This volume, written by leading authorities from Eastern Europe, outlines the history of the health and environmental consequences of the Chernobyl disaster. Although there has been much discussion concerning the impacts of nuclear accidents, and Chernobyl in particular, never before has there been a comprehensive presentation of all the available information concerning the health and environmental effects of the low dose radioactive contaminants that were emitted from the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant. The official discussions emanating from the IAEA and associated UN agencies (e.g. the Chernobyl Forum reports) have largely downplayed or ignored many of the findings reported in the Eastern European scientific literature and as a consequence these reports have erred on the side of negative findings simply because much of what was known was not included in their assessments. This new book provides a complete and extensive summary of all known research, including that published in Russian and Ukrainian, and provides new insights to the likely long term health and environmental consequences of nuclear accidents. NOTE: Annals volumes are available for sale as individual books or as a journal. For information on institutional journal subscriptions, please visit www.blackwellpublishing.com/nyas. ACADEMY MEMBERS: Please contact the New York Academy of Sciences directly to place your order (www.nyas.org). Members of the New York Academy of Science receive full-text access to the Annals online and discounts on print volumes. Please visit http://www.nyas.org/MemberCenter/Join.aspx for more information about becoming a member.

https://wonkythinking.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Charles-review.pdf

Chernobyl: Consequences of the Catastrophe for People and the Environment

Radiation is known to be mutagenic. The present study updates a 10-y-old study regarding pregnancy outcome and the health of offspring of women previously exposed to radioiodine (131I) during thyroid carcinoma treatment, by doubling the number of pregnancies that occurred after exposure. Methods: Data on 2,673 pregnancies were obtained by interviewing female patients who were treated for thyroid carcinoma but had not received significant external radiation to the ovaries. Results: The incidence of miscarriages was 10% before any treatment for thyroid cancer; this percentage increased after surgery for thyroid cancer, both before (20%) and after (19%) 131I treatment, with no variation according to the cumulative dose. In contrast to previously reported data, miscarriages were not significantly more frequent in women treated with radioiodine during the year before conception, not even in women who had received more than 370 MBq during that year. The incidences of stillbirths, preterm births, low birth weight, congenital malformations, and death during the first year of life were not significantly different before and after 131I therapy. The incidences of thyroid and nonthyroid cancers were similar in children born either before or after the mother9s exposure to radioiodine. Conclusion: There is no evidence that exposure to radioiodine affects the outcomes of subsequent pregnancies and offspring. The question as to whether the incidences of malformations and thyroid and nonthyroid cancers are related to gonadal irradiation remains to be established. The doubling dose is still being heatedly debated, and the value of 1 Gy as the doubling dose in humans should be reevaluated.

https://jnm.snmjournals.org/content/jnumed/49/5/845.full.pdf

Therapeutic Administration of 131I for Differentiated Thyroid Cancer: Radiation Dose to Ovaries and Outcome of Pregnancies

Little is known about the response behavior of parents whose children are ex-posed to an early-life shock. We interpret the prenatal exposure of the Austrian 1986 cohort to radioactive fallout from the Chernobyl accident as a negative hu-man capital shock and examine their parents' response behavior. To identify causal effects, we can rely on exogenous variation in the exposure to radioactive fallout (over time and) between communities due to geographic differences in precipitation at the time of the accident. Our design-based approach (which ac-counts for culling effects) provides robust empirical evidence for compensating investment behavior. Families with low socioeconomic status reduce their family size, while families with higher status respond with reduced maternal labor sup-ply. Our results urge caution in the interpretation of estimates of the long-term effects of early-life shocks on children. These estimates should only be interpreted as reduced-form estimates, and one has to account for parental response behav-ior to reach a deeper understanding on the relationship between early-life shocks and the formation of human capital. In the case of our application, we can inter-pret the estimates as the lower bound of the biological effect. For exposed chil-dren from higher socioeconomic backgrounds, there are no detrimental effects discernable. In contrast, exposed children from lower socioeconomic backgrounds have significantly worse human capital outcomes as young adults. This suggests that compensating investment by parents with higher socioeconomic status is relatively more effective.

