How has Japan become a major economic power, a world leader in the automotive and electronics industries? What is the secret of their success? The consensus has been that, though the Japanese are not particularly innovative, they are exceptionally skilful at imitation, at improving products that already exist. But now two leading Japanese business experts, Ikujiro Nonaka and Hiro Takeuchi, turn this conventional wisdom on its head: Japanese firms are successful, they contend, precisely because they are innovative, because they create new knowledge and use it to produce successful products and technologies. Examining case studies drawn from such firms as Honda, Canon, Matsushita, NEC, 3M, GE, and the U.S. Marines, this book reveals how Japanese companies translate tacit to explicit knowledge and use it to produce new processes, products, and services.

The knowledge-creating company : how Japanese companies create the dynamics of innovation

In this book, Andrew Harvey sets out to provide a unified and comprehensive theory of structural time series models. Unlike the traditional ARIMA models, structural time series models consist explicitly of unobserved components, such as trends and seasonals, which have a direct interpretation. As a result the model selection methodology associated with structural models is much closer to econometric methodology. The link with econometrics is made even closer by the natural way in which the models can be extended to include explanatory variables and to cope with multivariate time series. From the technical point of view, state space models and the Kalman filter play a key role in the statistical treatment of structural time series models. The book includes a detailed treatment of the Kalman filter. This technique was originally developed in control engineering, but is becoming increasingly important in fields such as economics and operations research. This book is concerned primarily with modelling economic and social time series, and with addressing the special problems which the treatment of such series poses. The properties of the models and the methodological techniques used to select them are illustrated with various applications. These range from the modellling of trends and cycles in US macroeconomic time series to to an evaluation of the effects of seat belt legislation in the UK.

Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter

Social Network Analysis

Preface 1. Decision-Theoretic Foundations 1.1 Game Theory, Rationality, and Intelligence 1.2 Basic Concepts of Decision Theory 1.3 Axioms 1.4 The Expected-Utility Maximization Theorem 1.5 Equivalent Representations 1.6 Bayesian Conditional-Probability Systems 1.7 Limitations of the Bayesian Model 1.8 Domination 1.9 Proofs of the Domination Theorems Exercises 2. Basic Models 2.1 Games in Extensive Form 2.2 Strategic Form and the Normal Representation 2.3 Equivalence of Strategic-Form Games 2.4 Reduced Normal Representations 2.5 Elimination of Dominated Strategies 2.6 Multiagent Representations 2.7 Common Knowledge 2.8 Bayesian Games 2.9 Modeling Games with Incomplete Information Exercises 3. Equilibria of Strategic-Form Games 3.1 Domination and Ratonalizability 3.2 Nash Equilibrium 3.3 Computing Nash Equilibria 3.4 Significance of Nash Equilibria 3.5 The Focal-Point Effect 3.6 The Decision-Analytic Approach to Games 3.7 Evolution. Resistance. and Risk Dominance 3.8 Two-Person Zero-Sum Games 3.9 Bayesian Equilibria 3.10 Purification of Randomized Strategies in Equilibria 3.11 Auctions 3.12 Proof of Existence of Equilibrium 3.13 Infinite Strategy Sets Exercises 4. Sequential Equilibria of Extensive-Form Games 4.1 Mixed Strategies and Behavioral Strategies 4.2 Equilibria in Behavioral Strategies 4.3 Sequential Rationality at Information States with Positive Probability 4.4 Consistent Beliefs and Sequential Rationality at All Information States 4.5 Computing Sequential Equilibria 4.6 Subgame-Perfect Equilibria 4.7 Games with Perfect Information 4.8 Adding Chance Events with Small Probability 4.9 Forward Induction 4.10 Voting and Binary Agendas 4.11 Technical Proofs Exercises 5. Refinements of Equilibrium in Strategic Form 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Perfect Equilibria 5.3 Existence of Perfect and Sequential Equilibria 5.4 Proper Equilibria 5.5 Persistent Equilibria 5.6 Stable Sets 01 Equilibria 5.7 Generic Properties 5.8 Conclusions Exercises 6. Games with Communication 6.1 Contracts and Correlated Strategies 6.2 Correlated Equilibria 6.3 Bayesian Games with Communication 6.4 Bayesian Collective-Choice Problems and Bayesian Bargaining Problems 6.5 Trading Problems with Linear Utility 6.6 General Participation Constraints for Bayesian Games with Contracts 6.7 Sender-Receiver Games 6.8 Acceptable and Predominant Correlated Equilibria 6.9 Communication in Extensive-Form and Multistage Games Exercises Bibliographic Note 7. Repeated Games 7.1 The Repeated Prisoners Dilemma 7.2 A General Model of Repeated Garnet 7.3 Stationary Equilibria of Repeated Games with Complete State Information and Discounting 7.4 Repeated Games with Standard Information: Examples 7.5 General Feasibility Theorems for Standard Repeated Games 7.6 Finitely Repeated Games and the Role of Initial Doubt 7.7 Imperfect Observability of Moves 7.8 Repeated Wines in Large Decentralized Groups 7.9 Repeated Games with Incomplete Information 7.10 Continuous Time 7.11 Evolutionary Simulation of Repeated Games Exercises 8. Bargaining and Cooperation in Two-Person Games 8.1 Noncooperative Foundations of Cooperative Game Theory 8.2 Two-Person Bargaining Problems and the Nash Bargaining Solution 8.3 Interpersonal Comparisons of Weighted Utility 8.4 Transferable Utility 8.5 Rational Threats 8.6 Other Bargaining Solutions 8.7 An Alternating-Offer Bargaining Game 8.8 An Alternating-Offer Game with Incomplete Information 8.9 A Discrete Alternating-Offer Game 8.10 Renegotiation Exercises 9. Coalitions in Cooperative Games 9.1 Introduction to Coalitional Analysis 9.2 Characteristic Functions with Transferable Utility 9.3 The Core 9.4 The Shapkey Value 9.5 Values with Cooperation Structures 9.6 Other Solution Concepts 9.7 Colational Games with Nontransferable Utility 9.8 Cores without Transferable Utility 9.9 Values without Transferable Utility Exercises Bibliographic Note 10. Cooperation under Uncertainty 10.1 Introduction 10.2 Concepts of Efficiency 10.3 An Example 10.4 Ex Post Inefficiency and Subsequent Oilers 10.5 Computing Incentive-Efficient Mechanisms 10.6 Inscrutability and Durability 10.7 Mechanism Selection by an Informed Principal 10.8 Neutral Bargaining Solutions 10.9 Dynamic Matching Processes with Incomplete Information Exercises Bibliography Index

