remittance flows to developing countries are expected to increase by 6.2 percent in 2010 and 7.1 percent in 2011, a faster pace of recovery in 2010 than our earlier forecasts. The decline in remittance flows to Latin America that began with the onset of financial crisis in the United States appears to have bottomed out since the last quarter of 2009. Remittance flows to South Asia (and to a smaller extent East Asia) continued to grow in 2009 although at markedly slower pace than in the pre-crisis years. Flows to Europe and Central Asia and Middle-East and North Africa fell more than expected in 2009. These regional trends reveal that: (a) the more diverse the migration destinations, the more resilient are remittances; (b) the lower the barriers to labor mobility, the stronger the link between remittances and economic cycles in that corridor; and (c) exchange rate movements produce valuation effects, but they also influence the consumption-investment motive for remittances. The resilience of remittances during the financial crisis has highlighted their importance in countries facing external financing gaps. Remittances are now being factored into sovereign ratings in middle-income countries and debt sustainability analysis in low-income countries. Countries are also becoming increasingly aware of the income and wealth of overseas diaspora as potential sources of capital. Some countries are showing interest in financial instruments such as diaspora bonds and securitization of future remittances to raise international capital.

Migrant Remittance Flows: Findings from a Global Survey of Central Banks

Abstract: Drawing on the findings from responses to a survey conducted in 2008-09 from 114 central banks worldwide (of which 33 are in Africa), this paper aims to better understand how central banks and other national institutions regulate and collect data and other information on cross-border remittance flows. Findings indicate that, although the vast majority of countries, in both sending and receiving countries, collect data on remittances, and 43 percent of receiving countries estimate informal remittances, there is a need for more frequent and better coordinated data collection, both across national institutions and among different divisions within the same national institution, as well as between countries. Survey results also indicate that many new market entrants' transfer activities are unregulated. Countries must take into account new channels and technologies, such as mobile phone service providers, in monitoring remittance flows. It will be important for national regulatory authorities to work closely with mobile telecoms network operators to strike the right regulatory balance, to better understand these new channels' associated risks and fully tap their potential for fostering inexpensive, efficient remittance transfer services. The high cost of transfers was cited in the survey as the top factor inhibiting migrants from using formal channels. Many countries, particularly in Africa, have made progress in rendering exclusivity contracts illegal, which can help increase competitiveness and reduce transfer costs. Further policy reforms and initiatives are needed to address the high costs of remittances.

Outlook for remittance flows 2011-12 : recovery after the crisis, but risks lie ahead

Abstract: Officially recorded remittance flows to developing countries are estimated to increase by 6 percent to $325 billion in 2010. This marks a healthy recovery from a 5.5 percent decline registered in 2009. Remittance flows are expected to increase by 6.2 percent in 2011 and 8.1 percent in 2012, to reach $374 billion by 2012. This outlook for remittance flows, however, is subject to the risks of a fragile global economic recovery, volatile currency and commodity price movements, and rising anti-immigration sentiment in many destination countries. From a medium-term view, three major trends are apparent: (a) a high level of unemployment in the migrant-receiving countries has prompted restrictions on new immigration; (b) the application of mobile phone technology for domestic remittances has failed to spread to cross-border remittances; and (c) developing countries are becoming more aware of the potential for leveraging remittances and diaspora wealth for raising development finance.

Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Migration and Remittances

Abstract: Remittances to developing countries are estimated to have declined by 6.1 percent in 2009 as a result of weak job markets in major destination countries. Although new migration has fallen, it is still positive. The stock of international migrants, therefore, has continued to grow and remittances have remained resilient. Going forward, remittance flows to Latin America are expected to recover, whereas those to East Asia and South Asia are likely to slow. Policy responses should involve efforts to facilitate migration and remittances to make these flows cheaper, safer, and more productive for both the sending and the receiving countries.

Forecasting migrant remittances during the global financial crisis

Abstract: The financial crisis has highlighted the need for forecasts of remittance flows in many developing countries where these flows have proved to be a lifeline to the poor people and the economy. This note describes a simple methodology for forecasting country-level remittance flows in a manner consistent with the medium-term outlook for the global economy. Remittances are assumed to depend on bilateral migration stocks and income levels in the host country and the origin country. Changes in remittance costs, shifts in remittance channels, global exchange rate movements, and unpredictable immigration controls in the migrant-destination countries pose risks to the forecasts. Much remains to be done to improve the forecast methodology, data on bilateral flows, and high-frequency monitoring of migration and remittance flows.

Forecasting Migrant Remittances During the Global Financial Crisis

Abstract: The financial crisis has highlighted the need for forecasts of remittance flows in many developing countries where these flows have proved to be a lifeline to the poor people and the economy. This note describes a simple methodology for forecasting country-level remittance flows in a manner consistent with the medium-term outlook for the global economy. Remittances are assumed to depend on bilateral migration stocks and income levels in the host country and the origin country. Changes in remittance costs, shifts in remittance channels, global exchange rate movements, and unpredictable immigration controls in the migrant-destination countries pose risks to the forecasts. Much remains to be done to improve the forecast methodology, data on bilateral flows, and high-frequency monitoring of migration and remittance flows.

Diaspora Bonds: Tapping the Diaspora During Difficult Times

Abstract: India and Israel have raised over US$35 billion by tapping into the wealth of their diaspora communities. These diaspora bonds represent a stable and cheap source of external finance, often when countries lost access to international capital markets. For diaspora investors, these bonds offer the opportunity to help their country of origin while also providing an investment opportunity. The potential for diaspora bonds is significant for many countries with large diasporas abroad. However, diaspora bond issuance from countries with weak governance and high sovereign risk may require support for institutional capacity building and credit enhancement from multilateral or bilateral agencies. Haiti, for instance, could raise several hundred million dollars by issuing diaspora bonds provided a guarantee structure is created to build trust in the country's public institutions.

Outlook for Remittance Flows 2011-12 : Recovery After the Crisis, But Risks Lie Ahead

Abstract: Officially recorded remittance flows to developing countries are estimated to increase by 6 percent to $325 billion in 2010. This marks a healthy recovery from a 5.5 percent decline registered in 2009. Remittance flows are expected to increase by 6.2 percent in 2011 and 8.1 percent in 2012, to reach $374 billion by 2012. This outlook for remittance flows, however, is subject to the risks of a fragile global economic recovery, volatile currency and commodity price movements, and rising anti-immigration sentiment in many destination countries. From a medium-term view, three major trends are apparent: (a) a high level of unemployment in the migrant-receiving countries has prompted restrictions on new immigration; (b) the application of mobile phone technology for domestic remittances has failed to spread to cross-border remittances; and (c) developing countries are becoming more aware of the potential for leveraging remittances and diaspora wealth for raising development finance.