/pdf/parental-response-to-early-human-capital-shocks-evidence-1fu2kakgom.pdf

Parental response to early human capital shocks: Evidence from the Chernobyl accident

Possible effects of Chernobyl fallout on outcome of pregnancy in Finland were evaluated in a nationwide follow-up study. The outcomes were the rate of live births and stillbirths, pregnancy loss, and induced abortions by municipality. Exposure was assessed based on nationwide surveys of radiation dose rate from the Chernobyl fallout, from both external and internal exposures. Using these measurements, we estimated the monthly dose rate for each of the 455 Finnish municipalities. On average, the dose rate from Chernobyl fallout reached 50 microSv per month in May 1986--a doubling of the natural background radiation. In the most heavily affected area, 4 times the normal background dose rates were recorded. Given the underlying regional differences in live birth, stillbirth, and abortion rates, we used longitudinal analysis comparing changes over time within municipalities. A temporary decline in the live birth rate had already begun before 1986, with no clear relationship to the level of fallout. A statistically significant increase in spontaneous abortions with dose of radiation was observed. No marked changes in induced abortions or stillbirths were observed. The decrease in the live birth rate is probably not a biological effect of radiation, but more likely related to public concerns of the fallout. The effect on spontaneous abortions should be interpreted with caution, because of potential bias or confounding. Further, there is little support in the epidemiologic literature on effects of very low doses of radiation on pregnancy outcome.

Chernobyl fallout and outcome of pregnancy in Finland.

Background Numerous investigations have been carried out concerning the possible impact of the Chernobyl accident, in April 1986, on the prevalence of anomalies at birth and on perinatal mortality. The accident has contaminated Eastern Europe more heavily than Western Europe. If there was an effect of the radioactive contamination on perinatal mortality or stillbirth proportions one would expect to find it more pronounced in Eastern Europe as compared to Western Europe. We therefore studied long-term time trends in European stillbirth proportions. Methods Linear logistic regression was applied to model the time trends in stillbirth proportions. Dummy variables were used to account for effects that can be associated with certain years or locations. A synoptic logistic regression model is suggested for the western, central, and eastern parts of Europe. Results There is a marked differential effect in the long-term stillbirth time trends between Western Europe (Belgium, France, Great Britain, Iceland, Ireland, Luxembourg, Portugal, Spain), Central Europe (Austria, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Norway, Switzerland), and Eastern Europe represented by four countries (Greece, Hungary, Poland, Sweden). In contrast to the western and central European trends, the eastern European trend exhibits an absolute increase of the stillbirth proportion in 1986 as compared with 1985 and an apparent upward shift of the whole trend line from 1986 on. Conclusion Our results are in contrast to those of many analyses of the health consequences of the Chernobyl accident and contradict the present radiobiological knowledge. As we are dealing with highly aggregated data, other causes or artefacts may explain the observed effects. Hence, the findings should be interpreted with caution and further independent evidence should be sought.

/pdf/european-stillbirth-proportions-before-and-after-the-4t64ly5qv6.pdf

European stillbirth proportions before and after the Chernobyl accident.

As has been shown by the authors of a paper recently published in this journal, a deviation from a long-term trend in perinatal mortality within the former Federal Republic of Germany occurred in 1987, i.e. 1 year following the Chernobyl disaster. It is the aim of this study to make a comparison between the areas of the state Bavaria, Germany, with different fallout levels as well as between the observed and expected numbers of perinatal deaths relating to these areas. The expected numbers of perinatal deaths, defined as external standard, were derived from the remainder of the former FRG. Testing an a priori formulated hypothesis revealed no differences in the temporal development of perinatal mortality between the areas with different fallout levels and subsequent exposures. Including May 1986 into the analysis revealed a significant increase during the first 3 months after the accident, which is due to an excess in May alone. Since no elevated radiation risks for the last days in utero are known, the additional Chernobyl radiation exposure is not plausible as a causative agent. Further analyses on stillbirths showed an increase in Southern Bavaria during the first 2 years following the accident. Later on, the rates were comparable to the expected values again.

E. van Santen

Papers

Perinatal mortality in bavaria, germany, after the chernobyl reactor accident