博弈论 : 矛盾冲突分析 = Game theory : analysis of conflict

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The Theory of Industrial Organization

Investment in Capital Markets creates a strategic vision on the financial capital investment in the capital markets with the aim to get an increased return premium in the short and long time periods. The book is written with a main goal to explain the pros and cons of the financial capital investment in the capital markets, discussing the sophisticated investment concepts and techniques in the simple understandable readable general format language. We would like to highlight the three interesting facts about the book: 1. It is centered on the consideration of the modern investment products, the investment vehicles and the investment mediums for the financial capital investment in the capital markets; 2. It is focused on the financial risk calculation and mitigation techniques for the financial capital investment in the financial capital markets. 3. It is aimed to describe the quantum winning virtuous investment strategies creation and execution techniques during the financial capital investment in the capital markets. The investors, financiers, economists, financial analysts, financial traders, financial advisers, lawmakers, policy analysts, subject experts, professors, and students will certainly enjoy a breathtaking splendid learning journey with the explained new ideas, established concepts and outlined future prospects toward the financial capital investment in the capital markets with the aim to get an increased return premium in the short and long time periods.

Investment in capital markets

In the Schumpeterian creative disruption age, the authors firmly believe that an increasing application of electronic technologies in the finances opens a big number of new unlimited opportunities toward a new era of the ultra high frequency electronic trading in the foreign currencies exchange markets in the conditions of the discrete information absorption processes in the diffusion - type financial systems with the induced nonlinearities. Going from the academic literature, we discuss the probability theory and the statistics theory application to accurately characterize the trends in the foreign currencies exchange rates dynamics in the short and long time periods. We consider the financial analysis methods, including the macroeconomic analysis, market microstructure analysis and order flow analysis, to forecast the volatility in the foreign currencies exchange rates dynamics in the short and long time periods. We discuss the application of the Stratanovich-Kalman-Bucy filtering algorithm in the Stratanovich – Kalman – Bucy filter and the particle filter to accurately estimate the time series and predict the trends in the foreign currencies exchange rates dynamics in the short and long time periods. We research the influence by discrete information absorption on the ultra high frequency electronic trading strategies creation and execution during the electronic trading in the foreign currencies exchange markets. We formulate the Ledenyov law on the limiting frequency (the cut-off frequency) for the ultra high frequency electronic trading in the foreign currencies exchange markets.

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On the winning virtuous strategies for ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets

The research explores a scientific problem on the quantum strategy creation and implementation by the interlocking interconnecting directors in the boards of directors in the modern organizations at the time of globalization, solving the winning virtuous strategy search, the most effective strategy selection and the organizational strategy optimization paradigms. We know that, having the different mindset architectures, the directors in the interlocking interconnecting directors networks in the boards of directors in the modern organizations complete the information sensing, filtering, processing, resonant absorption, analysis, strategy decision making processes with the aim to create and implement the most effective optimal winning virtuous organization development strategy, applying the early researched deductive, inductive and abductive logics. We propose that the new quantum strategy can be considered as a most effective optimal winning virtuous organizational strategy, allowing the board of directors to set a right direction vector toward the business development, to establish a necessary actions plan and to reach the sustainable business profitability goals in the economies of the scales and scopes. We explain that the quantum strategy can be formulated, going from: 1) the new quantum logic principles in the Copenhagen interpretation in the quantum mechanics science, 2) the deductive, inductive and abductive logics existing knowledge in the philosophy science, and 3) the modern strategy research findings in the business administration science. We think that the directors in the boards of directors in the complex organizations can implement the quantum strategies with the ultimate goal to build the prosperous organizations in the economies of the scale and scope at the time of the disruptive changes and opportunities by the globalization.

/pdf/quantum-strategy-creation-by-interlocking-interconnecting-151j42tz8i.pdf

Quantum strategy creation by interlocking interconnecting directors in boards of directors in modern organizations at time of globalization

The accurate forecast of the foreign currencies exchange rates at the ultra high frequency electronic trading in the foreign currencies exchange markets is a main topic of our research: 1) the present state of the foreign currencies exchange markets in Asia, Europe and North America; 2) the research review on the classic forecast techniques of the foreign currencies exchange rates dynamics in the foreign currencies exchange markets in the classic finances theory; 3) the description on the quantum forecast techniques of the foreign currencies exchange rates dynamics in the foreign currencies exchange markets with the application of both the wave function and the time dependent / time independent wave equation in the quantum finances theory; 4) the derivation of the time dependent / time independent wave equation in the quantum finances theory; 5) the creation of the quantum system state prediction algorithm, based on both the wave function and the time dependent / time independent wave equation in the quantum finances theory; 6) the discussion on the developed software program with the embedded quantum system state prediction algorithm, using both the wave function and the time dependent / time independent wave equation in the quantum finances theory; 7) the final words on the perspectives of the quantum forecast techniques of the foreign currencies exchange rates dynamics in the foreign currencies exchange markets, applying both the wave function and the time dependent / time independent wave equation in the quantum finances theory.

/pdf/wave-function-method-to-forecast-foreign-currencies-exchange-33ua3pwdpo.pdf

Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets

We make the business at the time of great transition from the digital disruption to the quantum disruption, when the multiple quantum inventions in the natural/social sciences lead to the quantum leaps realization by the modern firms in the hi-tech industries in the quantum creative economies of the scales and scopes in the quantum disruption age. At this opportunities/challenges time period, a chairman of the board of directors must take a personal responsibility for the creation and execution of the quantum strategy - a most effective winning virtuous organizational strategy - toward the optimal business model design/discovery for the prosperous effective organization in the quantum creative economies of the scales and scopes in the quantum disruption century. The quantum strategy uses the quantum strategy search algorithm, applying the quantum logic (the probabilistic logic) on the top of the inductive, deductive and abductive logics (the value based logics) with the purpose to create the most effective optimal winning virtuous organizational strategy by the chairman of the board of directors with the interlocking interconnecting directors in the modern firms in the quantum creative economies of the scales and scopes in the quantum disruption time. We study the case on the quantum strategy formulation and execution by a chairmen of the boards of directors with the interlocking interconnecting directors in the modern firms such as Alphabet Inc, expressing a great confidence that the quantum strategies will continue to be implemented by the prosperous organizations to increase their valuations in the quantum creative economies of the scales and scopes in the quantum disruption century.

Dimitri O. Ledenyov

Papers

Investment in capital markets

On the winning virtuous strategies for ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets

Quantum strategy creation by interlocking interconnecting directors in boards of directors in modern organizations at time of globalization

Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets

Quantum strategy synthesis by Alphabet Inc